The sales are at their lowest. Stocks are kept to a minimum. The situation of the new housing market has been at its worst in the urban area of ​​Toulouse for 12 years. An alarming observation of the Real Estate Observer, who does not see an optimistic outlook in the short term. Jean-Philippe Jarno, president of the organization and CEO of Urbis Réalisations, discusses the causes and consequences of such a situation.

Le Journal Toulousain: What is the situation of the new housing market in Toulouse?
Jean-Philippe Jarno: Today, this market is really under tension in the urban area of ​​Toulouse, because of the offer. We have never experienced such a low volume of homes put up for sale since 2009, and the subprime crisis. Logically, this phenomenon leads to another: the decline in sales. When there is nothing left to sell, we don’t buy! And what remains to be sold becomes very expensive!
For the third quarter of 2021 alone, the situation is even more catastrophic. Compared to a normal year like 2019, the debt of homes put up for sale in the Toulouse urban area is 59%. Knowing that already in 2019, the number of new properties for sale had already fallen by 15% compared to 2017.
It is therefore a crisis. But it is unique in that the economy is booming, even overheating in some sectors. And like many industries, we lack raw materials. Concerning us, it is building land that we are talking about, as well as building permits.

JT: The supply of new housing is therefore in free fall, but what about demand?
DDJ: Demand remains strong. As proof, we recorded + 10% of transactions compared to last year, while listings for sale fell by 6%. Thus, we consume more goods put on the market than we produce. The stock was then attacked and reduced by around 1,000 homes per semester, reaching 3,793 at the end of September in the Toulouse urban area. It was 6,600 in 2018. And if we continue on the same path, we will only be able to offer 3,000 housing units on offer at the end of the year.

“Production costs will increase, and by extension, selling prices”

JT: Can we talk about a shortage?
DDJ: Yes, clearly, and for a while. This term can be used for two years already. The trend was already visible before the Covid-19 crisis, and the pandemic has only precipitated it. This shortage is due to three concomitant factors: the epidemic and its confinements, the municipal elections which dried up the issuance of building permits, and the global economic crisis following that of Covid-19. Concretely, land is becoming scarce, building permits are very hard to obtain and are often the subject of appeals, and the price of raw materials soaring. Result: production costs will increase, and by extension, selling prices as well. However, this is not yet visible.

JT: You talk about the causes of this shortage and talk about the Municipalities. Can we still, two years later, invoke this reason?
DDJ: During the elections, many elected officials understood that there was strong resistance from the population, and therefore voters, to construction. People are generally in favor, as long as projects don’t take shape close to home. The candidates for municipal elections are sensitive to it. It was therefore more complicated to obtain building permits. And even after the election was over, we did not find the same dynamic as before. The wait-and-see policy reigns in this area.
In addition, the Local Urban Plan (Plui-H) has been canceled. As a result, many building permits have not been issued. And the situation is still blocked on that side.

JT: While waiting for a new Plui-H, a Metropolitan Housing Pact has just been adopted. Is it enough for you to have the visibility you need?
DDJ: It’s better than nothing. As such, the mayors of the towns of Toulouse metropolis have clearly expressed their wish to build 7,000 new homes per year. But a pact does not commit them in any way. So I am waiting to see this will wondering.
Not to mention that the announced volume is not necessarily sufficient. It all depends on whether this figure includes only building permits or the start of work. Because the appeals against real estate projects multiply. It has become a national sport. A quarter of the programs are subject to appeal. Thus, if they are included in the number announced, only 5,500 homes will actually be built.

“The situation is alarming”

JT: What impact will this shortage situation have on new property prices?
DDJ: They will increase. Take the example of Montpellier where prices have climbed 6.8% in one year (+ 11% over two years). Or Bordeaux, which has recorded + 5.5% in two years. In Toulouse, we are only 2.8% increase since 2020 (3.9% since 2019). So the price trend in the Pink City remains relative. But if nothing happens, we reach the same prices as in Montpellier or Bordeaux.

JT: At the same time, it seems that the situation in Sicoval’s territory is less tense. How to explain it?
DDJ: Efficiency. We saw quite a few offerings in the third quarter of 2021, but these are small volumes since there were only 97 (compared to 109 in the first quarter and 120 in the second quarter). It should also be noted that this housing is concentrated in three municipalities: Castanet-Tolosan, Baziège and Ramonville-Saint-Agne. In addition, the permits can take 6 to 9 months before being filed, and about 6 more months to be studied by the municipalities, the figures observable today are the result of files drawn up already a year ago and half or even more. Thus, it remains difficult to draw conclusions from these statistics.

JT: What are the prospects for the new housing sector?
DDJ: I don’t see anything in the distance that could be a little reassuring. The situation is alarming. And no signal on the horizon that allows us to hope for a revival of building permits. The temporality being long in this type of approach, since one and a half is necessary between the moment when we locate a site and when we obtain the sesame, we will not see any improvement before 2023. It will take years to find acceptable stocks. , the level of 2018. We must double the number of homes put up for sale to go up the slope. The construction sector is therefore preparing to be permanently damaged.