Through David Saint Sernin
“From the summer of 2021, we really have a problem with a market that is no longer replenished with a historically low level of sales in Toulouse. We come back to figures quite close to those of the subprime crisis (2008-2009). The machine is almost broken. There will be damage ”.
The table drawn up by Jean-Philippe Jarno, President of the Observer, the observatory for new housing in the Toulouse conurbation is final.
A historically low stock
The numbers too. With 3 793 housing units in stock, the Toulouse new housing market went into shortage.
This stock is much lower than that of 2018 (6,593 housing units in stock, editor’s note). We have to go back to the last global financial crisis, that of the subprime mortgage loans, to find a lower stock in Toulouse (2,723 housing units in stock in 2010 according to figures from the Observer).
Driven by a demand that remains strong and a slow-moving construction market, Toulouse is selling less housing than it produces …
” The damage is done “
“At 3e quarter of 2021, the drop in sales compared to the 3e quarter 2019 is 59%. Not many industries in the world could recover from such a drop. The damage is done for the next two years, ”notes Jean-Philippe Jarno who admits to being skeptical about a possible rebound in the coming months.
The Toulouse metropolitan area is doubly impacted. Like other French metropolises, Toulouse Métropole has to deal with a dwindling supply of land. Like other cities, it also follows the usual cycles of pre- and post-electoral periods that are not very conducive to the issuance of permits (municipal in 2020 and presidential in 2022)
The canceled local urban plan
To these economic problems has been added a structural problem. In 2021, the Toulouse local town planning plan, an administrative document which since 2019 has governed town planning rules in the 37 municipalities and 46,000 hectares of the Metropolis, was indeed canceled by the Toulouse administrative court, completely reshuffling cards and bringing promoters into a period of uncertainty.
If Toulouse Métropole has just voted for a “metropolitan housing pact” which incorporates the fundamentals of the 2019 PLUi-H, nothing allows us to say from when the stated objective – to build 7,000 housing units per year in the metropolis – can be achieved.
Prices at the highest … which will increase
What is certain, however, is that under the effect of still strong demand and a scarcity of supply, new prices will rise again from 2022 when they are already at most. high in 2021.
At 3e quarter of the year 2021, for the first time in the urban area of Toulouse, the price per m² has passed the 4000 euros mark (excluding parking). In the space of a year, this represents an increase of 100 euros.
” It’s only a beginning. We are clearly on increases for the coming months. Construction costs are rising. New standards will arrive and will increase construction constraints. The current shortage will necessarily increase prices, ”said Jean-Philippe Jarno.
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