We will also wait for admission to the club of the rich
The number of Eurosceptics is increasing
In the last six months, during two short-term sessions of two previous parliaments, they did not broadcast regularly, this is one of the main priorities for Bulgaria – joining the eurozone on 01.01.2024, as well as one of the other priorities – joining the Organization. for economic cooperation and development (OECD or OECD). Even more than Bulgaria, unfavorable messages (signals) are broadcast, which are harmful in the implementation of these two goals and they are reduced to:
– the predominant spending of funds for consumption, instead of spending more money on Bulgarian business, incl. for investments, modernization, economic development, innovations and education in the updated Law on the State Budget for 2021;
– the presence of increased inflation in our country and in the EU and it is possible that Bulgaria will significantly exceed the definitions by the so-called Maastricht criteria budget deficit of 3%. The EC has allowed EU member states for 2020 and 2021 to temporarily ignore this criterion, but in no case should the budget support be overstated in this direction and the budget deficit should be maintained at acceptable levels. , etc. f. it is possible to exceed it slightly, but not more than 2%. This is not an easy task, as employers’ organizations in business and various associations and groups of the population “pour” all sorts of demands to the Council of Ministers for compensation and assistance to inflation. The government has already agreed in advance after a new second update of Budget 2021 by the Budget Parliament in December. to pay the business representatives BGN 50 for each required megawatt hour of electricity. In the future, great care must be taken as to which demands should be met and which should not, as it is very possible that our country will fall into the so-called debt spiral if all demands are met before the election.
– a solid delay in the submission to the EC of the Recovery and Sustainability Plan, which is not the history of either the government of Borisov’s cabinet 3 or the first caretaker government. At a meeting of the Committee on Budget and Finance in August, during the discussion of the first reading of the bill on updating the budget of the former Minister of Finance Asen Vassilev, he assured the deputies that this will happen as soon as possible. Bulgaria is entitled to 13% of about 9 billion euros. advance payment according to the plan in 2021 (16 pages of the EU are already spending it), but the time for approval is provided, this cannot happen in 2021. The promises of the caretaker Prime Minister Stefan Yanev that this will happen in the middle of October are positive and it is good to finally happen, but it is quite clear that by the end of each year of Bulgaria (respectively the Bulgarian business and the Bulgarian consumer in the period of high inflation) will not receive a single euro?!? For the non-receipt of about 1 billion euros, which must enter the Bulgarian economy and partly in Bulgarian households, wine has the same as the last regular government, which ruled Bulgaria until May 11 this year. but did not have the courage then to submit the plan (the deadline was April 30 this year), as well as our two caretaker governments.
– Attempt to replace the Governor of the BNB in violation of the usual practice of electing a governor of our central bank, including ignoring the regular deadline for submission of applications (the deadline is only three days?!?) and non-compliance with the procedure for their hearing in the Committee on Budgets. This was thwarted by the MPs in the plenary hall, but it is a very bad sign, which is certainly reported by the EC and the ECB. My firm position is that by January 1, 2024 (and at least one year after these data), when I hope Bulgaria will join the eurozone, the BNB should be managed by the current Governor and Deputy Governor, who heads the Issuance Department, who are entitled to another term. They enjoy a very high level of trust in the ECB’s management as well as in the financial environment. Proof of this is the certificate of the Governor of the BNB with the highest rating “A” in the annual ranking of central bankers in the authoritative publication “Global Finance” in 2021 (known as Global Finance World’s Best Central Banker), and before that and the first edition award for 2019. This award is presented during daily meetings with the governors of the IMF’s central banks and the World Bank.
The good news is that on June 30, 2021 it will be published on the BNB website that it will be prepared within the draft national plan for the introduction of the euro in the Republic of Bulgaria, but this will not be mentioned by the ministers in the first official administration, as well as not to be discussed by the deputies in the Budget Committee in the already terminated 46th National Assembly. However, there is no report of the ministers of the two caretaker governments, as implemented after the adoption of the adopted Plans (Strategies) of the Council of Ministers for joining the euro area, as well as how far everything in the relevant activities has reached regarding the well-developed project in July 2021. for the National Plan for Introduction of the Euro in the Republic of Bulgaria, established by the Coordination Council for Membership of the Republic of Bulgaria for Membership in the Eurozone. It is right that the new employee of the Minister of Finance periodically (at least every month) to inform the public about his activities in this regard.
It is also necessary to quickly begin preparations for a massive awareness campaign for the population and business to ensure accession to Bulgaria in the euro area, which should begin at least one year before the deadline 01.01.2024 and end one year after it. It is possible that such an explanatory campaign on a more limited scale is currently conducted by representatives of the Council of Ministers, the BNB and commercial banks, given that we are in a pre-election situation and in times of high inflation and is among the society of sentiments such as: ” It’s good that we are not in the eurozone, because as prices would increase more than multiplied by two?!? “.
There are serious dangers that more and more parties and coalitions will join the ranks of the so-called Eurosceptics and will build their election campaign on the basis of Bulgaria’s recommendation not to hurry with the adoption of the euro as its national currency or not at all. the euro is adopted in our country, because in general the eurozone will soon “fall apart”. Of course, this is not true at all. Other parties plan to use social and modern highly pro-inflationary measures in their election platforms, that if it is eventually implemented, the budget deficit will exceed 10-12%, which if it happens, our accession to the eurozone will be a mirage! Third policies, for which financial management is TERRA INCOGNITA, do not teach that it is very good to adopt the euro as the Bulgarian national currency, but why should we not enter the Banking Union to save banks from other troubled European countries? The latter judgment is generally true, but our participation in the Banking Union is an exceptional condition for joining ERM 2 on July 10, 2020, which is a condition for the adoption of the euro by the Republic of Bulgaria on 01.01.2024.