Sarigiannis on CNN Greece: Necessary increase of control in the new context of freedoms
For escalation of fourth pandemic wave warns Demosthenes Sarigiannis, while characterizing the new measures that come into force from tomorrow, Saturday, “increased risk” where possibly lead to an increase in it spread of the new coronavirusIn fact, in order to reduce the risk of the new measures, the professor of Environmental Engineering of AUTh asks 40% increase in diagnostic tests in the community, including them vaccinatedThe
“The forecasting models we have at the moment, based on the current situation, predict small increase from next week, which will begin to accelerate towards October 25 and then escalate more severely than early NovemberThis is the forecast nationwide, there are areas like northern Greece that guide the developments “warns Mr. Sarigiannis, speaking to CNN GreeceThe
Asked whether the forecasting models are affected and how by the measures announced by the Minister of Health Thanos Plevris, on Wednesday, he answers:
“In terms of the measures they have taken, there is a risk. This is because each vaccinated person has an approximately 13% chance of becoming infected and in turn becoming infectedSo even if we are all vaccinated, the chances of infection are not eliminated. This is a fact “.
“The measures themselves are intended to give a positive and completely practical incentive to them unvaccinated who are skeptical and have some doubts, that the vaccine will make their lives easier visually it is worthwhile to be vaccinated. If the motivation works, which I think has a chance because he thinks it is aimed at those who have doubts, then it can to increase the rate of vaccination which is the most important parameter to reduce dispersion, ”he explains.
“The truth is that the measures have an increased risk, they increase the chances of infection. Their application will give the answer as to whether you will lead to an increase or decrease in dispersion. What I have already suggested, in order to reduce the risk involved, is to increase the tests that are doneIf the tests increase by about 40% – it is not impossible, we did it last May – then we could have better control of the pandemic “so that even if the measures lead to a greater dispersion, the situation will not escape”, he underlines.
Mr. Sarigiannis’s proposal does not exclusively concern the “red” areas of the epidemiological map, but the whole territory. If the issue of priority should not have been raised, clearly the “red” areas were promoted, he explains.
“The increase in tests also includes the decision for the diagnostic test of the vaccinated,” the professor emphasizes.
As he points out, “we have to take into account that we are heading towards the most difficult hidden period of time which means we are closed in and more synchronicity”. “Therefore the chances of dispersion increase, we are not in the same situation as in May. “Then yes we revealed the third wave but me mainly outside and that’s why we saw the terrible revelation of June” he adds.
“March 2022 the wall of immunity if vaccination rates remain”
Asked if the wall of immunity is still a sought-after and realistic goal, given the administration of a third dose of the vaccine to those over 50 years old, Mr. Sarigiannis is categorical.
“The wall of immunity is in demand, it is the only way to defeat the pandemic until it becomes endemic.”
“The goal that we did not achieve for 65-75% fully vaccinated in September made sense to achieve the immunity with the lowest possible number of deaths or patients with long covid symptomsHe reminds and estimates that with the vaccination rates that are in force today, it will be achieved in March 2022.
Finally, he points out that natural immunity has a greater risk, citing as an example the 20-year-old who died of coronavirus who refuted his myth “young people get nothing”.
“The stakes are clear: either I get a vaccine and I get immunity without getting sick and you do not want to imagine possible side effects – which statistically is not the case – I take the risk – or I take the risk and get sick, hoping to scapularize it. We expect how the unvaccinated will react to the new measures “concludes Mr. Sarigiannis