The actors of the velvet revolution are missing, there is anger instead of fear, they describe the personality choices
The first round of the presidential election is at its peak. Already during Saturday, it will be clear which two candidates will compete for the post of head of state in the second round. For the third time, the Czechs choose the president in a direct election. The winner will replace Miloš Zeman, who served two terms as president. The constitution prohibits him from running for a third time. Voter turnout is high. Aktuálně.cz describes the trends that make this year’s elections different from the previous two.
For the first time, with the presidential election of candidates, they symbolically separated themselves from the events of November 1989. No one aspires to constitutional office who is actively moving towards the Supreme Velvet Revolution, which ended 40 years of communist totalitarianism in the country. In 2013 and 2018, Miloš Zeman was such a candidate, in the latter also Michal Horáček.
However, the presidential race this year also brings other news. For the first time, an accused person is running for the head of state. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš had this label for most of his campaigns before, on January 9, Judge Jan Šott acquitted him without authority of the charge of subsidy fraud in the Čapí hnízdo Farm case. A trio of favorites also emerged from the campaign. Babiš, Petr Pavel and Danuše Nerudová have practically the same chances of winning.
Economist Nerudová is the first woman who has a real chance of becoming president. Two people are also candidates, Babiš and General Pavel, who contracted with the secret services of the previous regime. Babiš was an agent of the StB. Pavel completed an intelligence course, which also prepared participants for a career in espionage against the enemies of the Soviet bloc. And for the first time, the unsuccessful actors of the previous ones – senators Pavel Fischer and Marek Hilšer – participated in the elections.
Anger at the government
Aktuálně.cz approached three personalities to try to find new features of this year’s presidential contest on a wider scale. Constitutional lawyer Jan Kysel, sociologist Jan Herzmann and media historian Martin Groman. They cite, among other things, calmer campaigns or greater caution of the main favorites as examples.
“In the previous elections, there was a much stronger element of fear, especially of immigrants. It was imaginary, but very effectively brought in by Miloš Zeman in particular,” observes Kysela, a professor at the Faculty of Law of Charles University.
This year, however, I perceive a different emotion that Babiš and Jaroslav Bašta are working with. They come across as angry men who want to intensify that feeling in the electorate. “Anger at the government for not doing something it should do,” says Kysela. Babiš accuses the government of Petr Fiala from the ODS of an alleged unwillingness to deal with the economic crisis. Bašta immediately threatens to recall her after her eventual election.
“A much calmer election”
“The elections are much calmer than in the past, as far as the candidates’ appearances are concerned. They seem to have become rationalized. It’s still a decent show, but the candidates no longer need to tell us when they lost their estates or how the squires behaved in the Middle Ages ,” media historian Martin Groman alludes to Miloš Zeman’s behavior in previous campaigns.
In this regard, constitutional expert Kysela also agrees with him. It underlines the decrease in aggression among candidates for the highest constitutional office. “It seems to me that the level of negative campaigning is still quite bearable this year. Those people are not extremely defensive about each other, which I consider to be one of the relatively positive moments,” he states.
According to Groman, due to Zeman’s non-participation, the element against which everyone is determined has fallen away. The three main favorites are balanced. In relation to this, the media historian points out that this was reflected in the energy that their teams put into the campaign. Above all, Neruda and Pavla.
“In their camps, you can see an effort not to repeat mistakes, not to be prematurely triumphalistic. Last time, Drahoš’s team calculated that they would get the votes of Horáček, Fischer and Hilšer in the second round and have a clear victory. In the end, they ended up 150,000 votes below the line,” Groman refers to the elections from in 2018. “Everybody’s the best now. Few try to claim a winner before it happens,” he says.
November’s witnesses left
“For me, the biggest change is that the generation associated with November 1989 has left the scene, although in the case of Jaroslav Bašta this is not entirely true. But it is not about any of the main candidates,” says sociologist and statistician Jan Herzmann.
The incumbent President Zeman spoke at demonstrations during the same revolution and participates in the activities of the anti-communist movement Civic Forum. His representatives helped bring Horáček, later Zeman’s presidential rival, to the negotiating table with the government of Communist Prime Minister Ladislav Adamek.
Jaroslav Bašta is a signatory of the Charter 77 statement, which criticized the then totalitarian power for not respecting human and civil rights. Today’s SPD movement led by Tomio Okamura was also involved in dissent, but he was not a direct participant in the November Revolution.
“This year, it will be decided between, the incoming political track was created only after November 1989. In some cases, like Mrs. Nerudová, until well after a year. I personally consider this to be the biggest change,” provided the sociologist, who in 1990 founded the tradition of professional electoral surveys.