Should Lithuania respond to the mobilization in Belarus in the same way? The expert explained what would happen
“We should react. If mobilization is announced, let’s remember from history, neighboring states also announce mobilization. We cannot leave the wing of our state undefended”, V. Malinionis said on the “Lietuvos ryto” TV show “Lietuva rytos” V. Malinionis.
What to expect and how to react?
As Russia continues to transport military equipment to Belarus, discussions continue as to whether the Kremlin will force A. Lukashenko to indicate that his country’s military has actively joined the war in Ukraine.
For the time being, the Baltarus dictator somehow managed to get away from such a whim of V. Putin.
According to the reserve colonel, the threat of Belarus joining the war remains, but the Ukrainians themselves assure that they do not see such a scenario for at least a couple of months.
“Of course, there is such a possibility, but we see that Russia, V. Putin has been pressuring A. Lukashenko for a long time to get involved in the war, but A. Lukashenka somehow manages to get away. Earlier he said that it was as if he was announcing a mobilization, but in reality it did not actually take place, only the census checks took place,” observed V. Malinionis.
He wondered how A.Lukashenka managed to deceive V.Putin, at least for the time being.
“It is possible that A.Lukashenka is again playing that game on V.Putin so that he is ready to do it, but the last moment says that Belarus is protecting the Russian-Belarusian Alliance from NATO threats from the West”, V.Malinionis.
True, according to the expert, even if Belarus does not join the war, the very threat that this might happen forces the Ukrainians to keep their forces concentrated in the northern part of the country, instead of using them in the hot areas of the front.
If V. Putin nevertheless succeeds in breaking A. Lukashenka’s hands, Lithuania and other neighbors of Belarus would have to take action, emphasizes the reserve colonel.
“If some kind of army was being built up in our immediate neighborhood, of course, we would also need to activate certain NATO plans and activate the plans for the defense of the state in Lithuania.
I would think it would be a reservist activation. What would it be called? Maybe it would be called mobilization, I don’t know, but here, as the saying goes, the defense council, the state leadership should make a decision. I believe they are thinking about it.
Of course, we need to remember that we are a NATO country, according to Article 3 we defend our territory ourselves, but if we are attacked, Article 5 is activated and all NATO countries come to the rescue. It is clear that you need to prepare for such scenarios, you need certain decisions when and when decisions will be made.
I believe that the NATO Alliance is talking about it, discussing it and making our decisions and will make timely decisions,” the person hoped.
Why do some politicians still not want the crushing of Russia?
The reserve colonel also commented on France’s decision to break the ice in the long-running debate over the supply of tanks to Ukraine. earlier in the week, the news broke that the French AMX-10RC wheeled tanks have strengthened the armed forces of Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron has reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that France will deliver Ukrainian-made AMX-10RC/RCR light tanks armed with a 105mm semi-automatic cannon capable of defeating Russian main battle tanks.
V. Malinionis welcomed such a step by the French, but noted that if the West had acted more decisively at the beginning of the war, we would now have a different observation in Ukraine. Would the Ukrainians celebrate the victory in such a case?
“You see, it’s hard to say so unequivocally, but yes. They probably would have at least taken back more territories. Of course, the initial indecision of our Western partners from the first days of the war also gave results.
Another thing, NATO as an organization works as individual states are not very quick decision makers. Any democratic organization is so clumsy and slow compared to dictatorships,” he lamented.
However, the expert is happy that when some processes are already in full swing in the West, they “work like a good machine”.
“At the very beginning of the war, it was scary to even think about the Javelin. It has been said that if we give Ukraine Javelins to fire at Russian tanks, Russia will think that this is direct NATO intervention.
And now, let’s see, they are already giving HIMARS, and they are talking about airplanes and even tanks,” said V. Malinionis.
“Progress is huge and the democratic machine is on fire. This is good,” added the message to Ukraine.
The expert singled out the successfully revived defense industry sector in the West as a positive change: more ammunition is being produced, the manufacturing industry receives so many orders that it barely has time to turn.
“This is bad news for the Russian leadership. They will certainly never achieve such efficiency,” he assured.
True, according to the reserve colonel, the reluctance of some politicians to completely crush Russia is worrying. It is said that the prevailing opinion is that if Ukraine wins very soon, and Russia is absolutely crushed, “it may fall into several or a dozen pieces, and it is not clear whose hands will end up with a nuclear weapon.”
“For this reason, the other camp is pressing that it is impossible to allow Ukraine to win too quickly and it is better to support Russia, wear it down with the kind of war that is going on now.
But, it seems, according to the decisions that we are seeing now, the side that is more favorable to the victory of Ukraine is taking the upper hand”, concluded V. Malinionis.