Putin’s “Russian World” and “Schrödinger’s cat”: what do they have in common?
Columnist Harun Sidorov discusses why, under “Russian nationalist” Vladimir Putin, the number of Russian suppliers and the rate of attrition are only held back by the large volume of assimilation of non-Russians.
The data of the census of the population of Russia on the capture of the composition of the inhabitants of the country are already actively interested in the authors and readers of “Idel. Realii” in relation to different peoples: Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvash and Udmurts, Mari, “mordovians”, Kalmyks.
In almost all cases, for the development of events, these results are not happy, in many they are quite sad. What seems obvious is the effectiveness of the Kremlin’s construction of its “Russian world”, in which the Russification of non-Russian peoples takes place. However, judging by the census data, mainly to the Russian itself, Putin’s “Russian world” is approximately like “Schrödinger’s cat” – if you look at it from one side, it is alive and well, and if you look at it from the other side, it is dying out.
At the same time, it should be noted that the data are rewritten for 2021. First, because such a presumption should be a presumption of absolutely widespread consumption in post-Soviet Russia, whether it is about the division of “elections”, combat losses or censuses. Secondly, because it was this census that collected a record number of complaints, which makes its results from isolated cases among all censuses conducted in the country.
Nevertheless, according to the detention of the Russians, to my surprise even by official data, these censuses confirmed the correctness my predictionmade a year ago. Exactly this:
“Recent years appear with the myth of 80% of Russians in Russia, who give them carte blanche on its Constitution into a “unitary Russian state” with increased assimilation of “multinationals”. In general, 77.71% of Russians enrolled in Russian. Russian nationalist “Today, this figure realistically does not exceed 75, or even 70%.”
Exactly this was confirmed even by the official data on the census, according to the composition of persons authorized by their nationality in Russian, out of the total number of rewritten reports, it is no longer 77.71%, as in 2010, 71.73%. At the same time, in absolute terms, Russians in Russia for another decade “the main Russian nationalist” Putin by 2021, it has become less by 5,437,717 people, since at least there were 111,016,896 people in the census, and according to the last one already 105,579,179. .
All this took place already before the start in 2022 of the big Russian-Ukrainian war, general, including demographic, the consequences of which are still being assessed before its completion. Although catastrophic consequences are already taking place for many peoples of the country, including Russians. the incredible death toll of hundreds of thousands, and possibly millions of men of reproductive age, and the exodus from countries of hundreds of thousands, and possibly millions of other such men, it will be about the development of fertility due to uncertainty in the future. In addition, if we talk specifically about Russians, then the possible conquest of the “Russian world” in the war, which he ideologically endowed with an existential character, may turn out for Russian identity have dramatic consequences in the form of an outflow of its carriers, whether in other identities simply or nowhere.
Speaking of the 2021 census location, one of them cannot go unmentioned. Against the backdrop of an absolute collapse of the population or relative indicators, primarily from among the most frequently occurring, among the main winners of the last census was a group that increased its share5,629,429 people in 2010 to 10,965,330 people per year2,021 27%. This group is people who did not indicate their nationality. And although critics are rewriting, they rightly point out that in this case there was such a dynamic. general message relativization of ethnicity in general. Moreover, one of the highest indicators of those who refused ethnic selectivity was given by the demographic center of the country – the Moscow agglomeration, among whose inhabitants there are 22.68% of such people, or almost 3 million people. In the back of her head in this, as usual, the “second capital”, St. Petersburg, is breathing, where 15.79% or under a million people (884,678) got such people.
In principle, this could be the end of discussions about the effectiveness of Putin’s policy, which from 2022 demographic storyteller has already turned into a frank demographic gravedigger. However, there are several other aspects.
So, the Bashkir politician Ruslan Gabbasov it is rightly justified that with a pronounced increase in the number of Russians in Russia as a whole in Bashkortostan, their number increased from 1,432,906 to 1,509,246 people. Interestingly, in Tatarstan the situation is about the same – the number of Russians from 1,501,369 people in 2010 increased to 1,574,804 people in 2021. In Chuvashia, the absolute number of Russians decreased, but the relative number increased: 348,515 people and 26.53% in 2010 and 329,991 people and 27.80% in 2021. Despite the fact that the Chuvash in Chuvashia in the same period dramatically decreased both the absolute and relative population: 889,268 people and 67.69% in 2010 against 684,930 people and 57.70% in 2021.
And now let’s see how things are with Russian demography in lesion and demographic heart disease what could be described as a Russian ethnos.
Vladimir region: 1,201,693 people in 2021 versus 1,288,716 people in 2010, total loss of 87,023 people or 6.75% of the population of the Russian population.
Yaroslavl region: 995,413 people in 2021 vs. 1,172,188 people in 2010, a total decrease of 176,775 people or 15.08% of Russian population density.
Novgorod region: 481,858 people in 2021 versus 560,280 people in 2010, a total decrease of 78,422 people or 13.99% of Russia’s population density.
Tver region: 1,022,391 people in 2021 vs. 1,172,007 people in 2010, a total decrease of 149,616 people or 12.76% of Russian population density.
Oryol region: 631,606 people in 2021 versus 739,019 people in 2010, a total decrease of 107,413 people or 14.53% of Russia’s population density.
You can go on and on, but the meaning is clear – the indigenous, authentic Russian population in their natural regions is dying out at the speed of other extinction strikers among the fluctuations of peoples. The disease or even its development in some republics, apparently, due to the assimilation of weaker peoples.
For example, in the same Bashkortostan, the growth of the population of Russians “for some reason” coincided with the decline in the number of Fino-Ugric and Orthodox-Turkic peoples: “Mordovians” were 20,300 people, and now there are 10,970; there were 21,477 Udmurts, and now there are 17,149; there were 103,658 Maris, and there were 84,988; There were 107,450 Chuvash people, and there were 79,950.
A similar dynamics of population growth among the population is observed in the population in Tatarstan. For example, “Mordovians” were 19,156 people, and it became 12,055; there were 23,454 Udmurts, and now there are 21,327; there were 18,848 Maris, and there were 15,666; finally, there were 116,252 Chuvash people, and there were 90,474.
On the defenselessness before Russification of precisely the Finno-Ugric and Orthodox-Turkic peoples of Russia and data on the decline in the share of their throne ethnic groups in the republics. In Mordovia from 37.10% to 31.94%, in Mari El from 42.88% to 36.36%, in Udmurtia from 26.99% to 20.63%, and finally in Chuvashia, as already noted, with 67.69% to 57.70%.
The situation is quite different among national peoples, the use of Russification protects the religious and / or racial barrier. During the same time, Kalmyks increased their weight in their republic from 56.22% to 59.57% (with a decrease in the weight of Russians from 29.61% to 24.51%), Tuvans from 80.96% to 83.10% ( with a decrease in the weight of Russians from 16.05% to 9.48%), Yakuts from 45.54% to 47.13% (with a decrease in the weight of Russians from 41.15% to 27.81%). So far, there is an unstable position in the republics and Tatars with the Bashkirs: a slight decrease from 52.21% to 53.15% among the Tatars and a slight increase from 29.5% to 31% among the Bashkirs.
There is nothing to say about the highly Islamized northeastern Caucasus, where the proportion of Russians among the population has long been a known statistical error. Over the past ten years, and in the republics of the North-Western Caucasus, where the demographic situation in Russia remains quite strong. Thus, in the Karachay-Cherkess region, the share of Russians fell from 31.6% to 27.16%, while the growth of Karachays from 41.0% to 43.75%, Circassians from 11.9% to 12.51%, Abazins from 7 .8% to 8.01%, Nogais from 3.3% to 3.69. Processes are underway in Kabardino-Balkaria: the share of Russians has fallen from 22.5% to 19.32%, while the single weight of Balkars has increased from 12.7% to 13.37%, and Kabardino-Circassians from 57.2% to 58.51 %.
In general, if we sum up all these processes, then Putin’s “Russian world” really resembles “Schrödinger’s cat”, which is either alive or dead, depending on how you look at it. It can grow only through the conversion of non-Russians to Russians, apparently from three main sources. Firstly, due to the pre-assimilation of the Finno-Ugric and Orthodox-Turkic peoples of Northern Eurasia. Secondly, due to the introduction of the population of the annexed southeastern territories of Ukraine into the Russian population, which is presented as their “return” to the Russians. Thirdly, due to the de-ethnization of Russian identity and its totality among peoples who are unlikely to separate from their ethnicity, but together with it accept Russian as “civilian” (“Russian Chechens”, “Russian Dargins”, “Russian Tajiks” ). “etc.). Well, what about the fact that the share of “Great Russians” in this synthetic “Russian world” will be fully consistent with Putin’s views on the Russian, as a constantly created and expanding, and not as an established folk ethnos.
Another thing is that such a construction has no ethnic support within itself and rests on the state. What will happen to it in the event of its next collapse is a question.
The point of view of the authors, the articles are covered under the heading “Opinions”, low-quality assessment of the editors.
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