Turkey is holding NATO’s expansion of Finland and Sweden hostage
Long after the June 2022 summit, when Western leaders had hoped to cement the Nordic nations’ entry into NATO, Finland and Sweden’s accession remains blocked by two stops, Turkey and Hungary, which have yet to ratify the necessary protocols.
While Hungary has committed to do so when its legislature reconvenes in Februaryuncertainty about when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will agree — and the possibility that he could delay until after Turkish elections next year — presents the Biden administration with a dilemma as it tries to maintain a pro-Ukraine coalition that has already been tested by steep energy prices and domestic politics .
The delay also highlights the ability of a single NATO member to derail the alliance’s priorities and underscores the complexity of US-Turkish ties at a moment when Erdogan is providing critical military support to Ukraine while deepening economic ties with Russia and threatening an offensive into northern Syria . that US military officials fear could put US troops at risk.
“The pressure is building from the West,” said Gonul Tol, a Turkey scholar at the Washington, DC-based Middle East Institute. With Turkey putting the alliance on hold, she said, U.S. officials are reluctant to let Erdoğan “use the NATO accession card to extract concessions on other files.”
Ahead of talks with Blinken at the State Department on Thursday, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said Sweden has already taken many steps to accommodate the accession memorandum signed by Turkey, Finland and Sweden in June – including changes to Sweden’s constitution that will come into force in January to tighten anti-terror rules , an important Turkish requirement.
Stockholm has also announced an end to an informal embargo against arms sales to Turkey and in recent weeks extradited a Kurdish man with alleged links to the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a long insurgency against Erdogan’s government. The extradited man had unsuccessfully sought asylum in Sweden.
Billström expressed hope that Turkey would move shortly to ratify the two countries’ entry into NATO, but declined to cite any specific timeline.
“Any delay outside of the most essential is of course very, very bad,” he said in an interview. “I think everyone has to take their responsibility on board and do the job they have to do.”
After months of waiting, NATO officials have begun to apply some public pressure on Turkey. During a visit to Istanbul early last month, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized that Finland and Sweden have done well on their side of the deal.
“It is time to welcome Finland and Sweden as full members of NATO,” he said in a statement together with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. “In these dangerous times, it is even more important to complete their connection to prevent misunderstandings or miscalculations in Moscow.”
The joining of two countries that punch above their weight militarily would give NATO a boost and represent a further setback for Moscow, adding 800 miles to Russia’s border with the alliance.
It is not the first time that political unrest has delayed NATO’s expansion plans. 2019, Greece agreed to support Macedonia’s accession after a year-long delay – but only after the latter formally moved to change its name to North Macedonia.
It remains unclear what will satisfy Erdogan, who is trying to shore up his domestic support ahead of presidential elections expected in May or June 2023. This week, Turkey’s justice minister demanded the extradition of “all the terrorists Turkey wants” before his country will sign up to Sweden’s NATO bid, suggesting that just a handful of extraditions will not be enough.
Turkey’s concerns seem primarily to be directed at Sweden rather than Finland. Swedish media reported on Wednesday that the country’s justice minister issued an opinion that several additional individuals identified by Turkey in its NATO demands should not be extradited.
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, in a separate interview, said the delay had caused concern in NATO at a time of intense security upheaval in Europe. He cited apparent attacks on Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September — which Nordic nations considered sabotage — and an incident last month in which an explosion killed two people in Poland that raised fears of a Russian attack on NATO, but which U.S. and NATO officials said later that it appeared to be a faulty Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile.
“Fortunately, it was not an attack from Russia. But you can certainly imagine that if it had been an attack from Russia… it would have been a very complex integration for countries like Finland or Sweden: Do we associate ourselves with NATO’s decision and action when we are not covered by Article V?” Article V refers to NATO’s pledge of mutual defense.
US officials admit they have taken an arm’s-length approach to the accession debate, as they seek to avoid being drawn into a difficult discussion about the relationship with Ankara, parts of which have invoked congressional scrutiny.
While the Pentagon has said it supports a proposed deal to sell Ankara dozens of new F-16 fighter jets and upgrades for its current F-16 fleet, the sale is already facing opposition from some key lawmakers in part because of Turkey’s hostile relationship with Greece.
Criticism of the potential sale threatens to exacerbate congressional antagonism over Turkey’s 2020 purchase of Russia’s sophisticated S-400 air defense system, a deal that resulted in U.S. sanctions and Turkey’s exclusion from the U.S. F-35 stealth fighter program.
The Nato debate comes as US officials express concern that a threatened Turkish offensive against Kurdish soldiers in northern Syria could put hundreds of US troops there at risk, as happened in 2019 when Ankara launched a similar operation. A recent cross-border Turkish attack occurred within 150 meters of US personnel in Syria, US officials have said.
U.S. support for Kurdish fighters there, which Ankara sees as part of the PKK, has been a sticking point in U.S.-Turkey ties since that partnership began at the height of the war against Islamic State.
The Turkish Embassy in Washington could not immediately be reached for comment. Ankara’s long-standing security problems were underlined last month then an explosion on a busy street in Istanbul killed at least six people in an attack Turkish authorities blamed on the PKK.
U.S. officials acknowledge that Erdogan has occupied a unique, and often advantageous, position among NATO nations regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, supplying drones and other military equipment to Ukraine while serving as an intermediary between NATO and Russian President Vladimir Putin. and helped broker a crucial grain export deal.
Meanwhile, Turkey has deepened economic ties with Russia despite successive rounds of Western sanctions. And while Erdogan’s reluctance to ratify Finland and Sweden’s NATO bid may be primarily tied to domestic concerns, Western officials note that the delay only serves Putin, who has long complained about NATO’s encroachment.
Billström noted that there is only so much his government can do to try to pave the way for NATO entry.
“It is necessary to take into account that Sweden has an independent judiciary and that the government will not be able to do things outside these limitations,” he said.
He said Turkey must fulfill its own commitments, such as improving coordination to track down individuals who commit crimes in Sweden and then flee to Turkey.
Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expected Erdogan to give his assent just before the election, maximizing the political payoff of conciliatory measures by Finland and Sweden as “a full vindication of Turkey’s position.”
Cagaptay said that while U.S. officials may want to stay out of the Sweden-Finland-Turkey debate, they may need to step in to help close the deal.
“It’s a matter of who will blink first,” he said. “While [President] Biden says he’s not going to do anything, I think this is going to require a last-minute intervention from the White House.”