What does NRC | The future of the Netherlands
The Netherlands must continue to exist to its full extent, also in a hundred years’ time. It has not yet been fully thought through, but the cabinet seems to have made this choice. And it sees the Randstad as the permanent economic and demographic heart. Even after the death of sea levels due to climate change.
This common thread can be drawn with what will emerge from the bits of vision and policy that the good Rutte IV cabinet has been releasing in recent weeks. It often contains implicit, in-between sentences on topics such as water policy, plans for housing and infrastructure and the future of agriculture. But it does point in one direction.
Minister Mark Harbers of Infrastructure and Water Management (VVD) explicitly looked beyond 2100 when he told the House of Representatives that decisions had to be taken this decade on questions such as whether or not to build a second coastline, an artificial buffer against the higher sea. subsequent major projects take “about eighty years”, he remembered from previous projects. The mindset is clear again: keep the west.
It is a good direction – and it is not self-evident, given the climate change scenarios. All the more so as the government can be expected to also take into account the serious variants. According to the Scientific Council for Government Policy, this generally happens too little. And it makes quite a difference. According to the Sea Knowledge Programme, the sea will rise by 30 centimeters by 2100, in an apocalyptic scenario it will rise by 10 meters in the year 2300.
What is desired and at what price? Many government plans for spatial development for the reorganization of the Netherlands do not go beyond the medium term.
During that period, for example, a lot of construction had to be done in the U-shape from Hoorn to Nijmegen, around the ‘national rain barrel’ of the IJsselmeer and the Markermeer. To start with in the first ten years with 400,000 new homes in the region, plus 3.4 billion euros from a fund for economic growth. And investments in infrastructure, a large part of which is around Amsterdam.
This would – hopefully – turn out differently if the government assumed that the Netherlands would have to start giving up the west to the sea. Then it would now be time to start reducing the center of gravity of the infrastructure to the east – as Indonesia has already planned its capital (because Jakarta is sinking into the sea). This cabinet does not start such grand designs. Relatively few infrastructure investments are planned in Zeeland, Limburg and east of the Deventer-Zwolle line.
More thoroughness lies in thinking about the West. For example, the cabinet wants to stop building in the lowest-lying polders in the western Netherlands, where the oppressive sea is already causing more salinization of the surface and groundwater. A choice this week.
In any case, it is an example of the supportive national direction of spatial planning, which sometimes disrupts local plans. For example, in the Zuidplaspolder, where thousands of new homes are still being planned in the lowest-lying area of the Netherlands.
In its plans, the cabinet also considers the space needed after 2050 to reinforce dykes, dunes and dams (enthusiasts take note: there are also ‘water-retaining structures’ such as locks and bridges). Fortunately, the south and east are participating: in the flood plains along the major rivers, building is (even) less allowed.
Different perspectives are needed to set the framework for the short-term dilemmas. Take the agricultural, housing and traffic projects that are now stalled due to the inadequate nitrogen policy. If there is a solution for this – and if new blockages are led to the lagging water quality before 2027 – it is very important that the right projects are given priority: the forward-looking ones. That costs less and limits the risks for residents, entrepreneurs and nature. Unfortunately, the government’s vision on the future of agriculture that has just been drawn up is still too vague.
The long term also deserves a more explicit and open debate. The climate summit in Egypt showed once again that the pursuit of a post-fossil world must become a serious process – and at the same time that this will not be enough even with unexpected success. The future of (also) the Netherlands will be determined by that other leg of climate policy: adapting to new living conditions. With more extreme weather, more severe river flooding, higher temperatures and less drinking water.
The debate about this is deepening among experts. See Deltares researcher Marjolijn Haasnoot’s recent plea to anticipate the major sea level rise in the future now: the longer you wait, the smaller the number of options, she says. She thought a ‘sea level rise test’ for all current projects was a ‘nice idea’. There are also researchers who say: let the sea come.
And in the meantime, banks and other providers of mortgages and business loans are being advised to ‘price in’ climate risks more. And in between, people weigh climate risks into life decisions.
Developments must also form part of the government’s considerations. It may be a consideration to lay more railway lines in the east – above NAP. That’s wise. More needs to be done for the economic development of these areas.
This long-term debate needs to become more explicit. It can cause political shifts. For example, an alliance is conceivable between parties rooted in the east (CDA, ChristenUnie, perhaps after the provincial elections also BBB) and people in the west who prefer to approach climate change with the utmost caution and want to live and work higher up.
The views of civil servants at the many ministries that may be involved must also be made public; there are too many experts there to withdraw their polyphony from the public domain.
There must be confidence that the decision will ultimately be taken in the political arena, by a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Because dealing with water is the heart of Dutch democracy – the national survival strategy. For centuries.
A version of this article also appeared in the December 3, 2022 newspaper