New Corona prognosis – what to expect in Austria – Corona virus
In the coming weeks, more people will probably be infected with the corona virus again. This also has an impact on the hospitals.
6,385 new corona infections were recorded on Wednesday. For comparison: Exactly one week ago there were 5,518 new cases. After a long decline, there was now a significant increase again – More about thishere.
A new forecast for the development of the virus in Austria was already calculated by the COVID Prognosis Consortium on Tuesday. According to this current assessment, there is a “slightly increasing level of deposits” in the normal care area while the development in the intensive care area remains constant at the same time.
The wastewater signal in most federal states is now showing a significant increase, while the reported number of cases in all age groups is almost stagnant, according to the current paper. The past waves are characterized by a time delay in the increase in reported case numbers compared to the wastewater signal.
Faster spread through new types
The experts emphasize that the proportion of new variants (BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BQ.1.10) increased within a week from 21.2 percent in calendar week 45 to around 30 percent in the following week. Due to the increasing proportion of these variants in the infection process, an acceleration of the infection process is to be expected.
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To what extent or from when death is reflected in reported positive tests cannot be estimated. According to the experts, there is currently no reason to assume that the said omicron subvariants lead to increased hospitalizations. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that there will be a significantly higher COVID-specific system load than in the last two waves of infection in July and October.
Only contagious patients are reported
In the area of normal care, at the end of the forecast period on December 14th. Austria-wide, an occupancy level in the range of 738 to 1,193 occupied beds is expected, with an average of 938 beds. The 33% utilization limit of the intensive care units – this is considered a critical value – will be exceeded throughout Austria at the end of the forecast period with a 0.5 percent probability.
As to IST, the plaque prognosis did not differentiate between people whose hospitalization IST was causally related to COVID-19 and people who were originally hospitalized for another diagnosis. Since November 2nd, 2022, only infectious COVID-19 cases have been reported on normal wards. This results in a reduction in the reported number of COVID-19 deposits on the normal wards.