Gas price for Belarus in 2023
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The end of the year is approaching, and with it the determination of guidelines for the development of the Belarusian state for 2023.
Earlier, we discussed the parameters of socio-economic development, formulated changes in the Tax Code and the draft budget, though not completely clear, but at least described their contours. At the same time, we still do not know what the Russian gas offer price will be, and a lot depends on this figure.
Despite the generally accepted trend towards a high proportion of gas consumed through the transition to energy and the use of fuels, natural gas remains a natural species in the Belarusian energy sector, used to generate absorption and use energy.
Unlike Europe, where the cost of gas was formed on the spot market of Belarus, in the decisions of intergovernmental committees with Russia, which is a successful supplier of “blue fuel” to our country. The cost of goods supplied to the enterprises of the Belarusian industry largely depends on gas prices.
However, despite this entire period, the price for the supply of Russian gas has not yet been agreed, although less than 40 days remain until the end of the year.
lingering
What is known about the moment used? May 2022 Minister of Energy Victor Karankevich stated that the formation of the price of natural gas should be completed by August 1, 2022 with the signing of the signed documents. Then it was reported that in parallel, work began on the formation of a union of the gas market of the Union of States.
However, they took a long time. The fact that they are still going on became known in early October, when Viktor Karankevich announced an “active resonance” in gas prices for Belarus. In addition, the program on the united gas market of the three allied projects in the energy sector turned out to be the most “protracted”, which also indicates that the discussion is not going quite smoothly. The nuclear energy project is almost completed, the agreement on the formation of a single electricity market has passed domestic procedures, but the gas project has not gone beyond bilateral negotiations.
All of this can be conveyed that the assessment of the third-party incident came from a consensus – either because Belarus wants higher gas prices as part of a market unification move, or because Russia is demanding more concessions than those which the Belarusian side is ready to accept.
Who benefits from it
Taking into account the fact that the group’s current contractual terms (128.5 US dollars per thousand cubic meters) both parties and both in their state have declared their interest in creating a market association, we do not translate that the price may change towards consideration . Diffusion is most often about seeking opportunities for her chosen ones or discussing concessions to the status quo list. That is, one of the parties shows the forcing of the allergy and tries successaboutmore concessions, which interrupts a calm dialogue that is not limited by time frames. From this point of view, Belarus is more interested in concessions, due to lower gas prices in 2023, it would make it easier for the country to solve the problem of increasing economic growth in the face of sanctions pressure.
The Russian direction in 2022 was extremely common for Belarusian diplomacy. As a result, it was possible to significantly increase the export of Belarusian goods to the Russian Federation, switch to payments for the supply of Belarusian energy products in Russian rubles, obtain a loan for the implementation of import substitution projects, sign an agreement on the unification of mandatory taxes, under which Russia agreed to accept interbudgetary transfers to use its expenses from her expenses. implementation of the tax maneuver in the oil refining industry. It is possible that Belarusian diplomats decided to strike while the iron is hot, and additional gas preferences were achieved.
Not so simple
However, the Russian side did not just link the issues of providing domestic gas prices for Belarus with the formation of a gas market unification.
It is important to understand that the creation of a single market will capture for us not only the possibility of acquiring gas in Russia through internal, but also serious changes, the representatives of the Belarusian side may not be ready.
Thus, the creation of a universal market with wide access to the consumer, as is currently happening in Russia, where not only the conditional “Gazprom” can sell gas to end users, but also other gas companies and trading structures.
For Belarus, where all gas supplies are available through Beltopgaz, this means that other players appear on the market, and the offer in the intermediary sales organization disappears. The nature of pricing will need to be changed accordingly, which currently uses an allergenic (virtually “manual”) approach, which involves setting a selling price for enterprises depending on the type of activity. For example, producers of mineral fertilizers or building materials buy gas at prices higher than other industrial consumers. It is important to understand that in the conditions of a single market, such electoral preferences are difficult to maintain, which means that for some specific effects from the transition to gas prices, the removal of preferences may be partially offset.
It became known that the Belarusian side will increase the tariffs for oil transportation in Russia by 39% from February 1, 2023, Oleg Borisenko, General Director of Gomelnefttrans Druzhba JSC, announced this. As the company explained, the annual review of tariffs for oil transportation in accordance with the procedure, adjustment of the mechanism for changing tariffs for services for the transportation (transit) of oil through trunk pipelines located on the territory of Belarus, approximately January 27, 2010. The Ministry of Economy and the Federal Tariff Service Russia. JSC “Gomeltransneft Druzhba” took into account the presented volumes of withdrawal of PJSC “Transneft” through the Belarusian oil pipelines, which are planned for the next year. It is reported that the basis for increased growth was a two-fold decrease in cargo turnover in 2023.
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It is possible that by the end of the year the parties will adjust their requests and try to reach a compromise. Still, in the conditions of sanctions pressure in Russia and Belarus, there are not so many alternatives to the development of the transition and the gradual rapprochement of states. Therefore, the harmonization of gas prices and the principles of building a unified market remain unchanged over time.
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