Demography: in 2070, Occitanie will have 6.7 million inhabitants concentrated in Toulouse and Montpellier
INSEE has established population projections for the region and for its departments. According to its conclusions, published this Thursday, November 24, Occitania, which has 5.9 million inhabitants today, would gain 824,000 inhabitants in 50 years, the largest increase in France. Bad news, the population should age a lot and concentrate on the two big cities. Decryption.
A bit like the planet which has just had 8 billion inhabitants, the population of Occitanie will see its population continue to increase in the next fifty years.
This should even be the largest increase in France with 824,000 more inhabitants by 2070! “It would be good news if it did not hide two major problems: one, the population will age terribly and two, it will accentuate regional imbalances with an extreme concentration around the two major cities, Toulouse and Montpellier”. Geographer Georges Roques dissected the INSEE study and noted that “the proportion of over 65s will be concentrated in a line south of Nantes to Lyon”. Indeed, population growth will essentially be accompanied by an increase in seniors.
835,000 inhabitants over the age of 65
This is the finding of the study which shows that in 2070 “one in three inhabitants will be over 65 in 50 years”. Christophe Préalaprat, one of the three authors of the study with Hafida Raoui and Marine Soleilhavoup, puts two figures side by side: “We will have 824,000 more inhabitants and 835,000 people over the age of 65. The 20-64 year olds should increase slightly, on the other hand, the share of the under 20s should decrease significantly”. We would go from a balance of seniors and young people in 2018 to 174 per 100 young people under 20 in 2070.
Occitanie remained the 5th oldest region behind Corsica, New Aquitaine, Brittany and Burgundy Franche-Comté. In 2070, the average age of Occitan will be 48.4 years, 5.7 years older than today.
Growth in Hérault and Haute-Garonne
An aging region therefore but on the rise, “despite more deaths than births”, notes the study. And the two departments which will absorb the most this new population are the two most populated departments: Haute-Garonne and its capital Toulouse and Hérault and the Métropole of Montpellier.
“These are two very attractive departments which allow the region to be attractive. Montpellier and Toulouse are great students and among those who come to study, some settle down and start families”explains Christophe Préalaprat.
A study to be taken in the conditional
The full INSEE study uses the conditional because “it is not a statistical modeling but a forecast based on the observation of recent demographic trends”, notes Christophe Préalaprat, project manager at Insee. Hopes that may not be realized with the emergence of imponderables such as a conflict, a health crisis or the displacement of populations due to climate change. So many hazards that allow INSEE to carry out six scenarios. The one presented is the central scenario.
Even if the Hérault and the Haute-Garonne will see their demographic growth accelerated, the two departments will contain the regional increase to the tune of 85%! 45.7% for Haute-Garonne and 38.8% for Hérault. “This leaves, in fact, quite a bit of room for the 11 other departments, notes the INSEE expert. But we must not lose sight of the fact that the other departments remain attractive”.
The dynamic shifts
Although Occitania continues its demographic growth, it should be noted that the dynamic will slow down significantly from 2050. The region will continue to gain 32,000 inhabitants on average until 2030 and slowly decrease to gain more than 2,500 per year between 2060 and 2070. “Over the past decade, Occitania could even be the only region in France with even weak growth when all the others have lost population”emphasizes Christophe Préalaprat.
“We will also have to see what place immigration will have in these figures”recalls Georges Roques who also notes that this growth will not benefit all departments: “We can clearly see that departments are going to lose population, this is the case of Aude, Gers and Lozère. However, it is boring because these are already very old departments”.
According to these projections, Hérault would be the 2nd department with the highest growth rate, tied with Gironde and behind Loire-Atlantique. And the Haute Garonne would become the 7th most populated department in France, ahead of the Hérault, 11th, or seven places better!
68.1 million inhabitants in France in 2070
According to INSEE, if the latest demographic trends revealed continued, the population of France would increase until 2044 to reach 69.3 million inhabitants. It is at this date that the population would stop growing. It would then decrease to around 68.1 million inhabitants in 2070, i.e. 1.1 million more than in 2018.