Siena, Monte dei Paschi one step away from the rescue. The green light for the capital increase arrives – Il Tempo
Last passage today in Siena for the rescue of Monte dei Paschi. In fact, the extraordinary assembly of the institute opens for the approval of the operation by the shareholders which has already received the green light from the European Central Bank on 5 September. If the ok of the assembly is not in question, given the control exercised by the Treasury, which holds 64.2% of the capital, the real problem is the realization of the increase. The public shareholder will guarantee its stake, around 1.6 billion euros, but the bank will have to find the missing 900 million on the market. For this purpose, the CEO Luigi Lovaglio has maintained contacts with institutional investors over the weeks, and is ready to leave in the coming days for a roadshow in the traditional foreign finance offices for adhesions. The intention is to convince “anchor investors”, that is stable investors ready to dare to trust the plan by placing a chip in the medium term to dare stability to the bank. The fundamental point to be resolved is that of the issue price of the new shares.
Securities are currently trading at € 0.36, and in the last six months the price has lost 61%. The total capitalization thus today amounts to approximately 365 million and therefore represents a fraction of the increase to be carried out. This is not a normal situation. Because in these conditions, and that is with such a low price, it is difficult even to offer with the securities at a high speculative discount on the price of the shares and rights. For this reason, starting with an ideal investor base and Lovaglio could be the operation in the shortest possible time, if possible within a couple of months in November, also to close the redundancy game without criticality. The situation of the stock, however, has been the subject of analysis by market observers: too many anomalies in trading in pulling down the odds above all. One thing that shouldn’t make industrial sense. The Sienese bank has enormous commercial potential, is strongly rooted in a rich territory, and could develop a much higher turnover if it had “more hay in the farmhouse”, that is, more funds. Those that Lovaglio is looking for.
In other words, a fall in stock prices would not make sense. In short, a speculation in some ways suspected and which could also lead to the skip of the capital increase. Funds and companies and sell securities on the market making money on arbitrage between values, so they do their job which is to make money. But it is clear that a much stronger attack on the stock, capable of deterring large investors, could also have triggered a political match as well as an economic and financial one. Once the recapitalization had faded, some other large Italian or even foreign institution interested in development in the boot would have made a move to take home the bite of Siena without spending too much, or as has already happened even nothing. Basically, the consolidation of the banking system has not ended. A third player is missing to contrast with the two big players: Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit. And the list of suitors ready to collect at the price of the pulp, which remains in the Monte, is long. Those who could therefore remained at the window waiting for some hitch that would nullify Lovaglio’s effort in trying to get out of the dry Rocca Salimbeni. A wait so far in vain. The current has gone straight and, for now, those who have thought of taking advantage of some need remain dry-mouthed.