Putin Alli Lukashenko keeps Belarus from Russia’s participation in the war in Ukraine
- The dictatorial President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has brought his country closer to Russia.
- These strained ties include rhetorical and logistical support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- But Lukashenka avoided direct involvement in the war, which would exacerbate problems at home.
August 24 President of authoritarian Belarus Alexander Lukashenko welcome message In Ukraine on the 31st Independence Day.
Lukashenka said that Belarus would continue to “preserve harmony” and develop “mutually respectful relations”, and also wished Ukrainians “success in restoring a peaceful sky, tolerance, courage, strength and a decent life.”
Strange news from a leader who not only made a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also did everything possible to help Russia in the war.
Under Lukashenka, Belarus has become a legal ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the world stage and his sole ally in Europe.
This alliance and the widespread support for Lukashenka, Russia’s military actions raise fears that Belarus could be drawn into the war, but Belarus’s relationship with Russia is more complicated than the relationship between the two dictators.
tight ties
Lukashenko and Putin in Minsk in September 1999.
Reuters
Belarus has long had close ties with Russia and did not become a truly independent country until the fall of the USSR in 1991.
Even after independence, Belarus remained close to Russia, joining the same trends and economic structure as Moscow. StateUnion And this Eurasian Economic Union. Belarus also joined Organization of the Collective Security TreatyMutual Security Alliance.
But Lukashenka, who has been in power since the presidency of Belarus was created in 1994 and who has long been called “Europe’s last dictator,” has not fully reconciled with Russia since the 2020 Belarusian elections, many of which were judged to be rigged. .
After the referendum, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in the largest protests in the history of the country. Lukashenka responded with far-sighted suppression.
At least 37,000 people were attacked, 270 non-governmental organizations were closed, and 13 media outlets were declared “extremist”. UN report Released in March.
The repression was widespread and prompted by Western arrests, resulting in Lukashenka fully supporting Putin to stay in power.
Since then Russian Loans want kept Belarus afloat And Lukashenka was very pro-Kremlin. Last year he officially recognized Russian sovereign control over Crimea and partial deployment of troops to ensure Russia’s response to aggressive coercion in Kazakhstan. Mission of the CSTO.
Warehouse in Ukraine
The crew of the Russian S-400 during training in the Brest region of Belarus, February 10.
Russian Defense Ministry News Service via AP
Lukashenka’s biggest contribution to Russia’s interests has been his support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Support accidentally made this war possible for Belarus.
In the weeks before the break, about 30,000 Russian soldiers were sent to Belarus in the open air of military schools. On February 24 these troops exploded To Ukraine with a direct shot towards Kyiv. Russian soldiers also attack from Belarus faceted In the city of Chernihiv.
Belarusian territory was used for the launch Russian ballistic missiles in Ukraine, Russian bombers used the greater protection of Belarusian airspace to launch long-range missiles at Ukrainian targets.
There are Belarusian hospitals near the border Accepted Russian soldiers Ukraine and its prospects Morgues saved Russians were killed there.
A military field hospital and medical complex in southern Belarus, March 14.
Maksar Technologies
Belarusian citizens are not expected to participate, but continue to operate within the nearly 700-mile border with Ukraine. Military training As well as Installation of wooden fake tanksmay be give meaning What can he do.
Four days after the second day Belarus Approved Constitutional reforms that abolished his neutrality and non-nuclear status in a referendum have been criticized as fraudulent.
On my way announce Russia to supply Belarus with Iskander-M ballistic missiles capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads, and help Belarus modify its aircraft for nuclear warheads – Lukashenka process recently announced was full.
“We must be ready for anything, even for the proposal of an emergency attack to protect our Motherland from Brest to Vladivostok,” Lukashenka said. said said Meeting with Putin to connect the western city of Belarus with the eastern city of Russia.
“Pretty wobbly wagon”
Lukashenka (second from left) inspects a joint Russian-Belarusian exercise near Minsk on February 17.
MAXIM GUCEK/BELTA/AFP via Getty Images
Despite continued rhetorical support, Lukashenka’s decision not to interfere in Ukraine’s affairs comes as a surprise and is unlikely to happen in the near future.
The Belarusian armed forces are inferior in quality to the Russian or Ukrainian ones, and these military forces may not be ready for combat at all.
According to a public opinion poll Most citizens of Belarus oppose the war in Ukraine. Like most Rough Sending 45,000 conscripts from the Belarusian army to Ukraine could create dissent or even dissent. already there reports Discontent and desertion of Belarusian troops.
“Belarus does not have the investment in military equipment that Russia has, which does not have the experience that Russia has to do with this in places like Syria and Georgia, and the Belarusian society is very divided, so there is no obvious desire. fight,” said a professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Chris Miller told Insider.
Heavy losses in Ukraine create additional problems for Lukashenka, who is necessary to control at home, and who cannot be useful for himself, believing that this could lead to the introduction of troops into an unpopular war.
An officer confronts an opposition activist at a rally against Lukashenka’s inauguration in Minsk on September 26, 2020.
TUT.BY/AFP via Getty Images
“If the losses were at the level of growing losses, Lukashenka would not have received the support of the Belarusian society,” said Miller, who is also director of the Eurasian Program at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.
Belarusian railway workers and hackers are already a mixture disturbed Belarusian rail transport will interrupt Russian supply routes to Ukraine. also Volunteer detachments Belarusians are fighting together with Ukrainians.
“There are relations between Belarus and Russia, and there are relations between Belarus and Russia, and they are different,” Miller added.
This gap may deepen over time. as barrier density Affected the meetings of Russia And at the cost of war, Moscow could undermine Lukashenko’s support.
“The problem that Lukashenka has, naturally, is that he tied his horse to a rather ugly wagon,” Miller said. “While Russia has everything it needs to keep him in power for the moment, the reality is that Russia does not have the funds to fund Lukashenka as much as it wants.”
Having turned Belarus into a state dependent on Russia, Putin really tied his fate to the events in Moscow, where he faced his own uncertainty.
“There are still some big questions about what Russian politics will look like in two years, so there are big questions about what Belarusian politics will look like in two years,” Miller told Insider.