Night train Oslo-Copenhagen from 2025 at the earliest
Several train operators have the expertise and interest in running the line, the directorate’s investigation shows. The prerequisite is that a traffic agreement is concluded, i.e. that the public provides subsidies, in the order of DKK 24-43 million per year. This would mean that the state covered DKK 280 to 500 of the cost of each journey.
A night train offer will replace some flights on the route. However, the profit for society from reduced emissions is no more than DKK 2-3 million, according to the directorate’s analysis.
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“The discrepancy between earnings from saved greenhouse gas emissions and the need for subsidies means that the measure cannot be considered an effective climate measure, and that a recommendation to go ahead with the measure must be based on other considerations in addition to those taken into account in the analysis,” the study concludes.
The investigation has been commissioned by the Department of Transport as a basis for a decision to go ahead with night trains between Oslo and Copenhagen or not. What the Directorate of Work has done is a follow-up and concretization of a first study like the one made last year.
Who wants to travel by night train?
A market study carried out by Kantar shows that the night train can take 3.6 percent of the total volume of Norwegians’ journeys between the two capitals. This corresponds to 118 passengers per departure. The potential for passengers from the Danish market has not been specified. The traffic figures will therefore look a little nicer if this is taken into account, but the assumption is that there will be fewer Danish passengers than Norwegian, says section leader Stein Batalden in the Railway Directorate.
“An offer with a night train between Oslo and Copenhagen appears particularly attractive among women, people under 40 and over 60 and those who are relatively close to Oslo. The offer appears to be significantly more attractive among highly educated and students,” concludes the Directorate of Railways.
The market research suggests that the night train is more attractive among people on longer holidays, and less attractive for business travellers.
According to the study, the optimal ticket price is DKK 600 to 900, with a supplement for sleeping compartments.
The Directorate analyzes estimates that the demand for night trains Oslo-Copenhagen is 86,000 to 119,000 journeys a year. The offer starts to become profitable on 162,000 annual journeys, with an average seat price of DKK 750.
Stockholm-Hamburg – new offer from SJ
On 1 September, SJ starts its new night train service between Stockholm and Hamburg via Copenhagen. For the time being, the data basis is limited, among other things, sales had to stop for a period because it was unclear what kind of sleeping cars the train should have, says Peter Krameus at SJ’s press department for Energy and Climate. But SJ has faith in good ticket sales both in Sweden and Germany.
“Several companies have already booked large groups on the train. A few days before Christmas, the train is already sold out,” writes Krameus in an e-mail.
SJ believes that leisure travelers will be in the majority on the night train, and adjusts marketing in line with this. Krameus indicates that the passengers will arrive in Hamburg at 06.30. This gives them great opportunities to travel on to cities such as Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt and Brussels.
“Paris is reached immediately after lunch. It is even possible to reach Marseille in the south of France before evening,” says Krameus.
The new night train is part-financed by the Swedish Transport Administration in the period 15 September–15. May. The other 121 days of the year, SJ operates the offer on commercial terms.
Lack of sleeping cars
Lack of equipment, especially sleeping cars, is an obstacle to new night train services throughout Europe. The Norwegian Railway Directorate’s investigation shows that, in the short term, there is no material available to establish an Oslo-Copenhagen offer.
One of the operators’ directorates has contacted, says that they will be able to start traffic 30 months after allocation with rolling stock from their own fleet. The other operators describe the need for the acquisition and conversion of rolling stock, either under their own auspices or by the state-owned Norwegian Railways acquiring and owning the rolling stock.
If it has to be bought into new carriages, it will take longer to get started with a night train offer. 2028-30 is a preliminary estimate for when new material will be received.
The Trains for Europe campaign works for more night trains on European rails. The main problem is just that the lack of the wagonsaccording to the initiators – whose aim is to show practical and feasible solutions.
Must be easier to buy a ticket
Nor is the day train service good between Oslo and Copenhagen today. Passengers must exchange in Gothenburg, the correspondence is problematic and it is not possible to buy a one-way ticket. Vy operates the Oslo-Gothenburg route on a commercial basis, while SJ and Øresundståg have offers onward to Copenhagen.
– This also means that you have a risk even if something happens en route with your Vy train to Gothenburg and you have to continue with SJ or Øresundståg. If that correspondence fails, no one takes responsibility for it. A through ticket with a guarantee for the correspondence would be a good step forward. So it doesn’t take that much to bring about a significant improvement for travelers, says Batalden of the Railway Directorate.
Last year, the EU Commission must come up with an action plan for rail transport, one of the aims of which is to prevent effective ticket sales and otherwise make rail travel more user-friendly.
The railway accounts for just 0.4 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU.