What is bad and what is good for Moldova is the departure of Moldovans from their country
The Republic of Moldova is going through a continuous demographic transition, which accentuates two complex processes, the reduction of the population and the aging. We present to you a conversation with Eliahu Ben Moshe, demography expert, who assisted the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Chisinau in applying the new methodologies for estimating the most relevant population and migration statistics..
Eliahu Ben Moshe: “A great deal of progress has been made by the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova in 2019, which previously they could not do in terms of estimating those migration values. From 2019, already the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova can make these estimates of the population which is now considered to be 2,600,000 and this may seem at first glance quite complicated the form of these estimates in terms of population number, but the thing that interests us the most is the population that lives in Moldova stably. The situation is very interesting, because Moldova has open borders, primarily with Romania, but not only. These migration flows are active, so their number is very high, at the same time, they migrate from the country and many of them return and the National Bureau of Statistics has managed, since 2014, and after the year to be able to make these estimates. of the population and at the moment we already have this figure estimated for the beginning of 2022, ie January 1, 2022. And these achievements were possible in Moldova, so that international organizations value this, these changes that were made by the National Bureau of Statistics . , because earlier, when this was not done, we had some data that we informally call imaginary. So, the figure was 3.5-3.7 million, but I didn’t know that the situation was a little different, but I couldn’t show it. “
Even though at the beginning of 2019, in the Republic of Moldova lived 2.68 million people with habitual residence, data collected from the 32 districts, three municipalities and two autonomous regions show a population of over 3,000,000 citizens. Israeli demographer Eliahu Ben Moshe of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, who has been dealing with demographic developments in Moldova for almost 20 years, explains why this difference exists.
Eliahu Ben Moshe: “The National Bureau of Statistics is currently updating these estimates and for the first time a specific approach will be mentioned, this definition of new population estimates at the district level, which will be done on July 11, now used or approach. different compared to what was done before, but, of course, progress takes time. At the beginning, you mentioned two other sources at the National Bureau of Statistics. I would like to explain where these differences come from. Let’s start with the Population Register or the fact that the Public Service Agency gives these figures based on what is registered in this official population register of the Republic of Moldova, these figures mention the legal population, so-called “legal” in terms of statistics . . I would now like to explain what the legal population means. Legal population means any person who was once registered in the Population Register, but it is still not taken into account whether these persons remained in place or left the country. That is, the legal population has the same rights as any other person, for example, they have the right to vote. These people are often gone, but still, having this right to vote, they can return when it is an election campaign, voting day is coming, they can return (and many of them do) and vote. That is why these departed people who do not live in Moldova, but are registered in the register, cannot be removed from this register and this number is very high, it is in fact more than 4,000,000 people, more than 4,000. 000 are registered in the Population Register. And that’s right, from the standpoint of the election. “
Free Europe: Does this include the Transnistrian region?
Eliahu Ben Moshe: “Yes, it includes those people who are on the Transnistrian side and who are registered in the register. This is correct from the point of view of elections, for example, because people have this right to use it, but they have to take time, these people are not services of the Government of Moldova, because they are not in place. And one more thing: most of these people included in the Population Register are registered on the basis of the person’s official residence permit. Often, people do not live where they have this residence visa. This number taken from the Population Register and which refers to each district, to each locality does not really reflect the place where people are, including the place of people who really continue to live in Moldova. ”
Demographic decline affects all sectors of the economy: Gross Domestic Product, budget, sustainability of pension funds, external funds allocated according to the number of inhabitants.
Eliahu Ben Moshe: And here we must first and foremost consider this number of people who constantly live, the one they will take care of us, we call it not “with the usual residence in the country”, but also from other aspects. If we take, for example, the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccines, we had to know these estimates as accurately as possible, on the other hand, the number of vaccines offered must also be such as to reach . abroad could not receive this vaccine, he can return to Moldova to make this vaccine. That is why the best estimates are needed, and if we are talking about the Public Service Agency, we are already talking about not so many estimates, but practically we are talking about the enumeration of the population, which lately has been much more accurate than before. So, the statistics that the National Bureau of Statistics makes at the level of … and you specified this, that the statistics at the general level and the estimates made by districts, by localities do not correspond to that figure of 2.6 million, the cause is that before 2019, when they started to make these estimates more accurate in what it is. found the usual resident population, Moldova did not have figures related to emigration. Emigration is quite complicated, because emigrants do not declare that they are leaving and such cases happen when someone thinks that they are leaving for half a year and stay there maybe for 20 years, because they do not know these things, this situation. . . ”
The demographic situation in the Republic of Moldova has been deteriorating since the early 1990s, with mass emigration and natural declines.
Eliahu Ben Moshe: “This situation, these differences are reflected in what we call the ‘ordinary resident population.’ I want to tell you that I have been working in Moldova on the statistical issues established since 2003, I also participated in the preparation of the 2004 census and even then, at that time, I already found very large.
We cannot say that everything is negative due to the fact that many people go abroad to earn their living. And we can see this by judging by what we see in the localities – a lot of new and good houses built specifically on money coming from abroad. We have to say that emigration at first glance looked like something totally negative, but it is not, there are some positive things.
differences. As for migration registration or migration flows, this is a long history, but the cause of these data differences is to be mentioned by this new definition with the year 2019. We move on to cleaning, so to speak, or correcting. data at the district level and so, step by step, gradually, we move on to correcting the figures from top to bottom. This, of course, takes time and effort. But at the same time, we cannot say that everything is negative due to the fact that many people go abroad to earn their living. And we can see this by judging by what we see in the localities – a lot of new and good houses built specifically on money coming from abroad. We have to say that emigration at first glance looked like something totally negative, but it is not so, there are also some positive things, and it is not just that someone working abroad brings or sends some money in the country, but it is also actually. by the people who work there and who gain good expertise, experience and skills, and the situation in Moldova is quite special. In fact, it is believed, perhaps, that people leave and stay and continue their lives there, but this is not the case, in Moldova many of them make a kind of shuttle – go-come, go-come. Regarding the situation of Moldova from this point of view and if we look at the migration situation of the age group between 35 and 50 years, in Moldova many migrants make a kind of commute for years, the person works time there and can. then he returns, that is, he does not lose touch with his country of origin, at the same time gaining good work and work experience. ”
The Republic of Moldova remains the state with the most unfortunate pensioners, at least in the European space, there are concerns that it could fuel the pension system. Demography expert Eliahu Ben Moshe says there is a need to readjust the pension systems, and not just in Moldova, in the world in general.
Eliahu Ben Moshe: “The model according to the people who work to pay the pensions of those who are retired is no longer the best or the most appropriate. Of course, the issue of the pension system is a challenge. Here we are talking about the adjustment that needs to be made, but at the same time I want to say that Moldova, from this point of view, is in a very good company, as well as Germany, France. and other countries. We are talking about adaptation, we are talking about adjustment, we are talking about certain measures that must be taken in another way, so that the situation can be resolved. “
According to United Nations estimates, the population of Moldova could drop by only 1.7 million people by 2040, compared to about 2 and a half million at present. The expert suggests that public policies are needed to cope with the deep demographic.
Eliahu Ben Moshe: “If we talk globally – and this also refers to the Republic of Moldova – the country’s policies must be adapted so that the economic processes are those that use as much as possible to the efficient use of that money that comes from abroad in migration. population … and at the same time to encourage people to leave to return. “But I don’t think it’s a big deal that a lot of people go abroad to earn a living.”