ECB probably not yet fiddled with interest in Amsterdam
Photo: ANP
According to experts, the fact that the interest rate meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is a one-off in Amsterdam does not suddenly give the Netherlands more influence on interest policy. But it seems that policymakers at the central bank are starting to move forward until the first rate hikes kick in. That is something that President Klaas Knot of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) has been pushing for some time. The first rental step is not expected to take place yet, but next month.
Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at RaboResearch, says to Knot at the meeting in the Sofitel Legend hotel: “There may be other questions here”, he suggests. In the Netherlands, prices have risen faster than the eurozone as a whole, and the labor market is tighter than average. By being able to feel an extra pressure at the ECB, it can occur.
DNB chief economist Olaf Sleijpen, who attends the interest rate meeting to support Knot, has recently been “worried” about the stress, which has increased since the end of the war in Ukraine. It is therefore obvious that an interest rate increase is not long in coming. A better interest rate makes it more attractive to save money and not spend it immediately. That can help to get up.
The only question is exactly when interest rates will rise and by how much, by a quarter of a half percentage point. ECB President Christine Lagarde already announced that the way seems clear for a first rate hike in July. But ING economist Carsten Brzeski argues that the only interesting question is why the ECB won’t actually start raising interest rates. It is relevant that such a faster rate step is unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out.
His colleague De Groot of RaboResearch thinks that already raising interest rates will only cause panic in the financial markets. He mainly counts on additional explanations from the ECB. Due to the prospect of the central bank raising its rates, capital market interest rates have been rising in any case lately. Consumers also notice this in the mortgage interest rate. In addition, the ECB has already announced that the bond buying process will come to an end and that will also slow the economy and curb what is being curbed.