Finland and Sweden aim to join NATO in the midst of Russia’s Ukraine invasion
A group of NATO allies has offered Finland and Sweden interim security guarantees after the two Nordic countries announced that they intend to join the alliance to protect against possible Russian aggression. Finland and Sweden, which for decades have stuck to a policy of military freedom of alliance, quickly reversed their policy after Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February sent shock waves across Europe.
After months of speculation, both countries formally announced their intention to join NATO this week, provoking criticism and vague warnings about a “military-technical response” from Moscow, NATO’s former rival during the Cold War.
Since then, Western officials have sounded the alarm bells about the possibility, though unlikely, of Russian reprisals against Finland and Sweden in the intervening period between the announcement of their offer to join NATO and their formal acceptance as new NATO members, and thus falling under the Alliance’s umbrella for mutual defense. Norway, Denmark and Iceland – all NATO members – issued a joint statement in support of Sweden’s and Finland’s decisions, promising to support the two countries’ rapid accession to the alliance and help them against possible retaliation.
A group of NATO allies has offered Finland and Sweden interim security guarantees after the two Nordic countries announced that they intend to join the alliance to protect against possible Russian aggression. Finland and Sweden, which for decades have stuck to a policy of military freedom of alliance, quickly reversed their policy after Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February sent shock waves across Europe.
After months of speculation, both countries formally announced their intention to join NATO this week, provoking criticism and vague warnings about a “military-technical response” from Moscow, NATO’s former rival during the Cold War.
Since then, Western officials have sounded the alarm bells about the possibility, though unlikely, of Russian reprisals against Finland and Sweden in the intervening period between the announcement of their offer to join NATO and their formal acceptance as new NATO members, and thus falling under the Alliance’s umbrella for mutual defense. Norway, Denmark and Iceland – all NATO members – issued a joint statement in support of Sweden’s and Finland’s decisions, promising to support the two countries’ rapid accession to the alliance and help them against possible retaliation.
“The security of Finland and Sweden is a matter of common concern for all of us,” they said in it joint statement. “Should Finland or Sweden fall victim to aggression on its territory before gaining NATO membership, we will assist Finland and Sweden by all necessary means.”
Last week, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson also wrote similarly security agreement with both countries and swore to back them up in the event of an attack. With these pacts, “in the event of a disaster, or in the event of an attack on any of us, then we will help each other, including with military assistance,” Johnson sa. The exact type of assistance, he added, would “depending on the request of the other party.”
It told several American and European officials Foreign policy that the prospects for Russia to make any open military moves against either Finland or Sweden are remote, but they could see the Kremlin carry out retaliation in the form of hybrid tactics, such as economic retaliation, cyber attacks or disinformation campaigns. Some Finnish officials believe that Russia is too politically and militarily overworked in Ukraine to focus on interrupting Finland’s path to NATO membership.
“As Russia has been loudly opposed to Finland’s NATO membership for several years now, the moderate reactions may be surprising,” said Henri Vanhanen, foreign policy adviser to Finland’s center-right National Coalition Party, which supports NATO membership. “On the other hand, Russia is undeniably strained in Ukraine now, which limits its chances of disrupting Finland’s process.”
Finnish and Swedish leaders have nevertheless issued warnings to their people about possible measures by Russia to try to disrupt the process of joining NATO.
“Russia has said it will take countermeasures if we join NATO”, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson sa. “We can not rule out that Sweden will be exposed to, for example, disinformation and attempts to intimidate and divide us.”
Adding a new member to NATO requires the approval of all 30 current NATO members – a process that can take months as parliaments across the Alliance must approve the NATO expansion plan. At least one member state, Turkey, has expressed that they have cold feet about the new members.
In the United States, an addition by Finland and Sweden would require the Senate to adopt a so-called resolution on ratification. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who visited Finland on Monday, said the United States could ratify Finland’s NATO application before August. But such a move depends on the Biden administration providing reports to the Senate on NATO expansion to get the process started. Several lawmakers who have opposed NATO expansion in the past, including Sen. Rand Paul and Mike Lee, may delay the Senate process, but adding both new members ultimately has widespread bipartisan support.
Almost all 30 NATO members have signaled strong support for adding Finland and Sweden to the alliance. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threw a wrench into what could otherwise have been an easy slide for NATO expansion when he doubted whether Turkey would support Finland’s and Sweden’s membership applications. Erdogan claimed that Helsinki and Stockholm were not doing enough to crack down on Kurdish groups that Ankara has considered terrorist organizations. He also referred to Sweden’s and Finland’s decision in 2019 to impose an arms embargo on Turkey due to its invasion of Syria. Several European officials who spoke to Foreign policy on condition of anonymity, speculated that this could be a blunt bargaining chip from Erdogan, and they expected Turkey to ultimately support Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO after diplomatic negotiations.
“The issue with Finland and Sweden should be seen through the bilateral lens, rather than through the NATO framework,” said Galip Dalay, an associate of Chatham House who specializes in Turkish politics. “I do not expect Turkey to veto at this stage.”
With the Russian military stuck in Ukraine and nowhere going fast, any attempt by Moscow to rattle Finland or Sweden is more likely to take the form of non-military hybrid threats.
“What I would really focus on is cyberattacks on infrastructure, attempted disruption and just general harassment,” said Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and columnist at Foreign policy. For Sweden, the accession period comes at a politically sensitive time ahead of the parliamentary elections in September, “makes it vulnerable both in terms of information and technology” for Russian interference, said Braw.
So far, however, the reaction from the Kremlin has been relatively subdued, despite Moscow for several years warning Stockholm and Helsinki to join NATO and characterize NATO’s expansion as an existential threat to Russia.
This expansion poses “no immediate threat to Russia,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday, warning that it could “trigger a response” without giving further details on how Moscow could react. Other Russian officials have been less discreet, and the Vice-Chairman of the Russian Parliament’s Defense Committee warned that Moscow could strike Britain and Finland with its RS-28 Sarmat nuclear-capable hypersonic missile.
Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to the alliance is expected to proceed quickly. Both countries have worked closely with NATO for years, and their equipment and training are already almost in line with NATO standards.
“These are two quality militaries, these are two great nations with strong democratic values, and they would in many ways be magnificent additions to our alliance,” said Philip Breedlove, a retired four-star general from the U.S. Air Force who served as the highest ally. commander of NATO forces.
While most observers expect both countries to be net contributors to the alliance, they are also asking new questions about NATO’s defense position. Both Sweden and Finland are Arctic nations, a region where Russia has invested heavily militarily, while Finland’s accession would double the amount of shared border between NATO and Russia. “It is a rather serious consequence of at least Finland joining. So what it means militarily will be something to look into, says Rachel Rizzo, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe program.
Once Helsinki and Stockholm have submitted their applications, the decision goes to the North Atlantic Council, the Alliance’s main decision-making body, for review. It is then up to the parliaments of the individual Member States to ratify the accession of new members.
“It can take up to a year, which is why mutual defense pacts between now and then will be really important,” Rizzo said.