Russia, India | Ex-ambassador does not think India will turn its back on Putin
India has abstained from voting when the UN has condemned Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. The country also buys Russian oil on cheap sale. The country will continue to do so, believes diplomat Nils Ragnar Kamsvåg.
From 2015 to 2019, he was Norway’s ambassador to India. Kamsvåg has also been ambassador to Serbia and Ministerial Councilor in Beijing. He says the most important thing for India is to challenge China in Asia.
Then the country lives well with the ties to Russia. At the same time, the Indian market is so attractive to the West that India gets away with it, Kamsvåg believes.
Modes on a European tour
He emphasizes that we must see the situation from India’s point of view, not from Europe and the West.
– When you follow the debate about the very broad support for Ukraine that we experience in the West, we do not see it to the same degree in Africa and Asia, Kamsvåg says to NTB.
– The Ukraine conflict illustrates that the world can look a little different depending on where you are in the world, he says.
Latest news about the Ukraine war here
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently been on a European tour. He visited Germany, met Nordic prime ministers in Copenhagen and then went on to France.
Modi became the first head of state to meet with President Emmanuel Macron after Macron secured re-election. He was greeted with a warm hug.
USA and China
From European leaders, Modi heard Europe’s views on the Ukraine war and Russia. In the joint statement after the meetings, India refrained from participating in the strong criticism of Russia.
Kamsvåg does not think India will turn around and join the isolation of Russia.
– It is almost a unanimous agreement in domestic politics in India that India has taken the position that serves the country best. I saw one of the foremost foreign policy experts say that India is in a geopolitical “sweet spot”, says the ex-ambassador.
Kamsvåg believes that the potential in the Indian market means that the country has good cards in hand. At the same time, there is a desire in India to align itself with the United States, which is considered the only economy that can stem China’s military and economic strength.
– Everything one does in foreign policy is an attempt to strengthen India’s position vis-à-vis China, says Kamsvåg.
Russia loyal to India
He says it has long been a concern in India that the West has acted in a way that has pushed Russia more on China’s side.
At the same time, India has had a long-term and very good cooperation with the Soviet Union and Russia, ever since independence. Russia has been and is India’s most important arms supplier and looks at as a very loyal supporter of India as well, says Kamsvåg.
He points out that India has bought weapons from Russia on a large scale. Although the country also wants to cooperate with the West, Russia will also be a defense partner in the future.
– India’s overall security policy objective is an ever closer cooperation with the United States, but it is not a security policy alternative to break with Russia, the country’s main arms supplier. This is a bit of a basis for the situation you are in now, says Kamsvåg.
– Besides, you also have to look at it that way, when India chooses not to stand on, you have a pretty solid tradition of not doing it. There is a lot of strength in the line of non-interference, says the ex-ambassador.
– Understanding of India’s position
He interprets the signals both from Modi’s trip to Europe and from the so-called two-plus-two meetings between India and the United States, in which both defense and foreign ministers participate, as meaning that there is an understanding in the West of India’s position.
– All the elements that are put together are in themselves an indication that from the western side, even if you really want India to a clearer position, you do not want to push India further away from the West, says Kamsvåg.
He says that Europe appears more interesting to India even a few years ago. That development has been strengthened by the strong community the EU and Europe have shown in the face of the war in Europe, he says.
– EU cooperation and Europe have been strengthened. The trip to Modi is proof of that, and it is a nice gesture to continue the arrangement with meetings with Nordic leaders, says Kamsvåg.
Doubts on sanctions
He says it is also a concern in India that the United States is becoming more preoccupied with Europe than with Asia and the Pacific.
– In India’s opinion, this is where the most important political strength measurements will develop in this century, says Kamsvåg.
The Indian market is already large, but analysts predict that it will develop strongly. Optimistic estimates are that the country can account for up to 30 percent of global growth in the long run.
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It helps to make it difficult for the West to see, say, sanctions against India as a reaction to the country continuing to deal with, for example, Russian oil.
– In the non-situation that is now, one has sat down to be able to happen. The Indians have even used rupees against rubles in the oil trade, so in advance they do not envisage that type of reaction, says Kamsvåg.
Increased oil imports from Russia
Indian imports of Russian oil rose sharply as the Russians dumped the price following reactions to the war in Ukraine.
– The Indian Minister of Finance said very clearly that why in the world should we pay for the war, why could not we take advantage of this and contribute to the development of India?
Kamsvåg says that it is realpolitik that governs Indian foreign policy, but that it is not an easy position to be in for India.
– The challenges are to balance the policy so that it does not lead to a worse relationship with the West, while not breaking with Russia. Among other things, Modi’s European tour, several senior American and other Western visits to New Delhi in the past show that there is great and increased interest in India in the West, he says.
If we want to reduce trade with China, if relations between the West and China continue to deteriorate, India is the big potential growth machine.
Little brand to Norway
India is so far a little marked for Norway. Men with growth and increased demand for e.g. raw materials that we produce, the market can become more important for Norway as well.
Kamsvåg says European countries are very busy putting in place free trade agreements with India. This is something many in India oppose.
– We will see if Modi, who in the beginning is more reform-friendly on the economic side and many in his party, if he eventually gets out of the somewhat protectionist phase you are in now, says Kamsvåg.
During the meeting with Modi last week, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Labor Party) said that India’s attitude to Russia affects the country’s reputation.
– India is a big country that makes its decisions, I have respect for that. But I get him to say from conversations in Europe, how dramatic this is, with a war of aggression that violates a country’s territorial sovereignty, leads to massive destruction, a great flight and suffering, Støre told NTB.
In addition to Ukraine, they talked about a number of other themes, including climate and cooperation on solar energy and the marine economy.
(© NTB)