Ex-ambassador does not think India will turn its back on Putin
India has good cards in hand and will not bow to pressure from the West and isolated Russia, says my former ambassador to New Delhi.
India has abstained from voting when the UN condemned Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. The country also buys Russian oil at the ticket office. The country will keep up, diplomat Nils Ragnar Kamsvåg thinks.
From 2015 to 2019, he was Norway’s ambassador to India. Kamsvåg also has our ambassadors to Serbia and the Council of Ministers in Beijing. He says the most important thing for India is to challenge China in Asia.
Then the country lives well by keeping up the band to Russia. At the same time, the Indian market is so attractive to the West that India gets away with it, says Kamsvåg.
Modes on a European tour
He emphasizes that we must see the situation from the Indian standpoint, not from Europe and the West.
– When you follow the debate about the very broad support for Ukraine that we experience in the West, we do not see it to the same degree in Africa and Asia, says Kamsvåg to NTB.
– The Ukraine conflict illustrates that the world can look a little different depending on where you are in the world, he says.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently been on a European tour. He visited Germany, met Nordic statesmen in Copenhagen and went on to France.
Modi was the first head of state to meet with President Emmanuel Macron after Macron secured his seat. He was greeted with a warm hug.
USA and China
From the European leaders, Modi got the right view of Europe’s war on the Ukraine war and Russia. In the joint statements after the meeting, India refrained from participating in the strong criticism of Russia.
Kamsvåg does not think India will turn around and join the isolation of Russia.
– It is almost unanimous agreement in domestic politics in India that India has taken the position that serves the country best. I saw one of the leading foreign policy experts say that India is in a geopolitical sweet spot, says the ex-ambassador.
Kamsvåg says that the potential in the Indian market means that the country has good cards in hand. At the same time, there is a strong desire in India to tie itself closer to the United States, which is counted as the only economy that can stem the military and economic strength of China.
– Everything one does in foreign policy is an attempt to strengthen the Indian position vis-à-vis China, says Kamsvåg.
Russia loyal to India
He says it has long been a concern in India that the West has behaved in a way that has pushed Russia more on the Chinese side.
At the same time, India has had a long-term and very good cooperation with the Soviet Union and Russia, ever since independence. Russia has ours and is the most important arms supplier India has and has been considered a very loyal supporter of India as well, says Kamsvåg.
He points out that India has bought weapons from Russia on a large scale. Although the country also here wants more cooperation with the West, Russia will be a defense partner in the future.
– The overall security policy objective for India is an ever closer cooperation with the United States, but it is not an security policy alternative to breaking with Russia, the country’s most important arms supplier. It is a bit of a basis for the situation one is in now, says Kamsvåg.
– Moreover, one must also look at it in such a way that when India does not take a stand, there is a fairly solid tradition of not doing so. One is very strong on the line of non-interference, says the ex-ambassador.
– Understanding of the Indian position
He interprets the signals both from Modi’s trip to Europe and from the so-called two-plus-two meetings between India and the United States, in which both defense and foreign ministers participated, as meaning that there is an understanding in the West of the Indian position.
“All the elements put together are in themselves an indication that from the western side, even though one very much wants India to take a clearer position, one does not want to push India further away from the West,” says Kamsvåg.
He says that Europe seems more interesting to India no one even a few years ago. That development has been strengthened by the strong community the EU and Europe have shown in the face of the war in Europe, he says.
– EU cooperation and Europe have been strengthened. The trip to Modi is proof of that, and it is a nice gesture that the arrangement with a meeting with Nordic leaders was maintained, says Kamsvåg.
Doubts on sanctions
He says it is also a concern in India that the United States will not be more preoccupied with Europe than with Asia and the Pacific.
– According to the Indian view, this is where most of the significant political strength measurements will develop in this century, Kamsvåg sees.
The Indian market is already large, but analysts predict that he will develop strongly. Optimistic estimates are that the country can account for up to 30 percent of global growth in the long run.
This helps to make it difficult for the West to envisage sanctions against India as a reaction to the country’s continued to deal with, for example, Russian oil.
In the current situation, nothing has been imagined that could happen. The Indars have even used rupees against rubles in the oil trade, so for example they do not envisage that type of reaction, says Kamsvåg.
Increase oil imports from Russia
Indian imports of Russian oil extra strong when Russians dump prices after reactions to the war in Ukraine.
– The Indian Minister of Finance said very clearly that why in the world should we pay for the war, why should we not be able to take advantage of this and contribute to the development of India?
Kamsvåg says that it is realpolitik that governs Indian foreign policy, but that it is not an easy position to be in for India.
– The challenges are to balance politics so that he does not lead to a worse relationship with the West, while not breaking with Russia. Between Anna Modi’s European trip, several high-ranking American and other Western doctor visits to New Delhi in the past, it shows that there is a great deal of increased interest in India in the West, he says.
– If one wants to reduce trade with China, if relations between the West and China continued to deteriorate, India is the major potential growth machine.
Small market for Norway
India, for example, is a small market for Norway. But with growth and extra demand for, say, raw materials that we produce, the market can become even more important for Norway as well.
Kamsvåg’s victory European countries are very keen on establishing free trade agreements with India. This is something many in India are struggling with.
– We will see if Modi, who in the beginning is more pro-reform on the economic side and many in his party, after a quarter of an hour gets out of the somewhat protectionist phase one is in now, says Kamsvåg.
During the meeting with Modi last week, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Labor Party) said that the Indian attitude towards Russia affects the reputation of the country.
– India is a big country that makes its own decisions, I have respect for that. But I hope he gets from conversations in Europe how dramatic this is, with a war of aggression that violates another country’s territorial sovereignty, leads to massive destruction, a great flight and human suffering, Støre told NTB.
In addition to Ukraine, the two talked about a number of other topics, between other climates and cooperation on solar energy and the marine economy.
(© NPK)
The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been a major political player, as most weeks play, and met a number of European leaders. Here from the meeting with Jonas Gahr Støre (Labor Party) in Copenhagen last week.
Photo: Philip Davali / Ritzau Scanpix / NTB
French President Emmanuel Macron gives Narendra Modi a hug. The Indian prime minister was the first foreign leader to be welcomed to the presidential palace after Macron was elected. Photo: François Mori / AP / NTB
In Copenhagen, Narendra Modi also met the Danish royal family and the Prime Minister. From left: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Queen Margrethe, Modi, Crown Prince Frederik and Crown Princess Mary. Photo: Martin Sylvest / Ritzau Scanpix / AP / NTB
There was a good atmosphere between Narendra Modi and the German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz in Berlin. Photo: Michael Sohn / AP / NTB
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited India and colleagues in Narendra Modi in late April. Photo: Ben Stansall / Pool Photo via AP / NTB