A marine blue tide? Diving into the presidential election of the Nord-Pas-de-Calais mining area
Despite his trips of the between-two towers in Lens, Liévin and Carvin, Emmanuel Macron did not know how to convince the inhabitants and the inhabitants of the mining basin of Nord-Pas-de-Calais.
During the second round of the presidential elections, voters in the region largely voted for the candidate of national rally. Marine Le Pen thus comes first in almost all the cities of this popular territory undergoing social, economic and political change.
But are these results the sign of a complete reversal of this old left stronghold for the far right? A detailed electoral analysis allows us to qualify this idea.
A navy blue dynamic that is accentuated during this second round
One could expect it, Marine Le Pen who had already made very good scores in 2017confirmed and finished first in the Nord Pas-de-Calais mining area with a average of 60% during this second round even increasing by 5% compared to 2017.
It achieves even higher scores in the two frontist municipalities of this territory which are Hénin-Beaumont (67%) and, more recently acquired, Bruay-la-Buissière (69%). But we can also observe very good scores in left-wing towns, up to 77% in Marles-les-Mines or even 57% in Lens, a socialist stronghold. These results are even often up compared to 2017. It thus progresses by 130,000 votes in Nord-Pas-de-Calais. In Lens, for example, she had obtained 7,316 votes in the second round of 2017 against 7,631 this year. Same story for Hénin-Beaumont where she won 875 votes compared to 2017.
These various breakthroughs are made to the detriment of the outgoing president who is partly retreating in this territory compared to the second round of 2017.
In the Nord-Pas-de-Calais it lost 65,000 votes and this fall is even greater in the towns at the heart of the mining area. In Lens he lost 796 votes and instantaneous 42% of the vote against 46% in 2017. Even in Valencienne, one of the few right-wing town halls in the Mining basin and one of the few placed Emmanuel Macron in the lead, he lost 708 votes passing from 63% in 2017 to 58% today.
But this analysis cannot be complete without paying particular attention to abstention, which, like the vote for Marine Le Pen, is always higher in the Mining area than in the rest of France. Even if it is less spectacular than one might expect, it is on average at 28% in the mining area (+3% compared to the national average) and reaches peaks in certain cities such as Lens with 37% (+2 .5% compared to 2017).
Thus, related to this abstention, it is “only” one voter in three who voted for Marine Le Pen during this second round in the mining basin. Moreover, these results are also to be put into perspective of the first round of these presidential elections which shows other nuances and political forces.
A first round bringing out three political poles
If Emmanuel Macron loses votes during the second round, the results of the first show another reality. In Pas-de-Calais he thus recovers second place, occupied by Jean Luc Mélenchon in 2017, and wins 40,000 votes, going from 18% in 2017 to 24% this year. Even clearer progress in the North where it gains 6% between 2017 and 2022, thus ending at 26%. This trend is also observed in the Mining basin, it thus gains 4 points in Lens, 2 in Hénin-Beaumont and up to 6 in Béthune.
These results can be understood when we consider the fall of the traditional parties, the Republicans and the Socialist Party. If, unlike the Republicans, the Socialist Party has been very strong in this territory, the two parties observe a continuous fall in their scores, Anne Hidalgo and Valérie Pécresse almost never make the 2% in the mining basin. Due to his political positioning, between the two candidates, it is probably the outgoing president who provided the most of this fall.
The ecologist Yanick Jadot also underperforms very strongly in the mining basin, only very rarely exceeding 2.5% whereas he As for the communist Fabien Roussel, elected deputy in this mining basin, he achieves better scores in this territory than in the rest of France regularly exceeding 4% with a peak of more than 12% in the communist stronghold of Avion.
On the left, it is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who as at the national level, finds himself largely in the lead. However, he did not convince in the mining area as much as he was able to do in Lille, for example, where he won 40.5% of the vote. In this territory still strongly marked by the left the rebellious suffers from the division with the PCF and only rarely wins more than 20% of the vote (22% in Lens and Carvin).
It is Marine Le Pen who finished in the lead from this first lap in the mining basin. It almost always exceeds 40% with very high peaks in these strongholds, 51% in Hénin-Beaumont and 52% in Bruay-la-Buissière. But it also achieves very good scores in smaller towns such as Auchel with 50% of the vote or Noeux-Les-Mines with 48%. In this territory of the mining basin, it was able to take advantage of the low score of its competitor on the far right, Éric Zemmour, who achieves lower scores there than in the rest of France. It rarely exceeds 5% and displays its best scores in the very few cities placed by Emmanuel Macron at the head of this first round such as Drouvin-le-Marais with 8.5% or Vaudricourt with 8%.
A trend that could be reversed?
The results of these presidential elections in the mining area come as no great surprise, they are part of deep, long-term dynamics that affect the whole territory: the increasingly strong breakthroughs of the National Rally, the loss of momentum of the Socialist Party and a slighter than expected increase in abstention.
The elements explaining these trends are multiple and play out on several scales, we will retain the most salient ones here.
First of all, we have to look at the sociology of the mining basin, which corresponds fairly well to part of the Le Pen electorate. We observe an overrepresentation of workers, employees, people with a low level of diploma and salary and we know that Marine Le Pen expects good scores in these segments of the population.
These results are thus explained more by sociological proximity, between the profiles of the inhabitants and inhabitants of the mining basin and part of the RN electorate, than by a supposedly stronger ideological proximity in the mining basin than elsewhere. This popular electorate also makes it possible to understand the low scores of Éric Zemmour who succeeds better in territories wealthier and historically right-wing.
The same goes for the environmentalist candidate whose electoral base is concentrated much more in the metropolises than in popular territories such as the mining basin. It is more surprising for the candidate of rebellious France who seems to have more convinced in the popular territories close to the metropolises (52.5% in Roubaix) than in the mining basin. Finally, this popular sociology makes it possible to understand abstention, which we know affects more strongly the most precarious people.
Another important element to take into account in order to understand these partitions, and qualify them, relates to the national character of the campaign. At the local level, the mining basin remains led by the left, with the RN sometimes having difficulty presenting candidates from the territory. However, presidential elections are similar to another context in which national issues take precedence over local roots. Thus, several voters that I met during my thesis work explained to me that they voted on the left for the municipal elections in Lens, the socialist candidate was elected in the first round, but for Marine Le Pen in these presidential elections.
In a context of disunity of the lefts, the National Rally knew how to embody a political offer allowing to channel the various angers of the inhabitants and inhabitants of the mining basin denouncing in turn the “elites” and the “assistantship”. But the stakes may turn out to be very different in the upcoming legislative elections.
Although several constituencies in this territory were recovered in 2017, this was done in a context of division of the left, often with a candidate or a separate candidate for insubordinate France, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party. The union of lefts that seems to be taking shape for the upcoming elections could reverse the trend by presenting a candidate or a single candidate who could benefit from the still strong influence of the left at the local level.
Pierre Wadlow is currently writing a thesis on the politicization of the working classes in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais mining basin at CERAPS, under the supervision of Carole Bachelot.