Armand Goșu, Expert in the Former Soviet Space: “Russia Wants to Destabilize Moldova and Cut the Line Between Romania and the Odessa Region”
- Armand Goșu is an associate professor at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Bucharest, where he teaches the political history of Russia and the USSR. He holds a doctorate in Russian history with a dissertation from Moscow University (1998) and has published several books, including “Russia, a Complicated Equation.”
“The lack of solid information about what is happening in Transnistria should not do more in the area of speculation for the time being”, begins cautiously Armand Goșu. “But it is clear to me that there are challenges, probably made by the FSB, which wants to force Transnistria to be more aggressive with Chisinau and destabilize Moldova.”
On Monday, April 25, Transnistrian separatist authorities claimed that the Tiraspol Security Service had been attacked with grenades. On Tuesday, April 26, two communication antennas were grounded following explosions that took place in Maiak locality, Grigoriopol district. Tiraspol has introduced a red code of terrorist threat, blocked all student exams for this year and canceled the May 9 military parade.
“We need to talk about antennas separately”
“I think the first attack is clearly a challenge made by the FSB. On the antennas, it needs to be discussed separately. ” The historian tells us a comment made by the Bulgarian journalist Christo Grozev, who leads the specialized team on Russia within the media platform of investigations Bellingcat.
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Grozev wrote on Twitter that the two antennas were requisitioned by Russia after the start of the war to broadcast Kremlin propaganda in Ukraine. “So the attack came either from the Ukrainians or from God,” the Bulgarian investigative journalist concludes.
“It’s hard to contradict Grozev,” says Goșu.
“Russians want to cut off communication between Romania and Ukraine”
However, the historian believes that the Russians have a direct interest in destabilizing the Republic of Moldova. Moreover, he says that Romania is also targeted by the actions of the Kremlin.
“My opinion is that the Russians want to cut the line of communication between Romania and Ukraine in preparation for the siege of Odessa. Which we don’t know if it will happen. To get to Odessa to besiege, you must defeat the Donbas. And so far no one was able to send in the perfect solution, which is not strange.
But let’s go on this scenario: Let’s say that the Russians will occupy Nikolaev, which they have not yet occupied, and will advance on Odessa. Odessa is a very big city. It’s very difficult to take, it could turn into a Mariupol 2.0, maybe even harder for the Russians. Then the communication between the Odessa Region and Romania is vital for the Russian army. In order for ammunition and fighting equipment to come from the West, to transit Romania and reach the Odessa Region, on the Palanca, for example “, explains the specialist in the ex-Soviet space.
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I do not rule out this scenario either, with Russian tanks in Chisinau. On the other hand, I think things could be easier for the Russians by destabilizing the Republic of Moldova.
Armand Goșu:
“I don’t think they will be attacked,” Goșu continued. “I do not think the Transnistrian army is so strong. Of course, the Moldovan army is not strong either. But I don’t think he will get here to destabilize Moldova. Destabilization aimed at removing the current power of Chisinau and installing a pro-Russian coalition.
Herson hypothesis
Another hypothesis that Armand Goșu says we should take into account the challenges in Tiraspol is the attempt of the Russians to divert or part of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive from the Kherson region to the Transnistrian region.
“It simply came to our notice then. I heard it from a Russian journalist, who, of course, is no longer in Russia, and who said that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region puts a lot of pressure on the Russian army, which needs a few more days to make that referendum parody. . for union with Russia. It is possible to try to attract such a part of the units “, explains the professor.
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“I don’t think Transnistrians want to be part of this conflict”
The historical and at the same time that the economic political leaders from Tiraspol do not want to involve the region in conflict.
“I do not think the Transnistrians want to be part of this conflict. Their political side, there is no opposition, the Sheriff’s Group, which controls the region economically and politically, these people do not want to be drawn into the conflict. It’s just the problem of the FSB, the Russian networks in Transnistria, which control the local KGB, control their interior ministry and I don’t know to what extent they control Vadim Krasnoselski (the Tiraspol separatist leader – no.) “, Goșu underlined .
“Russian propaganda is still going at full speed in Moldova today”
This also indicates a big problem that the Chisinau authorities have: they have not stopped Russian propaganda on the territory of the country. “There is a problem in Chisinau. In 2014, when they were told to do the same with Russian television that made Ukrainians, Moldovans worked half-heartedly. Russian propaganda is still going at full speed in Moldova today. “
It is very important that Russian propaganda continued to go there, that television stations were not banned. To date, Russian channels are broadcast in the Republic of Moldova. The world is taking the information. There are people who have been so educated.
Armand Goșu:
“They feel more represented by Putin than by Westerners”
Armand Goșu also says that he learned from former students, who live in Chisinau, that “there is a terrible nervousness on the streets of the city” and that many of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova feel closer to Putin than to the West.
“It does not necessarily come from ethnic Russians, but from Romanians, Moldovans. What is the information about the Russian channels, from Russian propaganda and what is very aggressive. I’m talking about Russia’s revenge on the West. I say the West is to blame for what happened in Ukraine. The disappointment with the transition, with the West, which did not wait for them with open arms, is very great. I feel like they want revenge, revenge. It’s an almost personal thing for them. They feel more represented by Putin than by Westerners. Even though most of them obviously go to the West to work. But that doesn’t mean it makes them more Western, “the historian said.
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