What does Europe’s energy future look like?
“I have made many scientific reports in my time, but nothing like this. Today’s IPCC report is an atlas of human suffering and a condemnatory indictment of failed climate management. “
The words belong to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and they fell on 28 February this year. Four days earlier, Russia had invaded Ukraine.
More than ever, it is urgent to change the energy system.
We asked three researchers at the University of Oslo from different disciplines how they view Europe’s energy promotion.
– We should continue to build plants that capture renewable energy from wind, water and solar, and build nuclear power plants, says chemistry professor Unni Olsbye.
– We can still achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, but the window of opportunity closes. It all really depends on what we get for the next five years, points out Marianne Zeyringer, who researches renewable energy systems.
– Europe will not succeed with the changeover if citizens experience under-coverage of power and extreme prices, says Dag Harald Claes, professor of political science with international politics as a field.
The researchers elaborate on her answers:
Unni Olsbye
– What does Europe’s energy future look like if we are to have an energy system that takes into account both climate and security?
– The EU and Norway have decided that our net emissions of greenhouse gases should be zero in 2050. Ideally, this should be achieved by completely replacing fossil energy with renewable sources, but this presupposes that we have found good storage methods for the renewable energy for use in periods of little access to renewable energy.
She says that Norwegian hydropower plants are far too small to contribute significantly to energy storage in Europe. In the absence of storage capacity, she believes the expansion of nuclear power is the most realistic alternative to ensure security of supply.
– What should we do to get there, reach immediately and in the slightly longer term?
– We should continue to build plants that capture renewable energy from wind, water and solar, and build nuclear power plants. It is a bit probable that we will be able to phase out all fossil energy by 2050. In order to keep global warming within the two-degree target, it will therefore be necessary to make a large-scale investment in CO2 storage, eg CCS, preferably in combination with manufacturing. of hydrogen.
Olsbye says that chemistry is central to all forms of energy conversion – be it solar cells and batteries, hydrogen production, recycling of plastics, capture and conversion of greenhouse gases, and conversion of renewable energy with nitrogen, carbon dioxide and water to storage media such as ammonia and jet fuel.
– Is it a development you see as particularly positive or that takes us in the right direction?
– The political awareness around the danger of so-called carbon leaks that environmentally friendly production in Europe is losing out in competition with products with large greenhouse gas emissions in other parts of the world.
– What are the biggest barriers, as you see it?
– The energy restructuring will require large investments and lead to an increase in the price of a number of goods. Questions about how the load should be distributed, nationally and globally, and which mechanisms provide the desired distribution, are essential. The social sciences become absolutely central here.
Marianne Zeyringer
– What does Europe’s energy future look like if we are to have an energy system that takes into account both climate and security?
– We need a European energy system that is largely electrified and interconnected, with a high proportion of wind and solar energy in combination with energy storage. The price of wind and solar energy has been reduced dramatically and today these technologies are competitive. For heating and transport, we have commercially available technologies that make it possible to electrify these sectors as well.
– Expansion of transmission capacity allows us to take advantage of differences in geographical resources – such as more sun in the south and more wind along the coast. Energy storage such as batteries, hydrogen and pumped storage power plants or hydropower plants with reservoirs make it possible to store electricity until we need it.
– What should we do to get there, reach immediately and in the slightly longer term?
– We can still achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, but the window of opportunity closes. It all really depends on what we get for the next five years.
– This means that we can not wait for technologies that are not yet commercially available, but must decarbonize as much as possible today. We must accelerate the electrification of sectors where possible and quickly implement wind and solar technology.
She says that of course we must also focus on energy efficiency and moving to a circular economy that requires less resources.
– For sectors that are difficult to decarbonise, such as aviation, require more research, but also more action such as investments in the train network that can drastically reduce air travel within Europe.
– Is it a development you see as particularly positive or that takes us in the right direction?
– Cost reductions for a number of key technologies, including batteries that make renewable energy the economically viable alternative even before the high gas prices.
Also the courage and commitment of young people and civic assemblies for the climate, which has emerged in several countries in what the researcher sees as positive.
– What in your subject area will particularly contribute to the change?
– We develop models for energy systems that we can use to study which mix of different technologies in different places makes it possible to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
She says they answer questions such as: How do we design systems that are resistant to weather and climate variations? How much more expensive will it be if we do not expand the transmission capacity or limit wind on land and can we continue to achieve the goals?
Models can support decision-makers and planners in the work of spreading the European energy system.
– The models our requirements for input from other disciplines such as social sciences, climate science and engineering. I believe that it is just by working across disciplines that we can arrive at energy systems that are in line with the Paris Agreement.
– And what are the biggest barriers, as you see it?
– There are still technical challenges around reaching very high proportions of wind and solar energy and how to decarbonise individual sectors, but even more important are socio-political challenges.
She believes politicians must make decisions that they may not think are popular, but that citizens’ assemblies for climate have actually shown that citizens propose ambitious climate roofs.
– In a number of countries, including Norway, protests and changes in permits have led to an almost halt to new expansions of land wind. Wind on land is currently one of the cheapest technologies, and this can really prevent us from reaching our goal.
She says that we find similar problems for transfer projects both within the country and between countries, as in the case of Norway.
– We must work to allow the local population to benefit from energy infrastructure projects. Cooperation between countries will lead to systems that require much less renewable energy capacity and overall storage and thus overall less environmental impact and lower costs. Given the urgency of transforming the energy system is interregional cooperation.
Dag Harald Claes
– What does Europe’s energy future look like if we are to have an energy system that takes into account both climate and security?
– The electricity sector consists of increased elements of solar and wind power, combined with the re-establishment of nuclear power and an element of gas power to ensure flexibility in supply. CO2 emissions from the combustion of natural gases are counteracted with increased capture and storage and, at best, recycling. The transport sector is being electrified and the use of hydrogen is increasing.
– What should we do to get there, reach immediately and in the slightly longer term?
Increase investment in all the mentioned energy sectors. When these are skilled and can supply sufficient amounts of power, the use of oil and coal will gradually disappear from the market. We do not reach the climate targets for 2050, but 2070 may go.
– What in your subject area will particularly contribute to the change?
– These changes change the way society works in many areas. They will not only demand that it sets ambitious goals for the transition, but also that concrete measures be implemented to achieve the goals. Political actors and institutions will be at the heart of this process. Political science is defined as the systematic study of just this.
– Is it a development you see as particularly positive or that takes us in the right direction?
– I think it makes sense for the EU to get nuclear power back on the table. The fact that natural gas is finally approved as a necessary source of transition is also a good sign. Europe will not succeed in the transition if its citizens experience under-coverage of power and extreme prices. It will also invite in political opportunists.
– And what are the biggest barriers, as you see it?
– That the politicians follow up the ambitions with actual effective measures. It is easy to make promises that something will happen in 2050. It is far more demanding to make sure that it actually happens. A week is a long time in politics, in the energy transition consistent policy is required in all countries over a long period of time.