Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called Ukraine’s security framework the result of talks between the Russian and Russian delegations in Istanbul that Crimea and Donbas remained “under guarantee” to be provided. This statement by the Russian minister is fundamentally based on the approach proposed by the Ukrainian one Volodymyr Zelenskyy – agree to consultations on Crimea for the next 15 years and find out the status of the peninsula at the negotiating table.

But in fact, negotiations for 15 years are a deferred status of the territory. All these years, I am sure, on the maps of all countries of the world – except Russia, of course – Crimea will continue to be considered Ukrainian, preservation is preserved, in particular, sanctions for the occupation of Crimea, imposed by the West in 2014.

And what if, in these 15 years, under the severity of sanctions pressure on the Russian regime, it does not survive, will be replaced by less seriousness and more sane power? Who can predict how the status of Crimea will end if the new Russian leadership, trying to make the world happy, recognizes the fact of occupation of the peninsula? This is exactly what Vladimir Putin seems to want to avoid.

Therefore, no illusions are needed.

The demand to recognize Crimea’s “Russian status” will probably be an important part of Russia’s demands now, not in 15 years. As important as the notorious neutral status is “demilitarization” and “denazification”. I even said that the more important part than “demilitarization” and “denazification”. Because neutrality or “denazification” are virtual demands, Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO in the near future, and “denazification” of Russia can probably take place only in the occupied territories – as in Bucha or Borodyanka.

And the occupation of Crimea and the fact that it connects this territory to Russia is still not recognized by the international community – this is a fact that has taken place. And Putin will demand such recognition at least from Ukraine. First of all from Ukraine. Because the Kremlin has a strange, I would even say, absurd hope that if Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russian, even under the barrel of a machine gun, then others will inevitably recognize it.

Another question: can the President of Ukraine make such a confession? I’m sure not. For any Ukrainian president, such surrender of territory is a sure political death. And the president does not have the authority here, it is a question of changing the Constitution. But even if the government decides to do so, it is all the same – two sessions of parliament, a year of postponement… Lavrov has already said that Russia will not agree to this, there is nothing to play with it “cat-bags”.

And this “Crimea beyond” is, I think, one of the most correct answers to the question of whether there is now, although there are chances in the negotiation process after the end of the war waged by Russia against Ukraine. And now you can answer this question yourself.

Special for Crimea. Realities

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