– Are we well enough equipped to meet the new worldview?
Last week, Sjømatbedriftene held Sjømatdagene 2022 at Hell in Trøndelag.
The overarching theme was trade policy, and we asked the questions: Do we see a new form of protectionism on the rise as a result of the pandemic, and how will security policy affect trade policy in the future?
The conference participants were able to sit back in the seats and enjoy insightful reflections on these questions from the panel, which consisted of:
- Sveinung Fjose, Partner in Menon
- Arne Melchior, Senior Researcher Nupi
- Erica B. Dalstø, Chief Strategist at SEB Norway
- Børge Brende, Chairman of the World Economic Forum.
Grows slowly
Sveinung Fjose, in Menon, could tell us that things may not be as good as we like to think. The truth is that Norwegian seafood exports are growing more slowly than world trade in seafood.
This is despite a number of governments’ ambition for strong growth in seafood exports.
The increase in seafood exports measured in USD for the period 2010 to 2019, shows that Norway increased seafood exports by 36% percent, while the OECD countries, and the largest economies outside the OECD, increased exports by 43% in the same period. (Source: OECD 2021).
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Fjose could tell that if we see the development over some time, we have barely exported a kilo more. A new workplace has hardly been created.
As it stands now, exports will also be high in the coming years, but then driven by an extreme situation in the energy market.
Furthermore, it will be stated that the vulnerability covered in 204 others applies, and the probability is high that it will be strengthened in the coming years.
This is clear speech, and had I been on the Seafood Council, I would have been obviously worried.
Protectionist measures are increasing
In addition, we see a growing protection is on the rise. A report from Menon shows that the proportion of export financing outside the OECD regulations allows, increased from 51 to 70 percent in the period 2011 to 2020.
The Menon report also concludes that protectionist measures have increased markedly during the covid-19 pandemic.
Based on 16,000 regulations, The Hinrich Foundation concludes that in 2019 and 2020 there was a doubling in harmful, ie protectionist, regulations. While the amount of deregulation was almost stable, and much lower.
A good example of the new protection is the US tax relief for investments in offshore wind. To obtain the tax benefit, 55 percent of materials must come from the United States.
Another factor is that it has become more difficult to reach Asian markets. The reason is both poor information about market opportunities in addition to bureaucracy and corruption.
The economic center of gravity
We must recognize that the economic center of gravity in the world has shifted from the EU and the US towards Asia and emerging developing countries. The seafood companies are clear that the new worldview requires a reorientation of the export strategy.
Last month, the Minister of Trade and Industry, Jan Christian Vestre, presented the government’s export reform. This is referred to as a major investment and has been named «All of Norway exports».
The ambitious goal is to increase exports by 50 percent excluding oil and gas by 2030. The big question is whether the government’s new export reform is what is needed for Norway to be able to close the export gap?
I’ve been thorough through the strategy – I think unfortunately the answer is no. Now I will not paint black, so I must add in the same breath that it is very positive that we – for the first time – have a government that is able to set a clear export target.
My disappointment lies in how the government looks to achieve these goals. One continues to write out the help that does not work.
Do not sit still
We doubt yesterday’s fragmented organization, bureaucracy and responsibility pulverization.
Another Menon report, from 2020, shows that Norway, on a scale of 1-6, achieves an average grade of 2.2 when it comes to the country’s work to promote exports, while other northern European countries get an average grade of 4.1 and 4.8. This confirms that Norway is far behind in its efforts to promote exports.
The challenges Sweden and Denmark saw in the aftermath of the financial crisis were not only met with increased resource efforts. The countries also chose and organized themselves differently.
Denmark integrates the business promotion work in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and undertook a closer integration of the Export Council at embassy level.
I add created several pointed devices in special priority country.
The seafood companies have set trade policy as one of their most important focus areas. We have a close dialogue with both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and other actors who work to promote Norwegian exports.
We simply cannot sit still and watch the OECD countries achieve greater export value of their seafood yet what we are capable of achieving.
Ambassadors of the industry
If we are to succeed, we must increase our resources. We must become more focused on promoting those sectors that have a particularly good potential, such as the seafood industry. Furthermore, this is further developed that the authorities must become much tougher, and end public support if the export targets are not achieved.
Norway must organize its export work in such a way that foreign policy is used actively to promote companies’ interest.
As mentioned, Sweden and Denmark actively use their embassies to seek opportunities for their countries’ companies. Trade policy should be gathered in one place, either at the Prime Minister’s Office or at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
We need to use ambassadors, and for the seafood industry in interaction with Seafood, far more actively to increase the opportunities for our businesses.
According to Sveinung Fjose in Menon, this must be the key to Denmark, and not Norway, helping South Korea to develop its aquaculture industry.