Oazu Nantoi is a Moldovan parliamentarian and one of the most important political and economic analysts in Chisinau. In an interview with CIS.PL, he said that – so far – the threat of direct aggression against Ukraine from separatist Transnistria (towards Moldova) is small. The Russian forces there, according to Nandoi, are very weak.
This “republic” includes parts of the Autonomous Caucasus and the Bulgarians of Moldova. It should be annexed to the border with Ukraine, where the Caucasus is located. The Russians have held a secret referendum in Transnistria to see if the locals will support joining Novorossia.
However, Novorossiysk’s plan collapsed at that time. The resistance of the Ukrainians in Donbass was very high. However, Russia’s armed forces stationed in Transnistria continue to pose a threat to both Ukraine and Moldova. Three months ago, the Ukrainian navy in Odessa carried out exercises to repel the attack in Transnistria.
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The termination of the Military Cooperation Agreement with Russia in Ukraine in 1993 and 2015 was a major turning point.
In this way, successive age changes were sent to work in the separatist semi-republic. Military equipment was also transported. After 2015, the Russians had the only air route through Chisinau.
This army is not interested in fighting in Ukraine… and many of these soldiers are ethnic Ukrainians living in Transnistria. They have a very lively relationship with their comrades living abroad, which is the result of their family relationships, but also the result of the very lively kidnappings here.
It is therefore difficult to assume that these troops will add any major combat value to the conflict in Ukraine. However, of course, if they are ordered to attack, they will probably go, but will they want to fight?
The Transnistrian military should make similar objections to the so-called. It seems that another 7,000 players, but very poorly equipped. Only older, still Soviet T-64 tanks (probably 15) have heavy equipment. Therefore, it can be assumed that the participation of troops stationed in Transnistria in the war with Ukraine will take place only when it has previously approached Odessa.
Kidnapping instead of separatism
Many of the locals in Transnistria are Moldovan citizens. Will this have an impact on the current state of conflict between “basic” Moldova and the separatist semi-republic?
– Since the end of hostilities in the region in 1992, the situation has changed dramatically. Fighting has been replaced primarily by illegal trade and trafficking. The abduction was carried out by Transnistrian officials, Ukrainian customs and politicians in Chisinau. Suitcases containing dollars were given to the “makers” of the Kremlin.
Officials from the Russian delegation stationed in Transnistria brought them these donations… Business flourished. Some Moldovan passports in Transnistria are not patriotic, but the result is that you can travel with them through Europe (since 2014) without a visa.
In addition, Bulgarian passports are issued in Transnistria. Because Bulgarians also live there, the “president” of Transnistria was born somewhere beyond Vadim Krasnozylsky Baikal. However, he has Ukrainian citizenship. His wife Svetlana (Russian language teacher) is a Romanian citizen.
Representatives of Transnistrian business companies Republic of Moldova in relations with European Union companies.
These examples show how politics is intertwined with economics (understood very differently). Therefore, it is difficult to call Transnistria directly the bridge of Russia… it is an unpopulated province of wild interests.
Even in the Soviet era, the census shows that 750,000 people now live there – no more than 300,000, of whom 140,000 are retired.
What is the relationship between Sinav and Transnistria now?
– The Moldovan officials did not show any specific activity in the task of “reunifying” the region. Although it is not known how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved… However, it is clear that it must start with the militarization of the regions. However, this will be possible if there is peace in Ukraine. Independent Ukraine!
The current government of the Republic of Moldova, which was formed in August last year, initially had to fight the government’s disease. Then there was Gasprom’s threat to gas supplies. When it was over, it was about the crisis around Ukraine. Thus, the repatriation arrangements for refugees began in Chisinau, although at that time, at the end of autumn, we still hoped that the war would not break out.
At present, it can be said that Moldova was very prepared to receive a lot of refugees, and the Central Committee was confirmed by international organizations leading the official events of the European Union. Because Brussels has helped us to help refugees.
That doesn’t change the fact that Moldovans are constantly stressed. War can come much faster here than in Romania or Poland protected by NATO.
The country’s authorities have also launched an official campaign against false news. They produce a lot in Moscow. The only purpose of this information is to confuse, not to trust the fugitives…
Find out the consequences of fighting online lies. Last week, a message appeared on the website of the Russian Embassy in Chisinau if anyone felt threatened by the West, to go to the embassy and talk about the “evil” of… Known slogan: “Idide na…” was often repeated), because the message disappeared immediately.
So Moldovans feel that the future fate of their country is determined during the war in Ukraine.
Poland, Romania, the Union, NATO
The Polish president was recently in Chisinau. Do you see the positive effects of these visits?
– It is difficult to talk about a certain support. However, such visits are important because of the feeling that someone is thinking of us and that someone is listening to us. After all, it is not just about the war in Ukraine… “a moment ago”, together with Ukraine and Georgia, we applied for accession to the European Union. The support of countries like Poland would be very important.
Do the people of Moldova also want to join the EU?
– There is a certain tension in the community. On the one hand, there are three times as many supporters who join the union as those who want to enter into closer relations with Russia. On the other hand, many believe that the application signed by Maia Sandu will annoy Russia (despite the support for European access). As many annoying foreign journalists from Moldova ask, we do not want to meet Romania again.
Read also: Moldova wants to join the EU, but Russia sets sanctions
In anticipation of such a question, I can say that in the last 30 years no party that proposed the idea of annexing Romania has received 5 percent of the vote. Election votes. Romanian officials have not once spoken on the subject. So this is a dead end.
Even if a Moldovan says he is leaving for Romania, it is an expression of his distrust of the Moldovan state. This seems to be more the case when we are not looking at a war across the border.
Armed Moldova?
So far, Moldova has presented itself as a neutral country, where the army is just a symbol. Recently, however, Mia Sandu announced the need for a significant increase in defense spending.
– Let’s be realistic… Let’s see who we limit ourselves to. We will not fight against Romania or Ukraine. So it is known that it is about Russia. We will not defend ourselves. There are still plans to join NATO.
About 20 percent of the community supports or such a decision. But NATO has little interest in recognizing an ongoing border country.
We also currently spend 0.39 percent on security. GDP per year. Somehow it is inconceivable that the budget should support the 2 percent needed recently in the coalition.