Fidesz may have a two-thirds majority, and the election is over
Although, according to Median, the victory of Fidesz-KDNP is almost certain and its extent is questionable, according to Závecz Research, two sociological events in the last week could have a big and unpredictable effect. One is the effectiveness of the mobilization campaign, and the other is the decision of the electorate who only define themselves in the last days.
András Pulai, head of the Publicus Institute for Népszava said, there is a 5-7 percent group of voters who, at the last minute of the campaign, decide whether to go to the polls and, if so, to whom. According to Publicus, the list of Fidesz-KDNP and Hungary for Hungary in the United Kingdom can also count on a 47-47 percent vote of the party voters who are sure to vote. 28 percent of those surveyed said they were insecure voters who, because of their tight stance, could be key in influencing the outcome of an election.
Gábor Tóka, research professor at CEU according to the average of the opinion polls is our best estimate of what will happen in reality, but he still sees the statistical margin of error at 21 percentage points, so the opinion polls conducted before the Hungarian election could significantly distort it.
Estimating the manos on the list is also very difficult because, in addition to the proportion of domestic votes in Hungary, Hungarians living abroad and abroad also count, but because of the “winning compensation”, it does not matter how much difference the candidate wins in each district wins.
In our previous article, we have already summarized the main features of winning compensation and losing compensation.