Hockey in numbers: Preview semis – Sparta Prague vs. Ceske Budejovice Hokej.cz
Photo: hcmotor.cz
Thanks to our Game Score model, we also bring you an analysis of all series of this year’s playoffs after the predictions of the entire season and individual matches of the basic parts.
Prague’s Sparta and České Budějovice’s Motor won seven games in the fifth match of their series. The engine succeeded against Pardubice, and Sparta then defeated the resistance of Liberec in the second longest play-off match in the third overtime. Together, they completed Třinec as a successful team from the first four of the basic part, when only Hradec Králové’s Mountfield did not manage its role against Mladá Boleslav.
Like Třinec and Mladá Boleslav, Sparta is at six again after a year. This time, however, České Budějovice will challenge her instead of Liberec. In the year, Sparta has just dropped out with Liberec at six, in the decisive seventh match. This time she had dealt with the White Tigers a step earlier.
Prediction
Before the start of the season, Sparta, together with Třinec, was the biggest favorite at the bookmakers to win the title. However, the course of the season was not easy for Sparta, but over time, the people of Prague took shape until they finally worked their way to the final third place. Thanks to that, they will not start the series with Motor on home ice.
The favorite in this semifinal match in our model is relatively clearly Sparta, which lags behind only Třinec in the overall ranking. Against Motor, Sparta has a 73% chance of advancing, when last year against Liberec it was, on the contrary, an almost balanced series with chances of about 50 to 50.
České Budějovice, on the other hand, is rated the worst of the four other teams, so our model gives them the least chance of winning the extra-league title. However, during the season, even in the quarterfinals against Pardubice, the engine showed that it means nothing and can beat stronger opponents.
Just against Sparta, Motor managed to rejoice three times in the basic part, Sparta then scored its first win in mutual matches only in the last mutual measurement of forces. In addition, the mutual matches were in all cases very balanced matches in terms of shooting opportunities and created chances of both teams. So, not only that, our model clearly favors Sparta, it will definitely not be a one-sided series and Motor will not give up without a proper fight.
Team comparison
Why Sparta is such a big favorite can also be seen by comparing the two teams in the basic part. Offensive Sparta was clearly one of the best teams in the competition, not only in the 5 on 5 game, but also in power play. České Budějovice, on the other hand, lagged far behind the best in the offensive phase, but it made up for it with one of the best shooting successes, which in the long run is relatively questionable.
But back to Sparta. The one in the basic part was the second most dangerous overall in the attacking period after Pardubice, when it created a chance for 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes. She managed to turn it into more than 2.9 goals scored, and her attack was the most effective in a 5-on-5 game.
Although Sparta did not create a large number of shots, when it had the tenth highest number of shooting attempts, it got into the slot area, and especially in the pre-goal area was by far the best team in the extra league.
Sparta then showed its offensive power in the basic part and in the power games. And also in a series with Liberec, where she turned six of the 14 powerlifters. In the basic part, Sparta had 8.3 goals in 60 minutes, when it was surpassed only by Třinec. However, Sparta had a better interplay, with the largest number of shooting attempts of all teams, the most frequent shots from the slot and an overall chance of 9.1 expected goals, the most of all teams.
České Budějovice, on the other hand, was one of the worst teams in the basic part of offensive activities in a 5-on-5 game. They lagged significantly behind Sparta, especially in the creation of attempts from the slot, which they had only 15.6 in 60 minutes, which ranks them 13th.
The same is true for the overall creation of chances, when Budějovice had opportunities for only 2.1 expected goals. Thanks to the second best shooting success, however, expectations were significantly exceeded and he scored the fourth highest number of goals with 2.44 goals per hour of the game 5 on 5.
In addition, Motor lags behind Sparta in defensive activities, as Sparta eliminated opponents’ chances at 2.16 expected goals, while Motor at 2.3. However, the engine could significantly rely on the performance of goalkeepers in a 5-on-5 game, then Dominika Hrachovina in particular, when he collected the fourth smallest number of goals. Hrachovina then cast a spell in the series against Pardubice, so it will be important for him to transfer his form to the semis.
Reports
It can be expected that it will be a duel of the Spartan offensive with Dominik Hrachovina. Sparta definitely commands respect in this year’s attack, as it has six forwards in its staff, who are among the top 20 in their game score. Three of them are among the top five, with Sparta having four representatives in the top ten. The engine can compete with Sparta only with a strong duo Lukáš Pech and Milan Gulaš.
So Sparta assembled three very high-quality offensive formations for the playoffs; in addition, Zdeněk Doležal or Jan Buchtele remain outside the line-up. But the main engine of the offensive was David Tomášek in the series against Liberec. He scored nine points in five matches for four goals and five assists. Of all the players, he clearly achieved the best rating in the Game Score, when his average performance was 2.5 in the series.
Vladimír Sobotka and Filip Chlapík were also among the top five, even though the most productive player of the basic part did not register as a shooter. However, he was still clearly visible on the ice and had six assists. In the 5 on 5 game, the ratio of expected goals was 72% and he was on the ice with five goals scored and two goals scored.
Michal Řepík is also waiting for the goal in the playoffs, when he scored only five assists in five matches. But definitely not because he wasn’t visible on the ice. Řepík was the second most frequent scorer in the quarterfinals with 42 attempts and overall he created the second best chances, specifically for the 2.7 expected goals. If she continues with these performances, the Defense of the Engine should be careful.
When we said defense, Sparta also had a significant impact on offensive performance. Adam Polášek and Tomáš Pavelka scored three goals against Liberec, and Michal Moravčík is waiting for a more significant contribution, but he certainly did not disappoint in the series, and in the basic part he was the best defender of Sparta.
Moravčík had the best ratio of expected goals from the stable defense of Sparta, when the season ended with a ratio of 59.3% and was among the top ten. At the same time, in a 5-on-5 game, he collected the second highest number of points from the backs, when he scored 1.5 in 60 minutes.
In this regard, we will come across five Sparta forwards among the attackers before we reach the first representative of České Budějovice. Vladimír Sobotka, Filip Chlapík, Michal Řepík, Erik Thorell and Roman Horák were among the top ten in scoring at 5 to 5. In addition, Sparta divided the five players into three different attacks for the playoffs.
On the Motor side, Lukáš Pech was the most productive player in the 5 to 5 game, scoring 2.15 points in 60 minutes and ranking 13th. Martin Hanzl and Milan Gulaš, who close the second ten, supplemented him in the offensive.
While the Sparta players were able to lose significantly in a 5-on-5 game, Lukáš Pech had an expected ratio of only 47.5% in the basic part. Milan Gulaš was similar with a ratio of 46.2%. And if this pair spends a large amount of time in their own third and against Sparta, a big problem can arise for České Budějovice.
In the quarterfinal series, the most productive Motor player after Pech was defender Petr Šenkeřík, who scored four assists when three of them were primary. In addition, he was one of the few Motor players in the series with a positive expected goal ratio of 58%. In addition, he was on the ice with three goals scored and one goal scored in a 5-on-5 game.
In the basic part, however, Šenkeřík did not do so well, when the ratio of expected goals was 45%, and only Stuart Percy was worse of the defenders. Of the defenders of České Budějovice, only Jan Štencel and Roman Vráblík were in positive numbers, with a ratio of 52 and 51%, respectively.
The main character of Motor in the quarterfinals was the goalkeeper Dominik Hrachovina. He collected 4.2 goals less than expected in the series and was second behind Gašper Krošelj in this respect. In addition, he significantly signed the winnings in match number one and three, when Pardubice was clearly a better team.
In the basic part, Hrachovina was also among the top goalkeepers. In a 5-on-5 game, he collected 9.8 goals less than expected and ranked in the top five. However, he did not manage to weaken too much, when after taking into account all the game situations, he collected only 1.6 goals less and thus belonged only to slightly excessive goalkeepers.
Conclusion
Sparta is the clear favorite of the series from most angles. Quality more or less plays its advantage in all activities and should have the upper hand over Motor in the 5 on 5 game and in special teams, where its overpowering games are threatened and every exclusion can cost České Budějovice dearly.
For further success, the engine must deliver its maximum possible power and hope that it will bring its luck in the end, even when it will have to use every hesitation of the Spartan defense. At the same time, Dominik Hrachovina will need to have the team’s performance ahead of him, just as the semis did in the basic part. Sparta’s failure would come as a surprise in terms of statistics, model and bookmakers. However, hockey can often be unpredictable and the Motor is definitely not without a chance.
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter