Hockey in numbers: Quarterfinal preview – Sparta Prague vs. Liberec Hokej.cz
Photo: hcbilitygri.cz
Thanks to our Game Score model, we also bring you an analysis of all series of this year’s playoffs after the predictions of the entire season and individual matches of the basic parts.
For a long time, Prague’s Sparta played well below all pre-season expectations. From the second half, however, its results began to correspond with the game and Sparta rose to the final third place with a gain of 99 points. Although she did not repeat her result from last season, the final state after the basic part is not bad for Sparta at all.
In the quarterfinals, Sparta will face a duel against the Liberec White Tigers. Both teams will repeat their duel from last year’s semifinal, in which Liberec rejoiced after seven matches. He experienced results in this year’s basic part and finished seventh. He had to make it to the quarterfinals through the preliminary round, where he managed in five matches with Kometa. However, it was definitely not a simple matter.
Prediction
With the performance that Liberec showed in the matches two to four preliminary rounds, it would definitely not have a chance to succeed against Sparta. Until the start of the quarterfinals, you must definitely work on your game in Liberec, when it comes to the fight for promotion among the top four in the role of outsider.
Before entering the playoffs, Sparta is evaluated in our model as the second strongest team after Třinec. Her chances of advancing to six are about 62%, so it will definitely not be a simple matter. Sparta has a chance of a title of less than 20%, when it is similar to Mountfield in Hradec Králové.
HC Sparta Prague
Sparta’s ambitions are the highest every year, in the last following year its journey stopped in Liberec, and even this year the pre-season expectations were high. The staff with which Sparta bet also corresponded to this.
For a long time, however, this Sparta was plagued mainly by the goal area, which kept it away from the positions guaranteeing a direct advance to the quarterfinals. However, Matěj Machovský took solid form in the second half of the season, and the basic part ended up in the top ten goalkeepers in a 5 to 5 game. Machovský collected 6.9 goals less than expected in total. In the sum of all game situations, he was even third, collecting 11.5 goals less.
While Sparta had some gaps in the goal area, on the contrary, it was one of the best in the offensive throughout the basic part. If we look at the number of shooting attempts, Sparta is in 10th place with less than 51 shots in 60 minutes, but he created the third highest number of shots from the slot area, when there were less than 20 at the same time and only narrowly behind Mountfield. .
In addition, Sparta players get to their shots in very dangerous situations, when, despite the smaller quantity, the Sparta shots were of great quality. Overall, the people of Prague created a chance for 2.7 expected goals, which is the second highest value after the Dynamo in Pardubice.
In conjunction with a quality finish, Sparta had the best offensive in a 5 to 5 game, turning its chances into 2.94 goals in 60 minutes of play. Sparta’s most dangerous team was during a longer stay in the offensive zone, but at the same time it threatened fast counterattacks, in which only one team was better. Related to this is another advantage of Sparta, and these are controlled entrances to the zone in which it was the second best. Thanks to that, she was able to expand her offensive actions in the zone.
Overall, Sparta had the second best goal difference after Mountfield, scoring nine-tenths of a goal more than their opponents every 60 minutes. The difference in expected goals was then plus 0.53 goals, which puts her in fifth place.
Sparta’s attack was also excellent with numerous advantages, where Sparta was the best team in several metrics. Sparta’s overpowering formations made up almost 112 shooting attempts in 60 minutes, when only four other teams exceeded the value of 100 attempts. At the same time, Sparta clearly had the most shots on goal, when with 65 shots it was the only team with a value of more than 60 shots per hour of play in the numerical advantage. From the slot, he was the only team to send over 30 shots to the goal in the same time.
All this counted in the value of the expected goals that Sparta had 9.1. The second best Comet in this direction had one whole goal less than Sparta. She then turned her chances into 8.3 goals in 60 minutes and remained only behind Třinec.
Filip Chlapík was the best player of the basic part in the power play games. He scored 27 of his 70 points in numerous advantages, and was the third most productive player in this game situation. Overall, Chlapík was clearly the best in terms of Game Score. In the 5 on 5 game, Chlapík was one of the best in almost all activities, but he was most threatened by quick attacks, when the quality of his entrances into the zone and the chances subsequently created was among the best.
With a basic number of players, the guy scored 2.8 points in 60 minutes and ranked second, just behind his modern Vladimír Sobotka. In addition, Sparta has three other representatives in the top ten, namely Michal Řepík, Erik Thorell and Roman Horák.
Michal Řepík, together with Chlapík, was one of the best extra-league shooters when he scored 24 goals. He also succeeded in shooting 5 on 5, where he averaged 1.3 goals in 60 minutes, which puts him in third place. At the same time, Řepík and Anthony Camara were the most dangerous players for their opponents, when he created a chance for 1.2 expected goals.
In defense, it is necessary to highlight the game of Michal Moravčík, who returned to the extra league from abroad before the season. In the 5 on 5 game, he was the second best scoring back after Jan Košťálek with 1.54 points in 60 minutes. In addition, he had a very solid effect on shooting attempts and expected goals, as their ratio increased during his stay on the ice by 4.3 and 5.4 percent, respectively. Moravčík’s greatest advantage is creativity, when he was among the five percent of the best defenders in creating chances for the last, and in the passing from his own third he was the best in the frequency of performances in the possession of the disc.
Tomáš Pavelka also performed traditionally solid performances, Maxim Matuškin, who manages the first power play, did well, and Adam Polášek completes the high-quality TOP 4. In short, Sparta has a very balanced team this year, with a strong attack and back support.
White Tigers Liberec
Liberec’s progress among the best was extremely demanding for the White Tigers and certainly exciting for the spectators. In the series with Kometa, 100 percent of the home ice worked, and Liberec used it in the fifth match, which he controlled in the game. Like the first one. In the meantime, however, the Brno Kometa had the upper hand. If Liberec leaves a similar initiative to Sparta, it can work out very quickly.
There weren’t many players in the Liberec jersey who would lose their opponents in the series, but Jakub Klepiš was definitely one of them. In the 5 on 5 game, the ratio of shooting attempts was 54% and the ratio of expected goals was 69.3%. In addition, he was on the ice with five goals scored and only one goal collected. Klepiš also contributed four points for two goals and two assists.
David Gríger was also successful, omitting the last matches of the basic part. However, like Klepiš, he scored four points in the series and in the 5-on-5 game he was on the ice with six goals scored and two collected goals with a ratio of expected goals of 61.8%.
We must also mention Ladislav Šmíd, who is playing his last playoff. He scored seven assists and none of the players in the preliminary round had more points than the Liberec back. Even though she had more from the game Kometa, Šmíd was on the ice with goals in the ratio 6: 2 for Liberec.
The White Tigers face hard work against Sparta, as they lagged behind it in the long-term part of most activities. The confrontation of the Spartan offensive with Petr Kváča, who has long been one of the best extra-league goalkeepers, will certainly be interesting.
Conclusion
The favorite of this series is relatively clear when Sparta’s chances are higher than 60%. Its offensive power is really great, and the great weight of Liberec’s chances will thus lie with Petr Kváč’s performances. On the other hand, Sparta has shown that defense is not often one of its strengths, so if Liberec can use it and find loopholes in Sparta’s defensive ranks, it can be, as in the previous past, a long battle.
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