On the threshold of the new Cold War. The heated atmosphere is likely to last for several years iROZHLAS
We are on the threshold of a new Cold War. Although it would be best for the Kremlin to reverse, either through diplomatic negotiations or under threat of economic sanctions, it is more likely that the aggravated atmosphere will last not only for months, but for years.
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While for today’s Thirties, the Cold War is just a concept from the distant past, we a little older know what to expect. Although in a different role than last time.
Lukáš Jelínek: On the threshold of the Cold War
Until the 1980s, we were the western island of the Soviet bloc. But the West was acting quite predictably at the time, and greater danger from Moscow than we had witnessed in 1968 could no longer come. Now there is a threat that a successful imaginary iron curtain on the western border of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, again not far from us.
It will not be necessary to invent a wheelbarrow, the varied arsenal of Cold War instruments is already offered by the theory of international relations.
New Cold War
At the beginning of the last one, in March 1946, there was a fulton speech by Winston Churchill, in which he warned of the expansion of the Soviet Union and called for close cooperation between the Anglo-Saxon nations against the threat of communism. At the same time, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin formulated a thesis about the inevitability of wars during the existence of capitalism.
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Vladimir Putin’s resemblance to alleged denazification and demilitarization will probably not be purely coincidental. The invasion of Ukraine can easily be only the first part of the series, while in others there can be, for example, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland or Finland.
At the same time, let us look back for a moment from what is militarily and economically realistic, and stick to the considerations that can run through the Russian president. Apparently he is ready to play bait and the big question is whether there is strength in his country and strength to tame him.
The West can learn from the actions of previous leaders. As part of the division of spheres of influence, one can look forward to a strategy of containment and pushing, it will arm itself and compete in the conquest of space. The only difference is that it will compete between three and four actors. Russia, China and the United States are clear, the mystery of the European Union is still ready to be fourth at the table.
But let us remember that European integration was a by-product of the Cold War. May the still growing international atmosphere kick us into a willingness to forget about frictions and engage in the preparation of common policies, even on such sensitive issues as energy or the social system.
As for, there is one to wait on the European path – to overcome the brain deaths of the North Atlantic and the North Atlantic, which are kind of defended by French President Macron’s US partnership with the strengthening of Emmanuel.
Everyday reality
If so far it has only been about high politics somewhere above our heads, it is necessary to mention the impact on everyday life in the Czech Republic. The beginning is a wave of refugees from the East and a sharp rise in prices – first fuel and then things related to them.
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Budgetary policy will change and more money will go to defense. A debate will unfold on the return of compulsory warfare, at least partial training of civilians or the establishment of a militia. It will be necessary to freshly think about the efficient energy mix, but also the pillars of social policy.
The welfare state in the West has also been derived from the Cold War in the last century, mainly to prevent tensions between groups within society. The importance of political consensus between a democratic government and a democratic opposition will increase. The disharmony of the highest constitutional officials in relation to foreign countries will become a luxury we will not be able to afford.
To this we add the information and propaganda war, which will be even greater than before the invention of the Internet.
We will not do without an effective state pulling together with our allies and without responsible citizenship, in which we will not see an enemy in the state, but a partner, or even better, a value that we must protect ourselves. As the example of Ukraine shows, we can shake the basics before you say shoemaker.
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