Fear that Polish fighter jets to Ukraine could trigger Russian reaction
Russian authorities are warning Poland against supplying fighter jets to Ukraine via a US military base. Military experts think Western countries should think carefully.
“This is highly undesirable and a potentially dangerous scenario,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday, while Russian forces continued their advance in Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyj, has asked Western countries for a speedy decision regarding the delivery of the Soviet-produced fighter aircraft MIG-29.
– When will it be a decision? Look, we are at war, says Zelenskyj in a video posted on the app Telegram on Wednesday.
– We ask Dive once again to decide as soon as possible. Send us planes, he continues.
Cool reception
The US Department of Defense has so far rejected the proposal from Poland to supply fighter jets to Ukraine via a US military base in Germany.
They believe such a solution is unjustifiable since it could lead to the war spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders, according to the news agency AP.
Military experts also warn that Russia may perceive fighter jets as an aggressive act. They think that is why western countries are reluctant to send them.
– It seems as if there is disagreement among NATO countries about what should be listed as a transmitter of aircraft. I think this is an expression that at least in Poland and the USA there is no disagreement if it is a good idea, one is more worried about what signal it gives to Russia, says senior researcher Kristian Søby Kristensen at the Center for Military Studies at Copenhagen University.
The case has also created clutter in the relationship between Poland and the United States since Poland launched the proposal publicly without having aired it with the Biden administration.
Border to Ukraine
– I think there are other countries that would be more careful, and I also think that is why it is the United States and Poland that are mixed in this with sending weapons on. Because they are willing to consider it in the first place.
According to Søby Kristensen, Poland is worried because the country borders Ukraine and has many refugees. At the same time, the country is known for belonging to the wing of NATO that wants a hard line against Russia.
Claus Mathiesen, associate professor at the Defense Academy in Copenhagen, also believes that Poland is afraid of becoming a target for a Russian reaction if they deliver fighter jets directly to Ukraine. And they will be, whether the aircraft is delivered from Poland or a US military base, he believes.
– I have no doubt that Russia will see it as an aggressive act. If Russia perceives it that way, I do not think they will differentiate between whether it is Poland, the United States or others who do it. I think they will react to the one who is the most visible donor, and it will be Poland, says Mathiesen to the news agency Ritzau.
Harris to Poland
Russia’s Defense Ministry has also warned that countries that provide air bases to advise on Ukrainian air strikes against Russia will be considered a party to the conflict.
– I have a hard time seeing where this ends, but I would say that if it ends up with one delivering the plane, then Russia reacts, and it is most likely that they will react against Poland, says Mathiesen.
US Vice President Kamala Harris has got the tricky case right in her lap while she announced a two-day trip to Poland and Romania. On Thursday, she will thank Poland for welcoming many Ukrainian refugees and visiting Ukrainian refugees. Now she must also try to calm down the fighter plane case.
– This fighter jet situation is a messy affair, and Harris has to go there and smooth things out, says Daniel Fried, who was the US ambassador to Poland when Bill Clinton was president.
– There are lots of discussions ahead of us that we must have with the Poles, and which is better to have face to face, Fried states.
(© NPK)
Polish fighter jets, two Soviet-made MIG-29s, during an air show in Radom, Poland in August 2011. Photo: Alik Keplicz / AP / NTB