Lukashenko’s problems: Lithuania has touched on the regime’s painful and weak position
In recent weeks, the authoritarian Belarusian leader, or as he likes to call himself, dictator Lukashenko, has poured more than usual on Lithuania. The historical events of January 13 were called “provocations”, G. Landsbergis did not like him either, he was constantly threatened with the “consequences” of the neighboring state, and in an interview with Vladimir Solovyov he stated that Lithuania would “swear”.
Belaruskalij no longer has the means to transport products
The reason for this could be Belaruskalij, which, after the announcement of sanctions by the USA and European countries about its transportation problems.
“It simply came to our notice then. And not because it is a potassium fertilizer, but because 11-12 mln. tons – which is a huge mass that needs to be transported, ”Lukashenko explained.
According to him, the transit of Belarusian fertilizers was “offered by Ukraine”, but later refused.
Last year, Belaruskalij produced 12 million. tons of potassium fertilizers, more than 10 tons of which were for export. Virtually all exports were made through Lithuania, and Belaruskalij’s annual turnover amounted to 2.41 billion. the whole. Belarus’s budget for visas in 2020 amounted to 60 mln. the whole.
Russia is not showing enthusiasm yet
It is not yet clear how far the negotiations with Russia, a “strategic partner”, have progressed. Mr Lukashenko says “there has been talk for a long time and Moscow is helping”. However, talk about the transfer of exports of Belaruskalij products to a Russian port is not going on for the first year, and the result is still unknown.
Mr Lukashenko claimed that if Lithuania restricted the movement of Belarusian fertilizers, Minsk would turn to Russia. “It simply came to our notice then. And by the North Sea route, we will deliver to China, our main market, to India in the shortest possible way, ”he explained in August 2021.
The Murmansk regional government was already “negotiating” at the time. However, more than half a year has passed and no momentum has yet been seen in this regard.
“If we compare Russia’s temptation to concessions to Belarus for the transportation of oil products, the situation is quite different with potassium,” said economist Katerina Bornukova of Zerkalo, explaining that some may be transported through Murmansk, but not to such an extent. how it was done through Lithuania.
She noted that the Russian company Uralkali is building new terminals in the country’s ports, as the current transportation volumes are insufficient. This raises the question of how Belarusian fertilizers would be incorporated into the transport infrastructure.
According to experts, Russian companies may avoid open cooperation with the Belarusian industrial giant due to the threat of theoretical US sanctions.
Sanction for Belaruskali
At the end of last year, US sanctions on Belaruskali came into force. Unlike the sanctions announced in Europe, in this case they apply to all the company’s products.
In Lithuania, through which most of the fertilizers produced in Belarus were transported through the port of Klaipeda, the need for such sanctions was emphasized even before this world decision, and promises were made to impose sanctions on Minsk from December. However, milder EU sanctions have put Lithuania on a tougher side, forcing it to effectively restrict transit exports from Belarus.
On December 21, Lithuania announced that the transportation of Belaruskalij by Lithuanian railways was a threat to security in the country and the contract with the Belarusians was soon terminated. In response, Minsk also restricted part of Lithuania’s transit exports through its country.