Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is getting closer. What about Poland?
The Russians have already gathered a very large place at the border. Until a few days ago, it became known that Moscow was not ready to go swimming. At the same time, however, the fact that people first switched over with equipment allowed access to the personnel serving the soldiers.
Russia’s steps are affected by the fact that it has surrounded Ukraine in preparation. Russian agriculture is currently present in Belarus, Transcarpathia, Donbas, Crimea, the transfer of the Russian fleet to the Black Sea, that Moscow also has the possibility of landing from the south. One cannot forget about the Russian contingent in previous Ukrainian Ukraine, as was the case with the attack on Odessa before. The Russians, having numerous numbers at their disposal, have places where Ukrainians are delivered using one place for several episodes as a front.
No, we’re going to attack if you want, if you want before the thaws you want to repeat. The melts took actions to facilitate quick, leveling actions in operations and facilitating actions, starting actions, starting operational actions.
A combination and strictly weather elements (combat readiness of the units given by players).
Putin’s political defeat
Politically, Moscow managed to neither intimidate Ukraine, nor – even fame, taking into account the insignificant attitude of Germany – the ambiguous implementation of the West. It is possible to rectify that the Russian action is counterproductive: it is leading to a sharpening of the West’s stance towards Russia and to carrying out actions against NATO’s flank.
The strength of Ukraine and the cohesiveness of the West are salutary. Moscow sees that the attitude forced by threats, which would end in a war in any case, will not exist. The experience of the appeasement policy proves that they only insult the aggressor. This aggressor was and remains only.
When logic fails
A rational analysis of the balance of power and interests of the Russian side, the analysis of the natural nonsense of the war. The point is that there are different levels of rationality in the logic of different social groups that deal with the same lead paths.
In the case of Russia, first of all, the interests of the elite, which cannot function without a point of view, should be taken into account. Second, the kleptocratic nature of governments that, by silencing questions about their own theft, possibly supply a nationalist nation with a drug for a while. And finally, because you want Russians, whether we like it or not, they are addicted to this drug.
Hydrocarbons and theft
Perhaps the cause will contribute to the more and more progress of the war, history will indicate the energy revolution of the West and the gradual abandonment of fossil fuels. This means that the fat understands that it will only weaken and if you want to “recapture” Ukraine, it’s only now.
In fact, however, it will be elitist – if it comes to the fact that the Russians preferred to steal multi-billion dollar revenues from sales and sales instead of trading substitutes in economic reforms.
War costs
For Russia, the costs of an attack on Ukraine would be enormous. Strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, easing the Ukrainians’ future route to Russia, Western sanctions and political isolation. Successes logically convey all the benefits.
The problem with this logic is that it doesn’t take one into account. The fact that the Russians have not learned to respect other nations and comment theoretically, they do not want war, but how much the costs are not too high – joyfully new in Kharkiv, Odessa or even the author.
Propaganda as a forecast
There is one more, rarely lifted, devices that show that war is approaching. Well, if you need a decision, how much do you want to be ordered propaganda propaganda in Ukraine. Nothing of the sort takes place.
On the contrary, the Russians insult not only the United States, Great Britain or Poland, but even France, which is social towards itself. The way it was recognized by the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who Russian reports did not trap the plane, ordering on foot with service to the building, and a task by the President of France outside the French airport and the coronavirus test results that Moscow wants not I want.
Also other equal Polish emissions of Emil, with each competitor giving better notification of migrants.
It can be done in a state that the Kremlin may lose control or become the establishment that takes place in a state in a European state, but swap from law to law of the Russian judicial authority.
Interests of Poland
You almost absolutely have to go too high.
The war will affect the entire territory of eastern Ukraine, in the most far-reaching scenario – also Kiev. Moscow decided to occupy an occupation that is unrealistic, Russia would bleed out because it means that you are thinking with the Ukrainian anti-party party.
It is in the interest of Poland to pay for the rematch, Russia, the price, including the payment. Poland has failed to play an important role in introducing a sanction, but may apply in maintaining it. The Kremlin probably assumes that after a few or years the West will return to business as usual. For this to happen, Poland has to improve its image. The West can survive and play with Russian propaganda, trolls and ladies against us with propaganda campaigns.
With Russia it starts in the beginning or a few dozen years it is necessary to start. This time, however, on the condition that the Russians would not want, as when Boris Yeltsin joined the authorities, only the “good tsar”, but then they would no longer miss the tsar in this form.
Poland, as we wrote in Onet, is not threatened with war.
Conclusions for Poland
30 years ago, we assumed that our security would be provided by a buffer in the form of independent Belarus and Ukraine. In the situation of making a choice in front of our eyes and our eyes, Belarus, and the increasingly real sector of Western Ukraine, Ukraine, is considered an unfulfilled dream.
Poland with a strong American present army present in our country, in which it can now become a present West Germany. Perhaps these are the most beautiful options for us.
The Russian attack on Ukraine may also be an opportunity to change Germany’s course towards Russia. That it would require our diplomacy to change the overexcitement and repair the campaign against Berlin into friendly assertiveness and the side of the road which – after all, under the American umbrella – were followed by Paris and Berlin.
This will only be possible if our, and also German, elites are smarter than the Russian elites. Russia in front of our eyes, losing benefits because its elites, as always in history, steal. We, because our elite, as always in history, are unable to communicate.
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