What is the risk of Moldova if Russia attacks Ukraine? – Guard newspaper
On Monday, January 31, at the request of the United States, the United Nations Security Council met in New York to discuss the situation around Ukraine and the threat to international peace and security posed by the concentration of more than 120,000 Russian troops on the border. Ukraine. It happened after all the negotiations of a few months, in bilateral and multilateral format USA-Russia-NATO-OSCE could not cancel the risks of a war, which could go beyond the physical borders of Ukraine and Russia.
Russian-Ukrainian crisis: What is the risk of Moldova if Russia attacks Ukraine?
Ion Leahu, former CUC member from the Republic of Moldova
Ukraine is very important for Russia, because it controls the mouths of the Danube, a segment of the Pontic Sea, partly – the Carpathians. They are strategic bridgeheads… The incorporation of Ukraine would simplify the return of Belarus and Moldova, then the Caucasus and Asian states to Russia’s sphere of influence. But Russia does not expect that it will face such massive confrontation or resistance from the United States and the EU. Today it can be admitted, with a high degree of probability, that a total war between Russia and Ukraine will not take place. However, this does not exclude the application of weapons in small quantities and the return of the Republic of Moldova, bundled with Ukraine, to the orbit of Moscow. We cannot rule out that one of the scenarios for the application of weapons could be the challenges against Russian troops in the Transnistrian region, which would result in an attack on Ukraine or Chisinau. Obviously, the Republic of Moldova could try to safeguard its sovereignty by using its neutral status under international law. But there is no sign of the force that could apply these international rules… Moldova has no agreements that would allow it to appeal to other states to defend its sovereignty. One could try to negotiate an exchange with Moscow: we cede Transnistria in exchange for the sovereignty and neutrality of the territory between the Prut and the Dniester. Or we give up the EU. However, I do not think that this would stop Russia from aggressing itself if it enters Ukraine with war. We have too little time to organize the reunion with Romania, the only solution that could involve foreign forces in defending the Republic of Moldova.
Ion Costaș, former Minister of Defense
Will Russia attack Ukraine and what is the risk of Moldova? No one knows what’s in Putin’s head. Ukraine risks a lot. Moldova is also at risk. And not just them, because Putin’s intention is to rebuild the USSR. In fact, Russia has made several attempts over the years in Georgia, in the Transnistrian region, in Ukraine… The risk for us and the sea, because the Russian army is already in the Republic of Moldova. The ammunition from Cobasna would equip an entire military corps of about 20,000 soldiers. It is also dangerous for Ukraine, which can be attacked from the Transnistrian region, but also for the Republic of Moldova. In half an hour, troops from the Transnistrian region can be in Chisinau. But I do not think that a total war will start in Ukraine, because in today’s conditions such a war is dangerous even for Russia.
Angela Grămadă, an expert in the ex-Soviet space
We must avoid putting the issue in such rigid terms, namely that Russia will attack Ukraine. There is a process of negotiating both the conflict in Ukraine and the diplomatic conflict between the US and NATO, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other. It is now important to focus on this scenario, in which diplomas and officials manage to defuse the situation. What is the risk of the Republic of Moldova? It is even more likely to be included in the disinformation mechanism regarding the conflict in Ukraine. We have enough space for this to happen: from the Transnistrian region to the compact populated areas of national minorities. It could also worsen the energy situation because gas supplies through Ukraine could be affected. And without the conflict in Ukraine, Moldovan consumers are affected when Russia’s interests or demands. Exports of Moldovan products to the Russian market could be affected. The solution is good governance with all that it means, namely the resilience of public institutions and the preparation of companies, as well as informing external partners about these risks so that they can receive the necessary assistance in case the situation escalates.
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