Battle of Amsterdam: four parties can become the biggest
I&O Research is a January representative poll among 980 Amsterdammers aged 13 to 24 January, commissioned by GroenLinks Amsterdam. This shows that four parties have a chance of becoming the largest in March. GroenLinks and D66 percent profit between 15 and 16 and therefore have the best papers. However, the confidence intervals overlap (almost in the case of GroenLinks) with PvdA and VVD, which also means that these parties also have a chance of becoming the largest. Given that the poll was conducted almost two months before the election, the battle for first place is completely open.
Newcomers Volt (8%) and JA21 (4%) seem to be doing well. BIJ1 is also likely to pick up more than in 2018 (from 1.9 to 7.3 percent). Parties are clearly losing ten percentage points compared to the previous municipal councils are GroenLinks (-4.6 percentage points), CDA (-2.8 percentage points), SP (-2.6 percentage points), FvD (-1.7 percentage points). ) and the Party for the Elderly (1 percentage point).
Why vote for their preferred party?
Why do people vote for GroenLinks?
People who now plan to vote for GroenLinks already did so in 2018. Why is she voting GL? Most people mention the climate, sustainability, making the city car-free, green, etc. The social side of the policy is also being strengthened and a few include Femke Halsema, as mayor.
GroenLinks in favor – compared to 2018 – mainly votes for D66, PvdA, Volt, PvdD and BIJ1. Why are these people no longer on GroenLinks, but on these parties?
Why do people vote for D66?
Amsterdammers who want to vote for 66 often say that it is nice that it is an equal party in the middle, a party as a counterweight to the more radical GroenLinks of SP. Matters such as education and sustainability are also mentioned. Relatively often linked to national politics, Sigrid Kaag is sometimes quoted. Local leaders are not mentioned.
Labor Party
PvdA voters often mention the political problems: poverty alleviation, healthcare, jobs, etc. Alderman Marjolein Moor is very often mentioned as an appealing politician. Voters who switch from GL to the PvdA often find GL too rigorous or too focused on the details. And there are many attacks that say: PvdA and GroenLinks are on the same page, they are already working together, it doesn’t matter much.
VVD
The VVD voter is also quite loyal, most Amsterdammers who have now joined the VVD in 2018 also did that. Why do men vote VVD? Because of liberalism, entrepreneurship and the way the VVD (Mark Rutte) leads the country. It is also often said: to offer the left-wing government a right-wing counterweight. Local leaders of the VVD are not mentioned.
PvdD
Voters who opt for the PvdD are concerned with nature, greenery and, of course, animal welfare. Many of those interested are enamored with GL as a GroenLinks has become too right-wing.
AT1
BIJ1 steals transactions from all kinds of left-wing parties, especially GroenLinks. The party also receives support from people who are not attuned to its lack in 2018. Voters feel for BIJ1 because of their progressive ideas regarding diversity and equality. They think that other (left-progressive) parties are not doing enough of this.
Volt
Volt mainly gets purchases from D66 and GroenLinks. An ex-D66 voter agreed his transition as follows: “D66 is getting into political games too much”. Ex-GroenLefters mainly criticize the policy pursued in Amsterdam. Volt voters praise convention the innovative character of the party. In addition, men are enthusiastic about the European course and the focus on young people.
YES21
JA21 mainly purchases that still opt for FvD or VVD in 2018. This group sees JA21 as a right-wing party that can counterbalance left-wing parties that are confirmed in Amsterdam. Former VVD voters think that this party has moved too much to the left. Ex-FvD members believe that their previous preferred party has become too radical.
Research accountability
This survey took place from Thursday 13 to Monday 24 January.
A total of 980 Amsterdammers aged 18 years older participated in this study. The largest part comes from the I&O Research Panel (570), a smaller part from PanelClix (309) and Dynata (101). The research is being carried out on behalf of GroenLinks. This is the participants who were not told to avoid selective outlay.
Weighting and margins
The research results have been weighted on gender, age, education level and voting behavior in the elections to the House of Representatives in March 2021. The weighting is carried out in accordance with the guidelines of the Gold Standard. This is the representative for the electoral law of Amsterdam residents (18+), with regard to these background characteristics.
Research involves a confidence interval and margins of inaccuracy. In this study we assume a reliability of 95 percent. With a question of n=1000 and a result of 50 percent, there is a margin of error of minus 3.1 percent.