Increasing pressure on the expansion of offshore wind and new cables in the North Sea
Today, there are 26 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind in operation in Europe, which covers 3 percent of power consumption. The North Sea region is clearly the largest, with five countries having the vast majority of capacity – the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark.
The industry is at the beginning of a long period of strong growth, data from the industry organization Wind Europe and other sources show.
By 2040, offshore wind could be the EU’s largest source of electricity and cover around 20 percent of consumption, according to an analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In the coming years, an increased number of projects will be connected to the power grid, according to forecasts from Wind Europe (see Figure 1). Over the next four years, around 25 GW of new offshore wind power will come on the grid, ie about double the current total capacity. Most of this will come in the North Sea.
The power production from offshore wind depends, among other things, on the size of the turbines and local wind conditions. In 2020, as a rule of thumb, Wind Europe expects 1 GW of newly installed offshore wind to produce around 4 TWh of electricity. 25 GW of new offshore wind by 2025 will thus supply around 100 TWh of power to the northern European system – probably more because the turbines are becoming larger and more efficient. For comparison has Norway’s power consumption in recent years has been 133 TWh a year on average.
The UK is the largest offshore wind today with 11 GW capacity. Forecasts for the rest of the 2020s suggest that the British will retain the leadership role, but more countries will emerge in the second half of the decade.
In 2022, 5.1 GW of new offshore wind capacity is expected, which will give around 20 TWh of new production. Three major UK projects account for the bulk. In 2023, large projects in the Netherlands and Germany, as well as the first major French projects, will be operational.
Development in Europe will pick up speed from 2024. For the period 2026–30, Wind Europe expects an average of 11.4 GW per year. Thus, the total capacity will more than double again in the period compared to the expected level in 2025.
Turning to Wind Europe’s assumptions, there will be at least 100 GW of offshore wind in production by 2030. With a conservative estimate, this equates to around 400 TWh of electricity production.
From 2025, there will also be more projects in the Baltic Sea, the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Irish Sea.
An offshore wind ten years to realize when one counts on everyone a step around in a project with a license and building.
Storm of offshore wind applications in Sweden
The background for the dynamics in the offshore wind market is the energy transition with ever-increasing demands for decarbonisation of the economy. Electrification of new sectors will increase power demand. Low-emission technology such as wind power must replace fossil power that is falling away, and I must also cover more power.
Sweden is an example: The Swedish government’s planning for a possible doubling of electricity consumption by 2045.
One of the best illustrations of the strengthened interest in expanding offshore wind in the North Sea region – and the Baltic Sea – is the application that commercial actors send to Svenska Kraftnät (equivalent to Statnett in Norway).
Sweden has a decentralized model where the players themselves select areas where they want to establish wind farms. As of 1 September 2021, Svenska Kraftnät had received project applications for a total of 116 GW – an enormous volume. Most of the application has come in the last year. In comparison, Sweden today has a total of 41 GW of installed power in the entire power system, of which 11 GW is wind power, mostly land-based.
The decentralized models allow several players to study wind farms in the same area. It contributes to the large volume. In a scenario work published in 2021, Svenska Kraftnät has assessed how much I have found that they believe will actually be expanded. In two scenarios different offshore wind capacities from 3.5 to 8.5 GW in 2035 and 10.1-28.5 GW in 2045.
“Many factors affect how much is being developed. The projects must be profitable, they must get permission, the power systems must be able to receive the effect, etc. I would think that our scenarios are quite good based on what we know today, so I guess that in 2045 we have approx. 10-30 GW production from offshore wind in Sweden, »writes head of power system Daniel Gustafsson in Svenska Kraftnät in an e-mail to Energi og Klima.
Most applications apply to areas in southern Sweden and the Bothnian Sea. The project «Vidar», which Zephyr Vind wants to establish north of the Skagerrak up to Norwegian waters, is an example of a project that is in an early stage. The Norwegian Environment Agency is now implementing one open consultation about this project, which is large with a capacity of 1.4 GW distributed over 91 turbines.
Sweden will also increase the speed of the offshore window by giving Svenska Kraftnät more responsibility for building the transmission network at sea. Today, the developers themselves have to pay for the entire connection to the power grid. In the future, Svenska Kraftnät will build networks for selected points in sea areas, which several players can connect to. This will reduce the cost for builders
The hybrid is coming
The offshore wind investment in Northern Europe will also connect the power systems ends.
Several projects are planning with cables to another country, called hybrid projects. Today, the Kriegers Flak project in the Baltic Sea is in operation with cables to Denmark and Germany, while a number of projects are planned or discussed (see Figure 4).
Denmark has come the furthest in the development of the concept of energy islands, which will serve as a hub for surrounding offshore wind farms. From the island, the power is distributed by cables to several countries. In the long term, plants can be expanded with technology for storage of power and production of, for example, green hydrogen.
The energy island in the North Sea will be located 80 km from the mainland and be connected to a 3 GW offshore wind farm. The island can come in operation in 2033, according to preliminary plans. Offshore wind capacity can later be increased to 10 GW. In addition, it is planning an energy on Bornholm with 2 GW of offshore wind.
Denmark has entered into political agreements with Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium to settle exports of electricity from the energy islands. The agreements are published on the websites of Energinet (equivalent to Statnett).
The same countries are themselves working on energy island projects. Germany will build a plant at Heligoland. Belgium to keep up with his first project and 2028-29.
Hybrid projects are a highly topical and difficult issue for the Norwegian government. Her uh governing parties disagree: The Center Party is clearly going against a hybrid connection, while the Labor Party has opened up for it.
Most players who want to expand the offshore wind farm in Sørlige Nordsjø II believe that it must be linked to one or more other countries in order to become profitable. The state network has begun planning for such a network connection, but has not said which country or countries should be connected to.