Three reasons why Kazakhstan is very important to Russia
In early January, the most serious pogroms and street riots in the country’s entire post-Soviet history took place in several cities of Kazakhstan. It starts on January 2 with local economic protests due to a sharp rise in the price of gas motor fuel; by January 4, the riots turned into the stage of street shootings between armed bandits and law enforcement agencies. On January 5-6, in Alma-Ata and other cities in the south of Kazakhstan, the buildings of the authorities were seized, looted and burned, shopping centers, banks, shops and the airport of Almaty were destroyed. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev first dismissed the government, removed President Nursultan Nazarbayev from the post of the Security Council and took this post himself, declared a state of emergency in the country and finally turned to the CSTO for military assistance. The CSTO sent a peacekeeping contingent to Kazakhstan, the core of which was made up of the elite units of the Russian Airborne Forces. On January 7, Tokayev said that constitutional order was restored in all regions. But the elimination of armed gangs is still ongoing.
Experts believe that Russia has agreed to the introduction of troops into a neighboring country.
At the beginning of 2021, according to the statistics committee of the Ministry of National Economy, almost 3.5 million Russians lived in, which was 18.4% of the country’s population. Basically, the Russian population is concentrated in the north, in Pavlodar, Kostanay and North Kazakhstan regions.
The share of the Russian population in Kazakhstan is declining, including due to emigration. Since the collapse of the USSR, the number of Russians in the republic has dropped by half. There are mainly older people in the country, the share of the Russian population is no more than 15%. Russian is the second language in Kazakhstan in terms of native speakers after Kazakh. It is not state-owned, but, according to Art. 7 constitutions of the country, Russian is officially used on a par with Kazakh in local government and state organizations. The Kazakh language uses a script based on the Cyrillic alphabet, but in 2017, President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed a law according to which Kazakh must be translated into the Latin alphabet by 2025. According to the 2009 census, 94% of people understand oral Russian in Kazakhstan. while oral Kazakh speech is only 74%. 84% of Kazakhstanis were fluent in Russian, and only 62% in Kazakh.
The situation of Russian and Russian-speaking citizens of Kazakhstan in 2021 was overshadowed by the activities of the so-called language patrols. Nationalist Kazakhs walked around public institutions and in an aggressive manner forced people in Kazakh, filming everything on video.
It is incorrect to talk about a systematic policy of “clamping” the Russian language by the authorities of Kazakhstan, explains Ivan Safranchuk, the Center for Eurasian Studies at MGIMO. According to him, in large cities like Alma-Ata, the Russian-speaking environment is still large, and the growth of the non-Russian-speaking population in small towns and villages is a completely natural process. Another thing is that there is an increase in the number of resonant incidents like language patrols and other ugly excesses in relation to Russian-speaking Kazakhstanis, the expert notes. Such cases cannot be attributed to the systemic actions of the Kazakh government, but the negative dynamics is still growing, sums up Safranchuk.
If Russia and the CSTO had not intervened in the situation in Kazakhstan, the situation for the entire country and for the Russian population, including, would develop according to a negative scenario, says Ivan Konovalov, director of the Center for Strategic Conjuncture. Although the country’s leadership took decisive measures, the Kazakhstani security forces did not act very actively, the appearance of Russian troops gave them a name, Ter on. Without Russia and the CSTO, taking into account the protesters’ weapons and the appearance in their ranks of well-trained people from abroad, the crisis would have developed across the country, a wave of pogroms would have swept, the expert said.
Space and defense
In 2021, 14 of 25 Russian space launch vehicles were launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome, which Russia leases from Kazakhstan. Although the load on Baikonur is inconsistent (for example, it accounted for seven of 17 Russian rocket launches in 2020), it remains Russia’s main launch site. According to Andrei Ionin, vice-president of the Academy of Cosmonautics, launch sites for Soyuz rockets remain at Baikonur, and all their manned launches are used from there. In addition, heavy launch vehicles “Proton” are launched from the cosmodrome, but it is announced that their operation will end in 2024, the expert continues. They are to be replaced from 2025 by the Angara rocket, the launch pad for which is being built on Vostochny. It is advisable to launch these rockets not from the site in Plesetsk, but from Vostochny, since this will allow a large payload to be put into orbit, says Ionin.
Therefore, if something happened to the Baikonur cosmodrome, its functioning ceased, extremely heavy damage was inflicted, but, fortunately, we can assume that the threat of this has passed thanks to the introduction of the CSTO troops, the expert continues. At the same time, it is not yet possible to say unequivocally when the infrastructure for launching manned spacecraft will be ready on Vostochny, Ionin noted.
The Russian Armed Forces operate in Kazakhstan near Lake Balkhash a Dnepr-type missile attack warning system radar, as well as measuring infrastructure, which is necessary for testing an anti-missile defense (ABM) system and new types of combat equipment for Strategic Missile Forces intercontinental ballistic missiles. retired Mikhail Khodarenok. The radar is no longer really needed – a network of such new-generation radars has been deployed in Russia, but the range for missile defense and Strategic Missile Forces is of critical military importance, the expert continues. Its replacement on the territory of Russia is necessary, he believes. According to a source close to the Ministry of Defense, a place in Russia was already chosen several years ago to replace facilities on Balkhash, but their construction will take a long time.
Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the EAEU Customs Union – key economic communities with participation in the post-Soviet space. Exports from the Russian Federation to Kazakhstan in January – October 2021, according to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, amounted to $ 14.74 billion, which is higher than for the entire dock 2019 ($ 14.4 billion). Key export goods are ferrous metals ($ 1.31 billion in 10 months of 2021), cars and their parts ($ 1.04 billion) and plastics ($ 782 million). Imports from Kazakhstan in January-October 2021 are significantly less – $ 5.77 billion, key products are ferrous metals ($ 1.52 billion), iron ore ($ 1.07 billion) and non-ferrous metal ores ($ 574 million) …
In addition, the infrastructure of the republic still controls the system with the Russian economy. Through the territory of Kazakhstan, the largest railway in Russia is the Transsib. The road crosses the northernmost of the regions of the republic – North Kazakhstan and passes through the regional center Petropavlovsk. This section of the Transsib is considered part of the South Ural Railway Russian Railways in the status of a branch of the Russian monopoly in Kazakhstan. Recall that due to the severance of economic ties with Ukraine after the return of Crimea to Russia in 2014, it was necessary to significantly rebuild the transport arteries in the border areas. In particular, it was necessary to continue the 137 km long railway bypass of Ukraine worth 55 billion rubles. and build the Crimean bridge across the Kerch Strait (228 billion rubles).
Russian companies also own stakes in a number of projects in Kazakhstan. For Rosatom, mining in the republic is a source of cheap uranium;Lukoil“AND”Rosneft“, A large coal asset in the north of the country – the Bogatyr-Komir open-pit mine – belongs to Rusal (“Vedomosti»They wrote in detail about these assets on January 5). At the same time, Russian investors intended to expand their presence in Kazakhstan. For example, in 2022, it is planned to introduce new technologies at the Bogatyr open-pit mine, after which the capacity of Bogatyr-Komir will increase from 42 million to 50 million tons per year. The main consumers of the company’s coal are several thermal power plants in Kazakhstan, as well as Reftinskaya GRES in Russia. Coal production in 2020 amounted to 43.3 million tons, in 2021 it was planned to produce 42 million tons.
As of December 1, 2020, Kazakhstan’s Sberbank ranked second (after Halyk Bank) in terms of assets among banks in Kazakhstan (3.2 trillion tenge, or 540 billion rubles), according to the Sberbank website. For comparison: the Russian Russian Sberbank exceeds 36.7 trillion rubles. The bank’s branch network in Kazakhstan consists of 110 structural divisions, 17 of which are branches. The central office is located in Almaty.
At the same time, even a relatively short active phase of the pogroms in Kazakhstan led to a halt in economic activity: the operation of airports, bank branches, shopping centers, warehouses, etc. was stopped. Large-scale industry with the participation of Russian investors was a disturbance to reduce the extent. A representative of Kazatomprom (Rosatom’s partner in uranium assets) told Bloomberg that work at the enterprise did not stop.
Companies in Kazakhstan’s oil sector have been much less affected by the strikes than other sectors, so it is premature to speak of a significant decline in productivity, says Igor Yushkov, a leading national energy security analyst. In his opinion, there were no protests on the oil market, these special ones did not become for traders. Anton Usov, head of KPMG’s practice for working with the oil and gas industry in Russia and the CIS, also believes that the unrest will not lead to a reduction in Kazakhstan’s exploitation, and their “impact on the oil sector will be minimal.”
However, logistics services involving airlines were temporarily interrupted, and a number of companies halted operations (see also article on page 7). The Russian broker “Freedom Finance”, starting its activity in Kazakhstan, sent almost all employees in Kazakhstan to remote locations, closed all branches and branches, collected all valuables and transported the most expensive goods to warehouses, Timur Turlov, the founder of the company, pointed out on his Instagram.
Alexander Volobuev and Vladimir Stepanov (Dzaguto) also took part in the preparation of the material