As a tornado, the omicron we watch blindly sweeps through Hungary
Variant tracking ?! We are just where we were at the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic. We have learned nothing from the 4 waves that have taken place so far. The variants should be followed to get to know the situation
said an epidemiologist to Portfolio, who is closely monitoring what has been happening since the Covid explosion in Hungary. According to him, the aim of the Hungarian epidemic was not to find the omkron at all, nor, consequently, to examine how quickly it would displace the previously dominant delta variant.
Omicron has been identified in Hungary by a private laboratory, Neumann Labs, which has already detected this variant in a large number of samples. Meanwhile, the National Center for Public Health (NNK) has so far been able to demonstrate only a fraction of what Neumann has done. NNK puts the proportion of omicrons at 1 %1, then Gábor Vattay is a physicist and epidemic modeler at more than 40% nationwide, and 70% in Budapest. Neumann Labs already detects omicron in nearly 80% of the samples. That is, the NNK seems to be well underestimating the omicron. This is not surprising, as there is no real variance tracking on the part of the Hungarian epidemic.
The delta variant is not really typical anymore. Omikron can spread
– the experience and conclusions of the GP of the Portfolio, which he drew on the basis of symptoms compared to the delta. He thinks the omicron variant is spreading very fast now, there are a lot of people going to see doctors. The situation is aggravated by the arrival of those with colds and flu-like symptoms who are very difficult to distinguish from those with omicrons because the symptoms are similar.
Doctors say you can get omicron with up to two or three vaccinations, but the symptoms will certainly be mild. In other words, who is vaccinated against the coronavirus or not is not affected by whether it is omicron or who is influenza. However, it is unanimous, and research confirms that taking the 3rd vaccine increases protection.
coronavirus and influenza can be caught at the same time. “It has been emphasized so far that the two viruses can be caught at the same time, and in this case the disease may be more severe and the scientist may have a higher chance of death,” said Miklós Nyíri, CEO of Neumann Labs.
“Luckily, this hasn’t happened so far, but it’s certain that health and diagnostic care needs to be prepared for double-infection,” he added. They currently have 4-5 flu cases a day, but the flu epidemic has not yet begun and then the omicron is spreading rapidly.
However, no one understands how NNK brought out that omicron causes only 11% of coronavirus cases. Everyone is making this higher, and the proportion of omicrons is constantly increasing, the epidemic curve has turned in recent days, and the 5th wave in Hungary has started. If the proportion of omicrons were as low as the NNK says, the epidemic curve would not have turned so abruptly.
However, the turnaround is caused by the rapidly spreading omicron variant, which is almost certain to become dominant these days.
This week, the number of coronavirus cases is rising very fast. Such a rate of spread cannot be explained by an 11% share, and Ilyen trend is only characteristic of countries where, based on the sequencing data of that country, it takes over the omicron at the delta site. It is a great pity that Hungary does not follow this variant, as this is how decision-makers do not know about omicron.
According to Thursday’s report, nearly 6,500 infected people have already been registered in Hungary in one day, which means a very rapid increase compared to the number of cases close to 2,000 measured at the end of last year. The next few days are expected to bring a very rapid increase in the number of cases. Experts say the number of cases will surely reach the top 4 soon, which could still be fired like a missile.
The only thing is how many cases Hungary can detect, as the country has already hit the limit of test capacities several times in the previous waves.
And in the case of the rapidly spreading omicron, it is guaranteed that the testing limit will be reached soon if the country does not change much in the protocol for ordering tests and test capacity (eg setting up test points for an international sample, free tests for anyone).
If Hungary followed the omicron exactly, sequenced it, which the virologist cited in the article would be optimal, and tested it extensively, we would know exactly what we are up against. Omicron may be important for predicting the workload of hospitals on the one hand, and for measures that may be required due to infection on the other. And it doesn’t matter if the test capacity will be enough, because other therapies and medicines should be used for home healing if someone is infected with omicrons, and if they have a cold or flu.
Omicron wave
The 5th wave of the coronavirus epidemic arrived in Hungary according to all relevant indicators. The next few days will bring a big upswing in case numbers. The only question now is what does this wave bring in the workload of hospitals and the number of victims. Based on international experience, we will see a large number of those infected, as only those who have recently been vaccinated may be strongly protected against omicrons. This variant may even result in significantly fewer fatalities based on international experience, but it is still uncertain. The state of health, the rate at which the variant spreads (controllable), and consequently the level of the health care workload (and thus the quality of patient care) and the speed with which the load rises (many people get sick at the same time) will determine how severe the wave will be. Therefore, it is still uncertain how the situation in Hungary will develop. Therefore, it would be most important for the country / epidemic to know everything about the barriers, spread and morbidity of omicron in Hungary – but there is little official information about it yet.
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