How the fourth wave was underestimated in Bavaria
The number of intensive care Covid-19 patients in Bavaria has risen just as quickly since mid-October as in Austria. Since the beginning of November, the number of Covid intensive care patients in Bavaria per 100,000 inhabitants has even been higher than that in Austria, with a similar vaccination rate and age structure.
What distinguishes Bavaria and Austria: In Austria, a three-week lockdown has been in effect since November 22, which includes all areas of public life. In Bavaria, the regulations have gradually been tightened, for example through 2G regulations in the catering and body-friendly services, and Christmas markets have been canceled. Lockdowns are only intended for specific corona hotspots with an incidence over 1000.
7-day incidences underestimate pandemic events
The BR data analysis also shows that the 7-day incidence, including the number of new infections reported, increased less sharply in Bavaria than in Austria. Since the beginning of the fourth wave, the incidence values in Bavaria have been around a third below those in Austria.
Lower 7-day incidences, but the same number of Covid patients in the intensive care units: Was the actual pandemic in Bavaria systematically underestimated? Epidemiologist Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology thinks this is possible: “The numbers speak very much that the incidences in Bavaria are more under-recorded than in Austria.”