Most cars sold in Sweden are now plug-in EV cars – over 54% in November
Sweden, the largest car market in the Nordic region, saw plug-in electric vehicles take a share of 54.3% in November, an increase from 38.7% compared with the previous year. Diesels remained dormant and saw its fourth month in a row with a share of 15%. The total car market saw just over 21,000 new registrations in November, a decrease of almost 30% from pre-pandemic seasonal norms. Sweden’s most popular full car in November was the Volkswagen ID.4.
November’s combined plug-in results of 54.3% included 26.0% full-battery electricity (BEV) and 28.3% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), an even share of operations that have continued over the past 6 months.
The cumulative share of plug-ins for 2021 is now 43.4% (up from 29.6% on an annual basis). In a rapidly changing transition, recent data provide a better indication of consumer sentiment on the ground; Sweden’s subsequent 3-month plug-in share is now 53.1% up from 36.4% on an annual basis.
All plug-free drivelines combined (diesel, petrol, HEV and other fuels) saw the volume decrease from 16,207 sales in November 2020 to just 9,628 last month, a year-on-year decrease of over 40%.
At this point, Sweden’s path for the transition to plugins is about 2 years behind the leader, Norway. Like the latter, we can expect Sweden to move quickly towards over 90% of plugins, probably before the end of 2023. In fact, since BEV is rapidly increasing in relative value compared to the older technology, Sweden’s journey to over 90% can be even faster than Norway was.
Sweden’s favorite BEV
In November, Volkswagen ID.4 took the top position for BEV sales and maintained the position it has held in recent months.
The Nissan Leaf and Polestar 2 performed stronger than usual in November, and the MG ZS had a weaker performance due to a lack of incoming offerings. Kia EV6 is already doing well, almost matching the older and smaller siblings Kia Niro, during its first month with volume supply. Its continued success will depend on available supply volumes (which will always follow demand).
Similarly, even though it had a lower volume, the new Volvo C40 proved to be quite popular during its first month of volume deliveries in its home country.
The Volkswagen Group continues to dominate Sweden’s BEV market during the last quarter, with 5 models in the top 20 (and Porsche Taycan just missed, in 22nd place), and 3 in the top 10:
VW Group had a total of 4,870 sales during the last 3 months, approximately 27.8% of Sweden’s BEV market. Hyundai-Kia (2,712 units and 15.1%) and Tesla (2,314 units and 12.9%) are in place # 2 and # 3 respectively. All are currently limited in supply, along with BEV cars from many other manufacturers, and it’s someone’s guess which BEV cars would sell the most without this restriction.
Sight
With Sweden having seen the plugin share over 50% for each of the last 3 months, and with the knowledge that December is historically the highest month each year, what share can we expect to see?
I think 60% or higher is a realistic expectation for December. Remember that December last year saw a jump to almost 50% from the high 30s in the immediately preceding months.
Part of this will depend on how car manufacturers selling in Europe cope with their emissions from the fleet. The 2021 emission targets are stricter than 2020 in this respect, but last year some car manufacturers (looking at you VW) left the matter a little late and self-registered many BEV cars in December to bring down their average emissions in the fleet. The same last-minute compliance rush may not occur (or not to the same extent) in 2021.
Even without such factors, consumer preferences (supported by continued government incentives) are now driving rapidly rising plug-in shares, so December will still see a decent step up. What are your predictions? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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