an increasingly “alarming” third quarter of 2021
The trends for the first half of the year already confirmed a worrying down cycle of the new real estate market in Toulouse from 2019. At issue: the scarcity of land and the slowdown in the number of projects since 2017. But this cycle has been reinforced by the multiple confinements, the election year and the large block sale.
This Monday November 15, 2021, Jean-Philippe Jarno, president of ObserveR in Toulouse, unveiled the numbers of 3e quarter 2021. The latter confirm the trend with a “shrinking market, where each quarter is worse than the last “, he admits. And this time,” the 3e quarter is worse“, he adds with a serious air.
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An increasingly alarming third quarter in the Toulouse urban area
“The machine is broken,” admits the president of the Observer. According to the figures he reveals, the number of sales continued to tumble from quarter to quarter in the Toulouse urban area. He thus went from 1,500 to 1uh quarter, to 900 in the second, then 700 for the 3e trimester. That represents a total of only 3,200 dwellings for the three quarters combined.
“We have to go back to 2008-2009 with the financial crisis to return to such low levels”, explains the president. To this, he adds that if the market remains responsive, the sales volume is low. Retail sales were in fact maintained at 1uh and 2e quarter around 1,400, but in the 3e quarter they dropped to 1,000 . This represents a cumulative total of nearly 4,000 sales, a low level similar to 2014 (excluding 2020).
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In addition, on the scale of the city of Toulouse, the “market is practically at a standstill”, according to him. This quarter the numbers are plummeting to just 300 for sale in the city. This is a level “comparable, or even lower, to that of the 2e quarter of 2020 during containment (350 sales) “, details the president. retail sales also drop sharply and find the volume of 3e quarter 2020 with only 450 sales.
A situation that reduces the stock and causes prices to explode
This situation can be explained by various factors: firstly, the lack of raw materials. With the health crisis, the shortage of materials such as wood or aluminum has “a two-fold increase in their cost,” adds the president. This entails de facto an increase in construction costs, market prices and therefore a reduced supply. What could be likened to “the Nice syndrome”, according to the president. Namely, “a city with high potential, but where people have had difficulty finding accommodation, for lack of offers, if not very expensive,” he adds.
Indeed, the level of stock continues to decline with less than 2,100 homes for sale. In one year he was reduced by more than 1,100 housing units compared to 3e quarter of 2020, “bordering on a situation of shortage while the market is very demanding”, deplores Jean-Philippe Jarno. As a result, the price increase per m2 is very strong. These last bits more than 4,000 euros over the first three quarters of 2021 (collective – free full VAT – excluding parking). What makes a 3% increase in just a year.
“The damage is done for at least two years”
If the president of course hopes that the figures go up in the right direction, he concedes that this recovery will not be “before the end of 2023“.” The damage is done for at least two years “, he adds. He welcomes the awareness of elected officials facing the cancellation of the local inter-communal habitat urban plan (PLUiH).
Toulouse Métropole effectively established in mid-October the “metropolitan housing pact”, through which it re-expressed the ambition to build 7,000 homes per year. This pact has a production objective equal to that of the PLUiH. Jean-Philippe Jarno thus hopes “that each elected representative will take his part in relaunching the construction effort”. Because if the majority “of indicators are at their lowest this quarter, the fall continues to increase at 4e trimester“, he finished, worried.