Moscow fools around with Brussels – Knack magazines on PC
The European Union was so successful that it referred to a European empire. A zone of influence formed around the Union, a ring of countries that runs from the south of the Mediterranean through the Middle East and the Black Sea to Belarus. But on that whole front, Europe is now being contested in an unprecedented way. That has little to do with the favor of the Union. In almost the entire region, Europe remains the chosen partner and a dream destination for migrants. No, the main explanation is not the crumbling attraction, but the limitation of Europe’s soft and economic power.
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The European Union was so successful that it referred to a European empire. A zone of influence formed around the Union, a ring of countries that runs from the south of the Mediterranean through the Middle East and the Black Sea to Belarus. But on that whole front, Europe is now being contested in an unprecedented way. That has little to do with the favor of the Union. In almost the entire region, Europe remains the chosen partner and a dream destination for migrants. No, the main explanation is not the crumbling attraction, but the limitation of Europe’s soft and economic power. Even that has always been the case. Just think of the Yugoslavia wars in the 1990s. Without US military retaliation and without complacency from Russia, Serbia could do its thing with impunity. Ditto during the color revolutions, such as the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. The Americans stoked the revolutionary fire – the Russians were still a little while. The Ukrainians were primarily concerned with NATO and US security guarantees, followed by the European Union. In short, American dominance and Russian restraint spared Europe. It spoke of expensive principles, but was toothless when it came to safety. Moreover, it often quickly swallowed those principles when it could call on the services of dictators. Just think of the Arab Spring. An entire region flirted with democracy and screamed for human rights. The European Union was barely visible anywhere. Spring turned out to be a disillusionment. Today, the European Union’s reputation stands in the area of the Balkans. After the Yugoslavia war, the EU had developed into the pre-eminent peacekeeper: but also with a judge with soldiers, but also with a judge with soldiers, combined and development advisers, a whole bureaucracy settled there. The EU became the patroness of the Balkans, called the leaders of the region around the table and offered money and membership in return for moderate politics. One hundred and thirty ministerial issuances have been made since the late 1990s, and billions in aid have been disbursed. That pact is now being challenged in every possible way. Serbia is pursuing an ever assertive policy and has re-developed into a strong power. The Kosovars, for their part, have become more adamant about their independence. One incident now follows another between Pristina and Belgrade. Serbia is also the main ally of the Republika Srpska, which is now more than ever pushing for the independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Three factors are at the root of the difficulties. To begin with, the old conflicts have never been fully resolved. When I traveled through the years of the Balkans and other Balkan countries for several years, tens of thousands were still hidden. Russia is also on the offensive. The Russian mines the work of the European Special Envoy, equip under the nationalism of the Serbia and see the Euratic sphere of influence. Moreover, the American presence is much less forced and that other regional players are introduced to new ones: Russia, for example, but also Turkey. The Russians are meant to start a war in the Balkans, but they are more than happy to disguise the West, as recently in the UN Security Council when they forced the Western countries into a mild resolution on the Republika Srpska – or simply the refusal to recognize the European Special Envoy. Russia also, elders, wants to increase its bargaining margins vis-à-vis the West by showing that it can destabilize. It wants recognition in Western capitals that it is an inescapable player – and not just by threatening to turn off the natural gas tap. Europe has to endure it all. It has hardly any influence on Moscow, and the Russians also get along well with China as far as the Balkans are concerned. The Kremlin is more likely to consult Turkey than Brussels. A new chapter begins in Balkan politics, and in that chapter the European Union is a lot less prominent.