The figures for the Covid-19 epidemic in Belgium continue to increase rapidly on Tuesday, October 26, while a Concertation Committee must decide on possible measures for what is now known to be called “the fourth wave “.
A wave where, as in previous ones, contaminations are increasing exponentially, followed by admissions but with one important difference: in hospitals is not yet worrying.
However, it could become if these increases continue to accelerate.
Or, the rate of increase in contamination is always higher: it was 65% on Saturday, the day on which the latest figures were communicated, it is now 75%. But rather than what we have observed for two weeks, if we take the last consolidated days, the figure is very important (7,056 cases in one day, a record since November 2020), but the rate of increase remains around 70% compared to the same day of the previous week. This does not mean that the numbers will go down but they might stop increasing faster.
And with regard to admissions, we even went from an increase in the average of 67% on Saturday to 56% on Tuesday. There too, we remain in high figures, with 123 admissions recorded on Monday (and which corresponds to Sunday’s entries), but compared to the previous Sunday, it remains an increase of 50%.
The situation remains worrying, with a positivity rate that continues to soar, at 8.5%, or 2% more in a week, a sign that the increase in cases is not due to those of the tests, to the the contrary: the situation is undoubtedly underestimated. Liege, for example, where the incidence was already high, one in 8 tests is positive (12.6%).
But it is in Limburg (+ 180%) and West Flanders (+ 112%) that the increases in cases remain the most spectacular.
On the other hand, occupations of intensive care beds remain limited: it is rather in Brussels, where 23% of beds available (61 out of 269) are busy, that one is attentive to the evolution. Across the country, the 264 currently occupied beds remain manageable, but this number is to be expected to swell further in the coming days and weeks. At what level is the question that all get so far.
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The consolidated figures of the Sciensano table
Note: these figures are taken from updated data published by Sciensano in open data and put in table form here.
Cases detected¹ : between 10/16 and 10/22, 5300 new coronavirus infections were detected on average every day. This is an increase of 75% from the previous week.
Testing : between 10/16 and 10/22, an average of 51.267 tests were performed daily, a total up 14% from the previous week.
Admissions : they amount on average to 115 between 10/19 and 10/25. This is an increase of 56% from the previous week.
Hospitalized people² : 1275 patients are currently hospitalized in connection with Covid-19 (+ 39% in one week), including 264 patients treated in care intensified (+ 14%).
Positivity rate³ : based on the test results obtained between 12/10 and 18/10, it is 8.5%, up 2.1% from last week.
Reproduction rate : calculated on the basis of changes in admissions, the Rt of the coronavirus today stands at 1.27. When it is greater than 1, it means that the transmission of the virus is accelerating.
Death : between 10/16 and 10/22, 13.3 people died on average from the virus. Since the start of the epidemic, 25,889 people have died from the coronavirus.
¹ The cases detected are the number of patients for a positive test confirmed the presence of the virus. The date that is considered is the date of the diagnosis, not the test result. Data is considered consolidated after 4 days. The number of cases may depend in part on the testing strategy: if we test more systematically, we also detect more cases.
² Hospitalized patients include patients who have already been hospitalized for another reason and who have tested positive.
³ The positivity rate is the number of tests compared to the number of positive tests carried out. The same person can be tested several times. It also depends on the testing strategy: if we do not test enough, the positivity rate will be higher.