Turkey is now willing to support Finland’s NATO membership but excludes Sweden
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday that his country would consider evaluating Finland’s bid for NATO membership separately from Sweden’s. So far, Turkey has threatened to veto both countries’ bids after a Koran burning in Stockholm angered Ankara.
The Turkish foreign minister told reporters in Ankara that Turkey is ready to assess Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership individually.
Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey can evaluate the Finnish and Swedish NATO applications separately.
Cavusoglu added that such an approach made sense, as one country’s application was more problematic than the other. The Turkish foreign minister’s comments echo President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statement on Sunday, suggesting Finland would have little difficulty joining.
Erdogan also repeated his demand that Stockholm extradite 120 people Turkey considers terrorists.
Erdogan accuses the Swedish government of allowing his country to become a haven for terrorist organizations fighting against Turkey. Swedish officials insist that extradition requirements are a matter for the courts.
Turkish-Swedish relations deteriorated further in January after far-right protesters were allowed to burn a Koran in Stockholm, which angered Ankara. But relations between Finland and Turkey received a boost this month, with Helsinki allowing the sale of specialized steel to Turkey’s defense industry, ending Finland’s military embargo against Ankara over human rights concerns.
Ilhan Uzgel, a political analyst at the Kisa Dalga news portal, says Erdogan is trying to maximize concessions from NATO to allow its expansion, given the upcoming presidential election expected to be held in May.
“It’s not like a strategic decision, but it’s more like leverage that Erdogan needs in domestic politics. But this can be resolved. Under pressure, Erdogan makes concessions, that’s for sure. But he has to get something. He’s learned this over the years that everything can be turned into a bargaining chip. A question of transnationalism that he’s very good at. So he knows how to bargain. I mean, he’s learned that in 20 years [in power]”, Uzgel said.
So far, Finland and Sweden have committed to join NATO together. But earlier this month, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that Helsinki could reconsider that stance if Sweden is permanently blocked from the military alliance.
Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution says Washington’s role could be crucial in ending the impasse.
“The US holds important cards. The question has been whether some of its policy goals can be achieved by actually keeping the relationship relatively frozen until the Turkish election and then considering a reset. What we see is that Turkey is frustrated, feels that it is not getting enough with attention from Washington, says Aydintasbas.
Ankara has many demands from Washington and ongoing disputes. Still, with only a few months to go before the election, which polls show Erdogan is far from certain to win, analysts suggest that Sweden and Finland, along with NATO, are likely to be watching the upcoming election closely.