Why Turkey is still blocking Sweden’s NATO accession
1. What does Turkey want?
It demands that Sweden extradite suspected Kurdish militants and alleged coup plotters wanted by Turkey and stops supporters of Kurdish movements in Sweden who openly show their loyalty. Turkey dropped its opposition to inviting Sweden and Finland to NATO after they agreed to cooperate with Ankara to fight terrorism, quickly deal with pending extradition requests and confirm they would not block arms exports to Turkey. Days later, Turkey made it clear that it would not ratify their membership unless they fulfilled those promises.
2. What happened next?
In December, Sweden’s highest court ruled against the extradition of a man Turkey has accused of being involved in a 2016 coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey called the court’s decision “a very negative development”. In January, tensions flared up again after demonstrators in Stockholm pointed at Erdogan. It was followed by the burning of a translated copy of the Koran near the Turkish embassy, sparking outrage in Turkey and other Muslim nations. Erdogan then announced that Turkey would not support Sweden’s accession to NATO. Sweden has insisted it has done everything it can to respect the June agreement, but Turkey says it has fallen short. Sweden’s laws on freedom of expression make it difficult for the government to stifle public support for Kurdish independence.
3. What is Turkey’s problem with the Kurds?
The Kurds are an Indo-European people, about 30 million strong, and one of the world’s largest ethnic groups without a state of their own. Their homeland is divided between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The PKK has fought Turkish forces on and off since the mid-1980s as it seeks an autonomous region for Kurds in Turkey. Turkey is particularly focused on the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a Kurdish militia in Syria that was instrumental in the defeat of Islamic State there. Turkey views the YPG as a security threat because of its ties to separatist Kurds in Turkey.
4. Why is Sweden involved?
Sweden has long strived to promote human rights and respect for minorities abroad, and the country’s reception of refugees has made it home to as many as 100,000 Kurds. Some are Turkish opposition members wanted by Erdogan’s government. Sweden has tended to align with other European nations in the way it treats Kurdish demands for self-determination and was the first country after Turkey to designate the PKK as a terrorist organization, in 1984. Erdogan has called Sweden a “breeding ground for terrorist organizations”. .”
5. Why does the dispute matter?
Sweden and Finland conduct military exercises with NATO and increasingly share intelligence with it. But they did not join the group earlier for historical reasons. Having Sweden and Finland in the alliance would undoubtedly make it easier to stabilize security in the area around the Baltic Sea and to defend NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These countries are often seen as potential targets for Russian aggression. Including Finland and Sweden would add to NATO two sophisticated, well-equipped militaries whose equipment is already compatible with that used by the alliance. It would double the length of NATO’s border with Russia, which now covers just 6% of Russia’s landmass, and allow the alliance to improve its surveillance of the country’s western flank.
6. What are the chances of a solution?
It’s hard to see a way out of the impasse right now. Erdogan faces presidential and parliamentary elections in May and maintaining a tough stance on Sweden could consolidate his support in nationalist circles. The Nordic countries meet NATO’s criteria and their terrorism legislation and treatment of Kurds is consistent with that of the alliance members. The United States, the most powerful country in the alliance, has repeatedly urged Turkey to ratify its applications.
7. Where does this leave Finland?
In a bandage. Finland’s foreign minister opened the door to possibly decoupling its NATO application from Sweden’s after Erdogan’s latest comments. But joining the alliance without Sweden would potentially risk Finland’s supply routes and NATO’s ability to provide security guarantees. It would also mean that some of the military cooperation that the two counties have developed over the years is rolled back. They are close allies and had always insisted that the process towards NATO accession be coordinated. The official position is still that they would join NATO at the same time.
–With help from Onur Ant and Firat Kozok.
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