Sweden’s accession to NATO was affected by repeated quarrels with Turkey
ANKARA: Sweden’s bid for NATO membership faces a dead end, according to analysts.
A protest by the Swedish-Danish far-right leader Rasmus Paludan in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm has further strained relations.
After the demonstration, where Paludan burned a copy of the Holy Koran, eyes are now focused on potential steps Ankara could take to torpedo NATO’s expansion into the Nordic countries.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned the Koran burning, describing it as an “evil act” and criticized the Swedish government’s decision to allow the protest as “completely unacceptable”.
In Sweden, the move is tolerated within the framework of freedom of expression.
Amid growing diplomatic tension between the two countries, experts believe that Turkiye is unlikely to vote for Sweden’s accession to NATO before the critical domestic elections – both parliamentary and presidential – on May 14.
There is also no guarantee that the next president will enjoy a majority in parliament after elections, which could make ratification even more complicated and further leave the alliance in uncharted waters following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Devlet Bahceli, head of the nationalist MHP party, the ruling government’s main ally in Turkey, vowed that Sweden’s NATO membership would not be approved by parliament.
Following the protest, Ankara postponed the planned visit of Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson on January 27, although the meeting was expected to address Turkey’s objections to Sweden’s joining the alliance.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin condemned the demonstration, describing the attack on sacred values as “modern barbarism”.
Kalin tweeted: “Allowing this act despite all our warnings encourages hate crimes and Islamophobia.”
In early January, he also said that Ankara is not in a position to approve Sweden’s NATO accession until all its concerns are satisfied.
As part of a long-running diplomatic battle, Turkiye initially blocked Sweden’s NATO accession to push Stockholm toward meeting certain political demands, such as the extradition of several people wanted by Turkish authorities on terrorism charges.
After decades of military non-alignment, Sweden applied to join NATO in May and took steps to tighten its anti-terror laws to override the Turkish veto.
It also deported two members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, to Turkiye.
Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum with Turkiye last year in an attempt to overcome Ankara’s objections to their NATO membership.
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson recently said that his country, which insists that the courts have the final say on extraditions, has already fulfilled its part of the memorandum but that Turkiye has additional demands that Sweden cannot meet, including the extradition of 130 people.
According to NATO rules, all 30 members must agree unanimously before a new state can join the alliance.
“Behind the scenes, the actual talks were going on long before the new year. Sweden has made significant progress on all points of the trilateral memorandum signed in June, Paul Levin, head of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies, told Arab News.
“Now, however, the political logic of the campaign season in Turkiye, combined with far-left and far-right groups in Sweden competing to insult the easily offended Turkish president, has thrown the process to the bottom,” he added.
Last week, controversial footage was released by a Kurdish group in Sweden showing a picture of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hanging in Stockholm and people calling him a “dictator”.
Ankara accuses Stockholm of protecting individuals affiliated with the PKK and its allies in northern Syria and Iraq. Sweden has promised to distance itself from all Kurdish groups that Turkiye considers terrorists in order to gain Ankara’s support for its NATO application.
“I suspect that Stockholm will try to cower and avoid exacerbating the situation while continuing to implement the memorandum,” Levin said.
“I don’t expect anything positive from Turkiye about the ratification before the election, but if Erdogan wins, it could take much longer than that,” he added.
Apart from Turkiye, Hungary still has not ratified Sweden’s and Finland’s applications for membership in NATO.
According to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute, along with all other similar provocations in recent times, the latest demonstration will all but bury Sweden’s hopes of joining NATO before the Turkish elections.
“Erdogan has already instrumentalized this accession attempt, while Turkiye has legitimate security concerns regarding Sweden’s lax attitude towards the PKK and its affiliates,” he told Arab News.
Cagaptay said any concessions from Sweden would help Erdogan boost his popularity.
Cagaptay also believes that Erdogan has decided to exploit Sweden’s affiliation with NATO allies to buy tacit political support during his campaign season.
“He knows that NATO allies will dampen any criticism that they have against him during this election process,” he said.
“Until that moment, he will use this accession bid as a kind of sword of Damocles to keep them quiet about his policies during the election campaign,” the director said.
“It takes two to dance the tango. Erdogan, who is running for re-election, has a helping hand both from Sweden’s extreme right and extreme left, who are not at all interested in NATO membership,” said Cagaptay.
Last week, Jimmie Akesson, another far-right leader, this time from the Sweden Democrats, criticized Erdogan, branding him a “dictator”.
Several Arab countries including Saudi Arabia have already condemned the demonstration.
“Saudi Arabia calls for spreading the values of dialogue, tolerance and coexistence, and rejects hatred and extremism,” the Saudi foreign ministry said in a statement.
The Gulf Cooperation Council also condemned the protest.
Sweden’s prime minister described the Koran burning incident in Stockholm as “deeply disrespectful”.
In retaliation, some groups burned the Swedish flag in front of the Swedish consulate in Istanbul.