7th of the ‘2023 Turkish Economy’ seminar was held in Istanbul
The ‘Turkish Economy’ seminar, organized annually by the Economic Research Forum (EAF), was held in Istanbul. The opening speeches of the event were made by TÜSİAD Chairman of the Board Orhan Turan and TÜSİAD Vice Chairman of the Board and Head of the Economy and Finance Roundtable Murat Özyeğin. In the panel moderated by Hande Demirel; Cevdet Akçay, Gizem Öztok Altınsaç, Selva Demiralp, Hakan Kara and Gökhan Şen took part as staff.
“GLOBAL DYNAMICS WILL SHOW IMPACT IN OUR COUNTRY”
Orhan Turan, Chairman of the Board of TUSIAD, who conveyed the expectation of an economic situation in Turkey and the world in 2023 by touching on certain points in his speech, said that he saw what he saw about the perspective:
“The existence of two sub-periods for 2023 draws attention. Continuation of tight monetary policy in the first half of 2023 While recession is predicted in Europe and many developed countries, growth is expected to be very weak in the USA. As of the second half of the year, in parallel with being effective in being affected by the tight monetary policy followed, a growth process will begin again in the world economy, albeit weakly. It is also possible for Turkey that the economic conditions and policy will be different in the first and second half of 2023. First of all, global dynamics also show those at home. Although the financial maturity is not a forecast throughout the year, the fact that the growth in the world economy will accelerate in the second half of the year gives hope for a revival in exports. However, one of the reasons for the need to look at 2023 in two sub-periods in terms of the Turkish economy is the parliamentary and presidential elections. Whatever the outcome of the elections, it is likely that economic conditions and policies will differ between post-election and pre-election. While the global economy was weak before the election and especially many EU operations were on the agenda with recession dynamics, there is no time in Turkey’s economy in which domestic demand-driven growth was supported. In the second half of the year, the relative positive development in the global economy will create a positive environment for the macroeconomic stability and the total scores of the policies that previously carried out political reform in the Turkish economy.
“2022 WILL BE REGISTERED AS THE LOWEST GROWTH OF THE LAST 30 YEARS”
Murat Özyeğin, Vice Chairman of TÜSİAD, said, “Our forum continues its activities with the aim of contributing to the achievement of short-term and long-term economic policies for a sustainable growth environment and permanent development in Turkey. For this purpose, it aims to reflect the views on economic policies with documents such as working report, research note, comprehensive research reports and executive conferences. Among the activities of the EAF, we are happy to hold the Turkish economy seminar, which has become a tradition, face-to-face today, after a long time due to the pandemic. It was used to ensure that this balance provides a more lively and productive discussion environment.
Drawing the skyline that the weak growth performances in the world economy may continue after 2023, Özyeğin said, “We have left behind a very difficult year for both the world economy and the Turkish economy. In addition to the steps to return to normal after Covid, China’s continued zero covid policy, the geopolitical stresses that started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the tightening of monetary policy in many countries in the region, where raw material and energy prices rapidly climbed with very high seasons, caused a rapid decline in growth in the world. “The year 2022 will probably be recorded as the lowest products of the last 30 years after the 2009 crisis and the 2020 pandemic,” he said.
“OUR AIM IS TO BUILD A BRIDGE BETWEEN ACADEMY AND THE REAL SECTOR”
Selva Demiralp, director of the Economic Research Forum (EAF), said, “The Economic Research Forum was established to create a bridge between academia and the real sector. Blending the achievements of the academy with real industry problems and creating a framework were among our goals. For 7 years, we organize a panel at the beginning of each year where we discuss the outlook of the Turkish economy belonging to that circle. Our aim in today’s panel is what happened from 2022 to this time, how much the predictions made at that time were, if we were wrong, if we were wrong, there were reasons, and we will seek answers for details such as what we learned from 2023 Turkey’s finances.