rain, cold and snow in sight?
![cold; snow; Portugal; time; meteorology cold; snow; Portugal; time; meteorology](https://services.meteored.com/img/article/ar-polar-a-caminho-de-portugal-chuva-frio-e-neve-a-vista-meteorologia-1673457839345_1024.jpg)
The mild temperature and the big storms of abundant rain and strong wind from the South/Southwest have been the great meteorological protagonists since winter began in Portugal. The absence of typical winter temperatures and even snowcharacteristic features of this time of year, making cold weather lovers sigh with longing. The good news is that, at the very least, the abundant and intense rain of the last few weeks, and months, practically ended the drought in mainland Portugal.
However, a synoptic situation could be about to change radically within a few days.taking into account the last outputs of our most reliable model (ECMWF) which insists on a considerable weather change for next week (although the first atmospheric signs may start to show up next Sunday, the 15th). If this scenario materializes, Portugal could be facing a very cold situation – especially in the interior – and possible snowfall in the Northern Mountains of the country and in the Central System (Serra da Estrela).
Between today and Saturday (14) pressured highs will remain predominant in our country. But anyway, some frontal systems will succeed in penetrating Portugal, leaving rain in the north (with emphasis on Minho and the Metropolitan Area of harbor – although it also falls further to the east) and at some points in the Centro Region (some locations in the districts of Aveiro, Viseu and Coimbra).
After the fast pass of the front ️, which #time if provisions in #Portugal in the next 36 hours?
1️ Slightly cloudy or clear skies ️;
2️ Sharp descent from #temperature ️ (especially the minim);
3 ️ #Wind North quadrant weak ️;
4️Ice and #frost in the interior North and Center. pic.twitter.com/draFz5J1K3— Meteor | Tempo.pt (@MeteoredPT) January 11, 2023
Polar air could arrive next Sunday
In view of the zonal flow that we are experiencing during the first days of the year, from Saturday (14) the jet will tend to be more wavy polar. Between Saturday afternoon (14th), which will still be under the influence of the South/Southwest wind, and the early hours of the morning and Sunday morning (15th) (already under the influence of the North/Northwest), a system will cross Portugal from west to east, being able to leave rain and perhaps snow (possibly at an altitude of 1200-1500 meters in the mountain ranges of the north of the country: Peneda, Gerês, Amarela, Soajo, Larouco and Barroso…among others).
Everything indicates that from Sunday the 15th, a good part of #Portugal mainland will need to strengthen the winter clothing ️.
1️ North/Northwest polar air experienced a drop in diffusion #temperature ️.
2️ Possible drop in #snow above 1200 meters altitude ️. pic.twitter.com/EGRmPHnuL1— Meteor | Tempo.pt (@MeteoredPT) January 11, 2023
If the predictions come true, the high pressure at altitude and at surface in the Atlantic will tend to rise a little from south to north – and this, – together with the dug depressions moving at higher latitudes – will cause the funneled shipment of maritime polar air to Portugal and Spain next Sunday (15). beyond the possible snowfall in the mountainsthe time will be considerably coldest in our country.
Besides the sharp drop in temperature, may never reach high levelsboth in the Northern Mountains of the country and in the Central System (Serra da Estrela).
If this meteorological scenario continues, this will be great news for snow and ski loversgiven that in Portugal, since the beginning of the meteorological winter (December 21), episodes of generalized cold, or snow, remain totally absent.
High colorful in weather scenarios
Faced with this intrusion of polar air, which on the other hand is a normal occurrence for the season of the year (but a news! taking into account this very mild and rainy winter), the presence of cold air could be even more painful between Monday (16) and Tuesday (17). This scenario is far from being confirmed (given the temporal distance), but it is a possibility!
If so, what would be behind this? The anticyclonic ridge over the Atlantic would rise from south to north more vigorously, while a great depression with multiple centers of low pressure on the surface would launch them over Europe, resulting in the formation of a “corridor” or very pronounced North flow, and in this case, we would already be under the influence of an arctic mass.
But this is not the only possible scenario contemplated by weather maps. For Monday/Tuesday (January 16th and 17th) it is not ruled out that the Atlantic pressurized highs will get closer to the Iberian Peninsula, thus causing the intrusion of cold air to be “pushed” much further east, towards Central Europe. Definitely, for now, few certainties and many doubts, but it seems that we can finally start saying: “Winter is coming!”.