Syria’s tripartition – crisis without public
It is also winter in Syria at the moment. In the north of the country, the wind blows rain and sleet across the hilly landscape. Temperatures can drop below freezing at night. “We have a very difficult and hard life. Many collect plastic waste to burn to keep themselves and their children warm,” Abu Wajih told AFP.
The region around Idlib, in the northwest, is the smallest power bloc in Syria and is controlled by Turkish-backed militias. There are a particularly large number of refugee camps there. People like Abu Wajih often live in broken tents. Running water and electricity are nowhere to be found.
Future in the refugee camp
Very few observers believe that the people from the refugee camps in northern and northwestern Syria will soon be able to return to their home villages. “There are no offers from the regime either,” says Bente Scheller, head of the Middle East department at the Heinrich Böll Foundation. “The regime doesn’t want these people back. It regards them as politically unreliable and an economic liability.
The Assad regime could hardly cope with greater economic burdens. There is electricity everywhere for just a few hours a day. Running water is also not a matter of course. One reason why large-scale cases of cholera occurred last year. Cholera has been confirmed in 13 of the 14 provinces controlled by President Bashar al-Assad.
This episode of the World Time Podcast also features an interview with Jacqueline Flory from the Aid organization tent schoolwhich has been building and running schools in refugee camps in Syria and Lebanon since 2016 to give thousands of children a perspective.
Even in the capital, Damascus, people are suffering. The economic situation is catastrophic, says Mohamed Khattab, a shopkeeper. “It’s the high prices that take people’s hope away. I see them suffering every day. There’s nothing left to make them happy.”
The regime is trying with all its might to suppress protests, human rights organizations report. Anyone who says more is threatened with torture and sentenced to imprisonment, and yet: protests broke out in Suwayda province a few weeks ago. People wanted to draw attention to their poor living conditions.
Middle East expert Bente Scheller suspects that the people who die in the Kurdish-controlled way of life are probably better off in comparison. It is the third sphere of power in Syria. “Here there is water access and little destruction because the war has only raged on a very limited scale here.” A lot of infrastructure has remained intact, especially in the north-east.
About 30 percent of Syria’s area – in the north and north-east – is controlled by Kurdish militias. People who live in this part of the country may not be doing so badly, Scheller suspects. But there was often violence here last year, then by IS terrorists and again by Turkey. In the past few months, they have attacked several Kurdish positions, with civilians said to have died again and again, official Kurdish authorities report. Nabo Ramadan, a resident of Kobane, said people couldn’t sleep for fear of rocket attacks. “They are afraid that Kobane could be attacked again at any time. It’s bad.”
Ukraine war hits Syrians too
No matter in which of the three areas of influence: the people of Syria are not doing well anywhere. The Ukraine war has made the situation even worse. Basic food and petrol are more expensive than ever.
But most importantly, world attention is no longer focused on Syria. As a result, aid organizations lack the financial means to help the people on site. Bente Scheller complains that the foreign policy pressure on the parties to the conflict is also easing. She doesn’t believe that Syria will become a united country again in the near future. “It’s hard to imagine that things will grow together again, because these spheres of power have consolidated. We see very little movement here. The informal borders have become more permanent, so these three spheres of power will probably remain so for the foreseeable future.”
Demonstration against a rapprochement between the Syrian government and Ankara.© Picture Alliance / NurPhoto / Rami Alsayed
Recently there have been signs from Turkey that it wants to change its Syria policy in the future. Turkish President Erdogan no longer ruled out a meeting with his counterpart Assad. With this step, he could only be looking for a partner in the fight against the Kurds. But rapprochement with the Assad regime could also lead to real changes in Syria. The more than three-year negotiations in Geneva for a new constitution have so far failed to do so.
High expectations of negotiations
Initiated in 2015 in the wake of UN Resolution 2254, the expectations for the committee were high – too high, say insiders like the German diplomat Carsten Wieland. “In this region we all know that you can hardly change reality on the ground with a piece of paper, i.e. a new constitution, and certainly not in Syria, where such a brutal regime has massacred its own population . That such a system should be corrected by a constitution is part of the dream world.”
Carsten Wieland knows what he is talking about. Between 2013 and 2019, the German diplomat wrote for several UN Syria envoys, i.e. special envoys – most recently for the Norwegian Geir Pedersen. Carsten Wieland was the contact person for the opposition at the UN mediation in the Syrian war. He says that, unlike President Assad, they have a real interest in a new Syrian constitution. The latter only got involved in the venture because the Russians had forced him to do so.
Putin and Assad do not want reforms
Putin wanted the constitution, actually just a building block of UN Resolution 2254 for Syria, to be tackled first. “Of course, that was a maneuver that ended all critical questions about governance and reforms, which Assad never wanted and still doesn’t want to this day. This made this process more harmless for the Syrian regime, which had no interest in the negotiations in Geneva anyway.”
On October 30, 2019, the 150-strong constitutional committee began its work in Geneva – what was revolutionary was that for the first time, representatives of the Assad regime, the opposition and civil society were to be able to talk to each other equally and in direct exchange. However, Kurds were not there from the start. Turkey knew how to prevent that. Nevertheless, this negotiation constellation on an equal footing is progress, says the diplomat Carsten Wieland.
![A man in a suit on the phone next to a black car stands: Ahmad Kuzbari, member of the Syrian government and co-chair of the constitutional committee. A man in a suit on the phone next to a black car stands: Ahmad Kuzbari, member of the Syrian government and co-chair of the constitutional committee.](https://assets.deutschlandfunk.de/b0b1a65b-fed4-48d9-b940-0d3037cb6b8a/1280xauto.jpg?t=1673284964103)
Nothing is progressing: Ahmad Kuzbari is negotiating for the Syrian government at the constitutional committee. There is hardly any interest in an agreement.© picture alliance / Keystone / Salvatore di Nolfi
However, the Syrian regime knew from the start that something positive would not develop beyond the negotiating table. “That could also develop a dynamic where the members get to know each other better. But that is also the fear of the regime. Therefore, the government members of the Constitutional Committee are never allowed to participate in a joint meal or meeting. They are always immediately isolated and have to go back to the hotel.”
Several rounds of negotiations, no result
Eight rounds of negotiations in more than three years have not brought any result – and according to Syria expert Carsten Wieland, nothing will change that anytime soon. Not least because Assad has the upper hand again thanks to Russian military aid in the war. That is why he is less than ever interested in the successful work of the committee.
Recently, Russian President Putin also questioned Geneva as the venue for the negotiations: Because Switzerland supports the EU’s sanctions against Russia in the Ukraine war, he denied it the necessary neutrality. Carsten Wieland considers this a delaying tactic. “First it was Corona, then it was visas that were allegedly issued too late and doubts about Swiss neutrality. You can see that we are talking about formalities instead of content. That’s the problem of the UN.” Despite all the frustration and all the setbacks, the UN is still clinging to the Constitutional Committee.
There are still thick diplomatic boards that have to be drilled in the Syrian conflict. Assad will definitely remain in power, also so that he cannot be held accountable for his actions during the war. For the very heterogeneous opposition, on the other hand, a Syria with Assad is unthinkable. What remains is the principle of hope.