Will the rise in Borsa Istanbul continue?
The other side of the stock market was shown to those who are new to the stock market, which ‘breaks the circuit’ last week in Borsa Istanbul. As it is known, the interest rates, whose high repressive forces have decreased in the last 1 year, have pushed the savers to seek alternatives and the interest in Borsa Istanbul has increased. According to Central Registry Agency (CRA) regulations, 1.5 million new investors have joined stock ownership since the end of 2022, and the number of investors has reached 3.8 million. While he was just starting out, he usually had experiences of ascension in this process. Therefore, the loss of more than 7 percent in the last week is the effect of the ‘panic attack’ effect in the new ones.
Yields in 2022 may not be
Let’s first look at the reasons for the sharp decline last week and then the deviation of the needle from the stock market… BIST 100 Index, which saw its historical peak with 5,704 points on January 3, dropped to 4,961 points on January 6th. In other words, the index suffered a loss of 13 percent compared to the peak in 3 days. No tangible development stands out for this drastic retreat. Although some comments mention the possibility of early elections, such a sharp decline in this index is not announced. The returned level of BIST 100, 5700 points, was an important resistance point. In Borsa Istanbul, where a record close to 200 percent was recorded last year, corrections may be harsh. Investors need to be prepared for such drastic moves from now on.
Those who want to take advantage of the high profits in the stock market, which has no alternative, dominate the credit roads. The sales of credit exits, which want to delay the position in living pullbacks, are accelerating the declines. Again, the ‘short’ journeys in the journeys of those who want to make money from downloads and the action of those who want to sell cars seem to have brought gasoline to the fire. Let’s see if there is a change in the general outlook… The pullback in inflation due to the base effect and the continuous assurance of this trend are the first signals that the high profits in the stock market last year may not occur this year. It is certain that the stock market will continue to be without alternatives for a while. Especially in the process until the elections, the low interest environment will ensure the continuation of the interest in the stock market. Some analysts interpret the correction movement as preparation for a new uptrend towards 7 thousand points.
The secret is not to panic
The number of those who think that there is no need to be pessimistic after the election is quite high. The continuation of the existing policies can still leave the stock market without alternatives. Conversely, the effective use of the interest rate policy in the fight against inclusion may open the door to the return of foreigners leaving Turkey. But no matter what, their long-term view of the stock in their hands and the creation of a growing, profitable, trustworthy accumulation with a story will have their characteristics. Not to panic in the pullbacks experienced last week, to stay away from daily trading transactions is to protect individual investors from losses. A good example of this is the 4.41% rise on Friday, after the 13% pullback in 3 days, or even the 7.65% rise compared to the lowest levels seen.
Where are the critical levels in the BIST 100 Index?
If we look at the technical situation in the BIST 100 Index, despite the hard sales last week, the upward trend that started in the week of July 18, 2022 continues on the weekly chart. During this trend, it is found that it is above the direction that is effective for this one. In this context, the support point of this trend for the next week is 4,732 points. Possible sales up to this level can be considered normal. However, reaching below this point may remove the 4.470 trend support. Technically, this point acts as a kind of ‘safety valve’ for the index. This is because this level of support may also have an impact on the ongoing positive technical outlook in terms of the downgrade index. In possible upward movements, the 5,890 point level on the weekly chart is an important resistance point. The fact that the indicators are before generating negative direction signals on a weekly basis indicates some caution is needed this week.